Monmouth Park Racing Analysis — Sunday, May 12, 2019, by Neil Petrocelli

Ready for summer on the Shore’s greatest stretch.  First Sunday card of the meet, and Mother Nature is not cooperating – rainy and chilly  – looks likely everything will be going on the dirt.

Race 1:  9-8-6

Sunset Beach getting to be a professional ‘stays in the rained off the grass type’ – but is not yet a ‘professional N2L type’ – only a few races at the condition.  Like the consistency shown and the intervals between starts. Takes this from stalking position. Pointer comes off a mini freshening during which time she made the barn change to a perennial Mth leader.  Tactical enough to also sit and stalk. Tom’s Music dirt form is definitely suspect but perhaps last two races signal an improvement that will carry over.  

Race 2:  2-5-3

Indisputably Linked is hard to look past here.  Best turf races would totally take this – one rained off start wasn’t awful – and was at a higher level.  Sits close. Tazmonian Devil has more than one race that would make him competitive here.  Drop to the bottom here makes him double tough. Been o.k. on off tracks.  Macho Pronto just keeps dropping to find a competitive level – and this is it.  Rounding into form? Needs a more alert getaway – but can get a share.

Race 3:  5-4-10

National Honor – top barn, jock returning, coming off a good race.  Dirt shouldn’t be a problem. Wicked Boy let’s forgive the 1st lifetime out, sprinting here.  Looks tough, either surface – coming off a premature, wide (and costly) middle move in last.  Nice work for this. Affluential – back with more friendly N3L foes.  Makes a big difference. Looks tough for Vitali.  

Race 4:  7-2/6-3

Johansson comes in from sunny Ca.and off a layoff.  She was likely meeting better in Ca. Looks to sit an outside trip off a series of strong works.  Super Tigress/Bridge to Bklyn – same connections (not an entry?) Either can take this, though prefer ST off the layoff.  BtB has the speed and will be gunning to the front – off track helps chances of lasting. Sweeter than Wine will improve.  

Race 5:  7-3-2

In a race where several look to make the lead, we will assume Sweet Sami D. will sit the outside, stalking trip.  Several well spaced works for the return, with the last signaling her readiness.  A 3yr. old vs. older this time of year – not usually a smart move but we’ll take a chance.  Missive – let’s forgive the one race over the track and assume rounding into form.  Smart barn and jockey combo – a closing sprinter may be her game. Kodiack Katie first race off a 7 month layoff – has run well fresh, loves the track.  Will be finishing

Race 6:   10-2-5

Ash n Em tries every time which is unique in this field.  The Paynter’s seem to run on anything and improve with racing.  (Another 3 yr. old vs. older – Uh Oh!) – will be formidable on an off track.  Watchin the Wheels barn always merits respect , never run this cheaply or in a N2L – major reasons for improvement here.  Port Salerno last was a major improvement – and note, it was in a rained off event. Looks tough off last with nice works in tow.

Race 7:  4-3-5

Wallace seems to have a class edge, and is bred for an off-track.  While most of his ‘running’ lines are on synthetic – work over the Mth surface – indicates there should be no issue.  Should be live at a price. JR’s Rhythm – connections are hitting on all cylinders – coming off a layoff – but has a win over the track in the slop.  Benefactor looks to close on into pace setup by stablemate.

Race 8:  5-6-2

In a race that looks to decimated by scratches – we’ll take Absentee to come off the bench and take this.  Steady work pattern, hasn’t run a bad one (including winning debut) and has performed on an off track.  Analyzethisandthat another coming off a layoff, 3f work on the 23rd shows speed is still there, will use to his advantage.  Sunshine Charlie likes an off track can get a share.

Race 9:  7-5-3

The Right Path looks to be a good one.  Breeding suggests he will improve with racing, has the right connections, and was not disgraced in Tampa Bay Derby in his 3rd lifetime start.  Last out and recent work signal readiness.  Regally Irish – stays in, in the mud?  Sire excelled in mud. On a hot streak, connections there, and Maragh in to ride.  Formidable. Fix Me A Sandwich – looks to have succeeded with the rain dance – will take them as far as he can.

Race 10:  3-1-4

Never Felt Better – drops in for win for barn earning/wanting recognition.  Winning is the best way to get noticed….Community Court – takes another drop, though this time off a much improved effort at Tampa.  Looks tough. Cyber War – takes the drop of drops – right to the bottom, off a year layoff.  Check out the breeding here – must have issues – but this level may forgive those issues.  

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