Welcome back and happy horse racing Saturday @thedailygallop. My focus is back on Santa Anita where thank goodness we see a better card today than what was rolled out yesterday. I do my best to stay positive, afterall I adore Santa Anita and there are certainly enough downers out there who will throw punches any chance they get, but the 4 and 5 horse fields yesterday was gross. Really hoping the meet ends strong.
If you followed along last week, it was an exciting ride late in the card. I was alive to the late Pick 5 and late pick 4 to three horses in the final worth $40k, $25k and $20k (the fav, The Hunted). My capping last weekend was based on the Turf bias and speed that had been killing it for the past month, but the rain gave it a change and took that bias away, and unfortunately for me I did not adjust soon enough as Oscar Dominguez roared home to beat The Hunted by a nose to eliminate my tickets. What a roller coaster of emotions as I thought I was home free as they came into the stretch. That’s horseracing though, and when you play as much as I do, you must be prepared for these tough losses and tough breaks, then move on to the next with lessons learned that hopefully position yourself for another big payday soon.
Not playing as heavy towards bias as I did last week, but yesterday was all about being upfront or just off the lead again. With no rain, this could remain the same so give an uptick to pace setters and stalkers and a downtick to deep closers.
On to today!
Early Pick 5: 1,2/ 4/1,5/ 4,5/ 1,7,8
Late Pick 5: 1,7,8/1,3,4,6,7/2,6,8/2,4/3,6,10
Best Win/Show Bet: Race 7 #2 Over Emphasize
Race 1: A Maiden Claiming affair for $50k tags and a mix of 3 YO and older horses. This time of year I still see it as a big disadvantage for the 3YO’s against older and the ML shows it as the older horses here are your fav’s at 9/5, 2-1 and 2-1. Top pick here is #1 Aussie Fox (2-1) who has had trouble out of the gate in 3 of his last 4 starts, but is progressing on beyers and thorograph in each start. This will be start 5 in the last 5 months, but have been well spaced and has good workout reports coming into this. Timeform US Late Pace speed fig would indicate this horse is a deep closer, but this is skewed from the poor starts and would think Mullins would like this horse closer to the leading bunch today. Has hown early speed in the past. #2 Boru makes his second start off the layoff today where he was confidently placed in a 9F race on May 5th off a year rest, took money at the windows and even set the pace. Gets a small cutback for today and will be an early pace presence. Would expect improvement today and also has positive works coming in. I will not be using the third pick on all tickets, but consider the other older in here #5 Conquest Smartee as this sprinting maidnen has hit the board in 7 of 8 career turf sprint races at Santa Anita. The lone route was not a good one and what is causing me to be cautious as Sadler tries the stretch out again. Would imagine he will be forwardly placed and could hook up with Boru to set this up for Aussie Fox, but Conquest Smartee does have strong speed figs that make him dangerous here.
Fun Fact: Cesar De Alba, former leading jockey at Los Al saddles his second horse in his new adventure as a trainer with #6 Seven Oxen. Horse was claimed for $40k from the Desormeaux barn and adds blinkers today.
Race 2: Still a few 5 horse fields today, ugh, and this is one of them. I will be singling the fav here in #4 Tiz Coffee who is off the claim for red hot Andrew Lerner. The horse has hit the board in 9 of 13 starts and in the summer of 2018 was competing in $50k Allowance levels and competing. The 4 YO daughter of Sidney’s Candy has sibs that were similar in there high % of hitting the board and with Thorofigs below 10 which would win against this bunch. Her own best is an 8 from Del Mar last year. Ruben Fuentes gets the call and is 30% when teaming up with Lerner.
Race 3: This will be a good race to watch and see how the front-end speed plays on this turf as on paper it appears Snazzy Dresser is the speed of the speed here, but could see pressure from Prat and the #2 horse which could set it up for the other three. I am playing this as the latter, as the 9F seems too far for either of these two. The workout reports are glowing about #1 Tough It Out who will be the top selection here as 3 of the last 5 races on the SA Turf have resulted in a “6” Thorofig, rivaled only by #5 TwentyTwentyvision, the second pick here. The 8 Yo has continued to plug along and was performing well in the claiming ranks before being claimed by Slugo Racing and Puype who jumped him up to AOC40 where he was in over his head. Todays Starter Allowance could be just right, but will need to outperform the 1 here.
Not so fun fact considering my top selection: Brice Blanc is 0-14 when teaming with Sadler in his career. Normally a front end specialist, we may see Tough it Out a little closer today.
