Hard to believe we’re already more than halfway through this Saratoga meet, only 9 races on today’s card with a few turf sprints throughout the card and first post is at 1:10 est. Best of luck if you’re playing along and be sure to follow me on twitter @cjfelts87.
Daily Gallop stats: Total: 346-89-67-70 (25% win, 65% ITM)
Saratoga ROI- bet $80 won $50.60 ($1.27)
Race 1 MSW 62k state bred 3 up , 5.5 furlongs turf
Selections: 6-7-3-2
Top Pick: #6 Advanced Strategy is the most logical horse coming out of a similar race here last month, finished a strong fourth and seemed to have more in the tank when watching the replay, now second off the layoff and adds Lasix. Joel Rosario stays aboard which is a nice sign too.
Next up: #7 Silver Token comes out of that same race as Advanced Strategy where he finished second, 4 year old gelding has hit the board in each of his last four starts and he could certainly get the job done but its becoming more and more difficult to trust him.
Race 2 MSW 72k 3up, 1 ⅛ miles
Selections: 2-5-1-6
Top Pick: Chalky early double, #2 Ashiham tries this distance again after a similar outing here last month, ran third as a favored entry, he certainly can improve as Johnny V stays aboard for Todd Pletcher.
Next up: #5 The Angry Man switches surfaces back to dirt which he has run well over in the past, finished second at Belmont in June going 7 panels and that was behind the talented Happy Saver. He is certainly eligible to improve as he tries going longer over dirt.
Race 3 Skidmore Stakes 85k 2yo, 5.5 furlongs turf
Selections: 5-3
Top Pick: #5 Fauci is one of three Wesley Ward entries in here, broke his maiden at Keeneland going 5.5 over a yielding surface and now steps up to stakes company as Tyler Gaffalione stays aboard. This is not a great field for a stakes race and he looks like a big threat if he can improve.
Next up: #6 Golden Pal is another Wesley Ward entry at 3-5 ML, technically is a maiden but ran second going 5f at Royal Ascot in June, we’ll see how he runs here coming off a layoff but if he can run to that last race he is the horse to beat.
Race 4 MSW 62k state bred 2yo, 6 furlongs
Selections: 7-3-1-4
Top Pick: A field of almost all first time starters so lets shop around for a price, I’ll go with #7 It’s Gravy at 8-1 ML. Kelly Breen is an 18% trainer and Castellano is a 16% jockey, with these first time starters you look to see the connections having win rates of 11% or higher so thats nice to see, consistent works and Breen is 20% with first time starters. Homebred debuts for an 11% sire with first time starters.
Next up: #3 Seven Seven is the only one in here with experience, not a great debut but he is eligible to improve as Luis Saez stays aboard,
Race 5 Starter Allowance 50k 3up, 5.5 furlongs turf
Selections: 6-7-9-4
Top Pick: #6 More Like It makes sense at 9-2 ML, broke his maiden at the msw level and now runs into his eligible condition which is a smart move by the connections, Jose stays aboard as this gelding will look for a second straight win over the Saratoga turf.
Next up: #7 Standup is the 9-5 ML favorite, has been trying at this level the past two races and has finished third in each of the last three starts. Joel Rosario stays aboard for a trainer Rob Falcone who has been very hot this meet.
Race 6 Allowance 74k n1x 3yo fillies, 1 1/16 miles turf
Selections: 2-9-4-6
Top Pick: #2 Eye of a Soldier looks to be a solid alternative to the two Chad Brown runners at 7-2 ML, ran a good race in her 3 year old debut and now is eligible to improve second off the layoff, has a good turn of foot and Alvarado stays on for Bill Mott.
Next up: #9 Passion Factor draws the outside at 5-1 ML, her 3 year old debut was at Keeneland in a grade 2 and it was a decent race from her, now gets class relief and Luis Saez hops aboard.
Race 7 CLM 40k F&M 3up, 6.5 furlongs
Selections: 4-1-5-3
Top Pick: #4 I’ll Take the Cake ships up from Gulfstream and takes a drop in class after having a bad trip, now can improve second off the layoff cutting back from a mile, won a 50k stakes earlier in the year at Gulfstream so has the back class to compete, Tyler Gaffalione gets the mount again and he is 2 for 8 at the distance.
Next up: #1 Solitary Gem steps up the class ladder first off the claim for Leah Gyarmati who has gotten a longshot home first off the claim, has three wins this year and looks like an overlay around the 6-1 ML.
Race 8 ALW 64k n1x state bred 3up, 5.5 furlongs turf
Selections: 9-2-6-4
Top Pick: #9 Crack Shot is a speedy 4 year old adding blinkers so he should going straight to the front; in three tries over this Saratoga surface he has a win and two thirds so should at least be considered for an in the money finish. He is dangerous if he can improve as Junior Alvarado gets the call.
Next up: #2 Adios Amigos beat 40k maiden claimers last out but I like this aggressive step up from John Terranova and the fact that Castellano keeps the mount, 4 year old gelding looks to improve again at a price.
Race 9 MSW 62k state bred F&M 3up, 1 mile turf
Selections: 3-7-6-8
Top Pick: #3 Micromillion is interesting to me at 9-2 ML, Todd Pletcher is stepping him up in class to the msw level so he’s not running for a tag, second off the layoff he can improve and Jose Ortiz keeps the mount sticking around for the finale. Would expect him to be close to the pace and then make a move down the stretch.
Next up: #7 Kept Waiting tries again at this level after setting the pace and being denied last out, now cuts back in distance which should benefit him as Lezcano keeps the mount. Should be on the front end at 5-2 ML.