Race 1
5 – Keep Quiet – ran well in defeat against today’s favorite first off the claim for the Asmussen barn, and should sit a nice trip just off the early speed in here. He really hasn’t run a bad race since last fall, and the barn connects on 20% of runners off this layoff. Love him at a nice price to get the day started, and will try to beat the Chad Brown entry as well as the Pletcher (#8 Lemonist). 5-1-8.
Race 2
3 – Complexifier – I usually lean towards second-time starters in races like this, and I’ll do exactly that here with the Brian Lynch colt that made a rough debut at the Spa last month. He was wide the whole time and clunked up for a small piece, but the barn does reasonably well with both sprinters and maiden-2nd runners and the 8/17 work is promising. Irad gets the mount today and should find a nice spot early. Pairing him with the 1 (Tap It To Win) for Mark Casse to round out the exacta, and using the Christophe Clement first-timer in the tri. 3-1-7
Race 3
9 – Dabinett – we haven’t seen this Chad Brown filly in about 15 months, and her first two career tries were over the mile distance against some tough competition in Kentucky. We know the barn does well off long layoffs (28% @ +180 days), and the works make it seem like she’ll be cranked up for the return. There appears to be as many as five legitimate early speed types in here, and she showed a penchant for passing horses late in the game. How many times have we seen Irad win on horses like this in turf routes? I’m using on top here; 9-2-12
Race 4
11 – Performer – broke his maiden very impressively downstate in June and has been training like a monster in the interim (amongst the likes of Travers hopeful Code of Honor) for Shug. The outside draw should be a benefit with his proven ability to break quickly, and I’ll use him on top with two proven stalkers Payne and T Loves a Fight rallying in the lane. 11-7-8.
Race 5 – Forego, G1 $600k
1 – Promises Fulfilled – my pick of the day! First, let me say that Mitole is a deserved favorite in here and has been nothing short of spectacular from the very first race of his career. That said, he’s only run seven panels once in his career, and though he beat Promises Fulfilled that day on the Derby undercard the latter stumbled a bit and had to battle in traffic going wide in an 11-horse field. Today should present a different scenario entirely; Promises has won both of his Saratoga starts and sits at 5: 3-0-2 at today’s distance. He draws the rail and will certainly be on the lead from the bell. If he can clear and get off the rail I think he’ll be the lone speed and prove to be very tough to catch, even for a monster like Mitole. Going 1-3-6, with Firenze Fire the likeliest of the rest to close in for a piece.
Race 6 – Ballerina, G1 $500k
4 – Separationofpowers – thankfully this one isn’t in either pick 5, because I’m a little concerned that the race could fall apart with all this speed signed on. However, this Chad Brown filly and Come Dancing appear to be a level above, so I’ll use them as my top two and likely play a straight exacta. I think Chad’s horse has the advantage from a pace scenario as she’s shown the ability to stalk a little bit. Being outside of Come Dancing should be the ideal spot if they both clear, and I like her to sit just off and run her down in the lane. Dawn the Destroyer is a logical closing option at a nice price to round out the trifecta. 4-2-7
Race 7 – H. Allen Jerkens, G1 $500k
1 – Shancelot – I’ll keep this simple…. He’s the most likely winner on the card and possibly for the entire meet. A single on almost everyone’s late pick 5, I’ll only offer this in the name of contrarianism; I’m adding Nitrous on a ticket as insurance. I think he actually did some nice running late in the Amsterdam, and if Call Paul pushes the favorite just far enough, there is a scenario where it falls apart at seven panels. Not likely though, as Navarro has a monster on his hands. Give me 1-5-4 with Shancelot keyed in the top spot in any vertical wager.
Race 8 – Ballston Spa, G2 $400k
4 – Significant Form – she’s turned in two very nice races at sprint distances this summer, and Chad Brown will look to improve on his 33% strike rate with horses stretching out. It looks like the big players in this field are mostly late runners, so it might be in the cards for this one to get out towards the front and try to walk them home. She’s two for three at today’s distance in her career so the added ground is almost assuredly a plus, and even though Irad hops off for Mascha, Johnny V taking over is hardly a drop-off. I’ll use the aforementioned Mascha to finish the exacta, and I love Scottish Jig for Bill Mott to be prominently involved from the jump. 4-9-7, and likely spreading further in the late pick 5.
Race 9 – Personal Ensign, G1 $700k
3 – She’s a Julie – my one truly shocking upset pick of the day considering who the two big dogs are in here. This one has good early speed and has shown herself nicely at today’s distance the last two starts. If Coach Rocks goes to the lead she’ll likely get first run on her, and I highly trust Asmussen in spots like this even if it’s his second runner. Elate is the logical play based on track history and distance, and Midnight Bisou is arguably the most talented in the division…. But in a short field lacking pace, I’m taking a swing on the win end with the 12-1 Godolphin filly possibly sitting on a soft lead. 3-4-1.
Race 10 – Sword Dancer, G1 $850k
4 – Channel Cat – I might be oversimplifying this, but doesn’t he look like the lone speed in here? He won very impressively on the front-end in the Bowling Green and also holds a victory in his only start at today’s distance. He also has the versatility to sit off if he so chooses, and Pletcher hits with 25% of his runners coming off wins. Two local works over the Oklahoma turf have been very sharp. I’ll use Sadler’s Joy coming from the clouds and the likely favorite Annals of Time in my top three, with Channel Maker and Ya Primo in the pick 5. 4-9-7.
Race 11 – The 150th Travers Stakes, G1 $1.25mil
7 – Mucho Gusto – the only runner in the field with a triple-digit Beyer figure was last seen running his eyeballs out in the blazing heat of the Jersey Shore. Maximum Security fended him off that day, but he isn’t making the trip to New York and that leaves this race prime for the picking. Similar to how West Coast stole this race two years ago, I think he has the speed to get the early lead and the distance concerns, while valid, can be negated if he walks them down the backstretch. There are certainly others in here that make just as much sense, but I just see this as a classic late-developing Baffert runner who really showed me something at Monmouth last month. Code of Honor and Tacitus to complete the top three, with a spread of Owendale, Looking at Bikinis, Tax and Endorsed to hopefully close out the late pick 5. 7-2-6.
**Races 12 and 13 are not in the pick 5, so I’ll be using these as action plays while getting ready for college football to officially kick-off. Adult beverages will be involved with any wagers here.**
Race 12
2-9-11
Race 13
11-5-9
2019 Saratoga
Week 1 (7/13): 11: 4-3-0, +47.7% ROI ($22 wagered, $32.50 returned)
Week 2 (8/3): 11: 2-3-0 -23.2% ROI ($22 wagered, $16.90 returned)
Week 3 (8/10): 11: 5-1-1, +97.7% ROI ($22 wagered, $43.50 returned)
Week 4 (8/17): 9: 1-3-1, -76.1% ROI ($18 wagered, $4.30 returned)
Total – 42: 12-10-2, +15.7% ROI ($84 wagered, $97.20 returned)
2019 Belmont (spring)
Final Total – 65: 13-9-10, -43.8% ROI ($130 wagered, $73 returned)
2018-2019 Aqueduct
Final Total: 202: 51-37-24, -16.3% ROI ($404 wagered, $338.20 returned)
2018 Saratoga
Final Total: 60: 15-16-15, -3.6% ROI ($120 wagered, $115.70 returned)
GRAND TOTAL: 369: 91-72-51, -15.4% ($738 wagered, $624.10 returned)
Top Pick Win Rate = 24.7%
Top Pick ITM Rate = 58%