Race 4: Now we are talking, a nice MSW field of 8 here today going 6F with 7 of the 8 going out for the first time. #4 Comical Ghost for Baffert is a 3YO son out of Hystericallady (an 8x SW) who has been putting up B+ work out grades. Baffert near 50% on first time starters this meet, so do not expect the 5/2 ML here, expecting even money. Also out of a 8x SW is #5 Belath for Ron Ellis is the only one in the field to have raced, coming in a closing 2nd after saving ground in debut. Belath will be on Lasix for the 1st time and has also put up B/B+ works recently. Finally, Tilted Towers for D’Amato and Little Red Feather will be the 3rd selection here. This gelding has not missed a work since getting back going in Mid March and has shown evidence of early speed in his works with the speedy Lombo stakes winner, Lombo. D’Amato can have them ready first out and with the work pattern should be fit for this debut.
Race 5: This race will make me a hypocrite as we have a 3YO in here vs. older that I will be playing in #8 Foster Boi. Debuted in March and has improved each and every race while fitting the stalk and pounce style I like to see at a mile on turf here. Has been working out great with B/B+ grades so expect more improvement today. A big key to handicapping this race is how much you believe Silver Summers upset gate to wore victory last month was legit, or a result of the track bias. The 7 thorofig put up is best of this group but today should see more pace presence upfront. If he does get away withut pressure, I wouldn’t be shocked if he repeats, but I am playing this as a “bounce” and will look elsewhere. #1 Rinse and Repeat exits the same race as Foster Boi and Unbridled Ethos, where he took money down and ran well before being caught in traffic and hen finishing well for 3rd. With a clean trip and a fast pace up front, expecting to be part of the picture late. #7 Cono enters his 3rd race of his 4YO campaign for the McCarthy barn. Has not found the winners circle since his maiden victory 2 years ago, but has always been confidently placed. Takes a small drop in class here and retains Desormeaux, could surprise at a price.
Race 6: The second 6F MSW dirt race today again with many firsters and familiar trainers. Workout reports are mixed on this bunch and none are standing out heads and shoulders above the rest. Top pick is the Hollendorfer first time starter #4 King Jack, who has three consecutive gate works, including a bullet and where it appears he has some strong late kick, and gets Mike Smith on board (25% career with Hollendorfer). Jimmy Creed’s offspring are 16% first time out, Will be spreading here with the horses coming in with experience (3,6,7) and the Baffert firster #1 Morning Snow.
Race 7: The Grade 3 Honeymoon goes through Callahan who is hitting at a 37% clip this year. Both #6 Maxim Rate and #8 Hostess should be included on horizontal tickets but I am taking a shot against on the win end with top pick #2 Over Emphasize who has hit the board in all of her last five races, and closed nicely on a speed favoring track last month against a slow pace. Since being put on turf two starts ago this horse has begun to really show up and has been logging impressive works recently. Early speed figures show that she should be off the leading group, but not far back. At 6-1, with improvement, which should be expected, will be a great value at 6-1 especially if the track is playing to the front end. On that note, I will also be taking a shot horizontally with the likely speed, #7 Sold It. The 2 year old debut on turf was her best effort and has since has tried dirt, caught soft turf, and then all weather track at GG. So this will be the return to firm turf and will be a price at 10-1+.
Race 8: The Grade 2 Santa Maria features the 1-5 ML fav Paradise Woods. 1/5 is crazy, I know this horse is super talented and always puts on a show in the morning, but this is a horse that has wone once in the past 10 races (last time out winner). I think the money will pour in and I see this as an opportunity to beat the many who will single. If PW gets out to an easy lead and relaxes, game over, but Just a Smidge may need to do some dirty work here as it really is her only shot to win from the #1 hole with PW in the #2 slot, so I expect a duel, or atleast some early pressure to make it a little tougher on the fav. Will need Just a Smidge to hang tough though through atleast 3/4 to be able to set up a late charge from Tapped and La Force. Top Pick for the upset here is #4 Tapped, second off the layoff for Baltas and won who competed against the best in 2017 (Abel Tasman, American Gal, Dream Dancing, Daddys Lil Darling) and comes in off a 2nd place finish where she too closed into a front end bias off an 18 month rest. We get an upgraded to Prat today who has done some special things with LNJ Foxwoods already this year (Derby) and recent B+ works show this horse could be ready to impress today. Doubt we get 8-1, but even at less will play much larger in the horizontals.
Race 9. The finale today is a 5F Turf dash. Man I miss the downhill, as these 5F are funky races on this course. Drayden Van Dyke, the go to rider for Glen Hill Farm and Proctor on the West Coast lands on the #3 Queen of Mean for her debut for Glatt instead. Could be telling of this one, as she has been working fast in the morning and Violence babies are debuting at a 22% win clip. Love the gate blowout on the last work, look for this one to show early speed and control the race, like this top pick here. Will also include the Glen Hill Farm second out horse #10 pricing who gets Gryder on board and will look to improve off a tough trip in debut. Third choice is the Mullins first time starter, another that should show speed in the #6 Tell it Again. Has winning sibs with strong thorofigs on turf and a recent bullet work showing the speed.
Race 2: