Sunday May 31st
Horse population issues starting to catch up to these cards, as we see two five horse fields in the early sequence today and again in the G2 Maria Stakes which still has some nice star power. The Early pick 5 sequence will still be the focus of this write up, as usual, as this low take out and consistently strong value (paying more than parlay value more often than not) making this a good bet for horseplayers.
Best Bets: Race 5- #1 My Super Mario (8-1) Race 8: #1 Seaside Dance (7/2)
Race 1: 8F DIRT MDCLM $50k 3YO+ PACE: Slow/Moderate, contentious.
Projection: 3-4-1 Horizontal: A:3 B: 1,4 C: 2 X: 5
We kick off todays card with one of those 5 horse fields today where we see a Baffert B-stringer, #3 Fay Dan in here for a tag. A couple general observations on this one. First, being out of Curlin, we expect improvement and maturity from 3 to 4. On the dam side, all three sibs that are 4YO or older have won multiple races now and improved multiple points on Thorograph. Works have been good, and in company with Gingham in one, and $3.3M Cezanne (yet to debut) in the other, but second best in both. I do like the speediness shown in the two gate works. Then there is the jockey upgrade, not sure why Roman got the call last out, Cedillo is a big improvement here and continues to gain Baffert mounts (so far is 2 for 7, with 2 others ITM. These small fields can tend to be a jockey race, so big advantage here Cedillo. Going to eliminate the two 3 year olds (#2 and #5 )from consideration in here, as for the 2 it will be first time vs. older and the #5, despite the drop from MSW 3+, was 160-1. Figures, breeding, and works not strong enough to overcome this age and mental maturity gap for me. #4 Invictatatus is a breeding angle play. This 4YO debuter for Cerin (13%-win rate but solid $2.91 ROI for 3YO MDCLM debuters) has some solid dam side breeding. Dam was a 3x winner with best figures on turf routes, but sibs Silent Bird (6x winner, 2 GSW all on dirt) and Morgan’s Guerilla (3x winner with a “0” Thorograph figure on dirt route). #1 Mongolian Legend has the best Thorograph figures in this bunch but also is 0-9 and has struggled at SA going 4:0-0-1. Had a short break with recent workout notes from @clockerandy stating this one looks improved lately.
Race 2: 5.5F TURF CLM $32k 3YO+ PACE: FAST! Possible duel between 1 & 2.
Projection: 4-1-3 Horizontal: A: 1,4 B: 3 C: 2,5,7 X: 6,8
Top pick from last week’s article that had scratched, #1 Raul Rosas, shows up here today but has me wondering “why?” Trying to get in the mind of trainer here, who has a very small stable so every dollar and every race really counts. The purse today is 16k less than last week and today is in for a tag vs. the optional tag last week, but that tag brings $12k more today should he have been available in both. This placement tells me that they felt this would be the softer spot, and after drawing the rail last week, likely cemented their decision to try this spot, as all in, assuming a win and claim the total income would be similar, so why not take the easier spot and chance to pull a better post. And then, rail is drawn again. Also, could have entered him into the $35k N3L claimer in R4 today (that has $2k less purse), a field that appears much softer.. It’s not like here ae health concerns wit last weks scratch, as trainer worked him instead with him firing of a 46 second 4F work. As I said last week, the rail is not ideal for the 5.5F Turf Sprint, but this one has really nice natural early speed that should allow him to be on the lead early without much urging. Pederson is hot, 5 for 14 this year and we see his ace rider Tiago get the call again where together they are 8 for 22 (6 of those wins with star Fashionably Fast). The last time this horse was on the 5.5 Turf here at SA was a $25k claiming event with a salty field of 12 in February of this year. In that race, he was challenged for the lead but Tiago never panicked and set strong fractions of 21.9/ 44.3 while finishing with gas in the tank and galloping out nicely. Unlike last week, Raul Rosas does have some pace competition with the #2 coming in from Golden Gate as he appears the only one that could go sub 22/44 in this one, but this will be first time turf for the son of Violence so hard to tell if that speed from all weather will translate. If those 2 burn it up on the front end, got to look for those that can finish. #4 Mystery Messenger has been working great in the morning and if you look at the lone 5.5F Turf Sprint here at SA in January, you see an of the pace win against slow fractions for this surface/distance, finishing the final 3.5F in under 40 seconds, impressive. The claiming race in January at 1M came back as a strong one, with 4 next out winners an in that one chased red coded fractions for 6F and still fought hard in the lane after taking a brief lead in stretch. 5.5F seems to be the right match and this level is very winnable for this one. Top pick. #3 Blackout is a claim back for Peter Miller and owner Gary Barber, and Miller has had some time to reacquaint the horse at SLR with 6 consecutive works. None of the works were necessarily fast, so appears to Pete that this was all about conditioning and keeping the horse fit. This 7 YO has had a hard time finding the winners circle, going 1-11 in 2019/2020, but win was at this level, albeit against a softer bunch than he will see today as the time and fractions were on the slower side. Just cant count out Miller with a horse that makes sense at 5.5 on turf. Looking for a longshot that could jump up at a price? Consider #7 Juggles, the other O’Neill in the race for top owner Reddam. Figures are light but they are from an early/mid 3YO season where this one has had a break and time to mature and comes in off a nice steady work tab at SLR including a couple nice bullets.
Race 3: 8F DIRT CLM $16k N3L F&M 3YO+ Pace: 2 likely lone speed, but stretching out.
Projection: 5-2-1 Horizontal: A: 2,5 B: 1 C: 3 X: 4
With all the success Glatt has had on dirt sprints thus far, interesting to see him stretching out #2 She Cherie for her second start in his barn when never going longer than 6.5F in her 8 race career. Last out, she stumbled out of the gate and was able to recover and win, mowing down the competition late and showing a different dimension. With Maldonado back up and little true early speed in this race, got to think the plan is to go back to getting her on the lead and play catch me if you can. There is zero routing on the dam side pedigee, so curious to see if this one can hold late. With that, I will be protecting with Prat and #5 Reds Sacred Appeal who has won at this distance and should be coming late with all the trust in the world that Prat, in this short field, can time the middle move correctly to get this one within two lengths at the top of the stretch.
Race 4: 8F TURF MSW $50k 3YO+ PACE: Moderate but contentious
Projection: 7-8-5 Horizontal: A: 5,7,8 B: 9,10 C: 1,2 X: 3,4,6
Competitive race, and one I will look to spread in. 2 weeks ago, I had much of my early fate invested on Quick Finish only to be disappointed with a prolonged duel and an impressive comeback win for Whooping Jay in a solid final time where Quick Finish stayed on to finish just 1 ¼ behind winner. 2 weeks later, comes back on turf, where he has won before. The interesting condition component here is this one being entered outside of state bred restricted competition, where the state bred bonuses can be fruitful, but not offered in this race and this will be the first time in for a tag. A use, but too many question marks to press. #7 Little No Way comes in for Marquez who continues to be strong when it comes to turf sprints, career hitting at 27%. This one was claimed of Miller lats May, and then entered into a dirt route at Los Al, before hitting the shelf. Came back at Los Al after an extended layoff and now shows up in a salty 35k claimer on the surface he wins most at and where the horse has had success. Also attracts Prat, a must use. #8 Unbridled Skye comes back of a long layoff here for Puype and looks like a true contender. I like these 4YO’s that have had a long layoff since mid-year 3 seasons, as if cranked and ready to roll can show big improvement. Was running in OC80k levels and just missing at 5F (likely a winner at 5.5F). Like the solid company in the morning works and notes that he appears fit and ready. Could be a nice price. I will also be including the 2 likely pace setters (#2 Via Egnatia and #9 Morgan S.), as if either can shake free early and avoid being collared, could win at this level.
Race 5: 5.5F DIRT MDCLM $50K 3YO+ CA BRED PACE: ?
Projection: 1-7-2 Horizontal: A: 1 B: 7 C: 2,3,6,9 X: 4,5,8
Not a great group here and I am landing on 2 prices as my A picks. #1 My Super Mario is one of 2 4YO’s against a group of 3 YO’s, and the only one of the 4’s with a race under his belt. Steady training pattern at SLR since the March debut where he was bet down to favoritism only to show a lot of greenness (broke outward, stayed wide, not straight, blew turn). Came right back in first work with a sharp 47 second 4F work and since has been kept fit in 5F easy works. Likely to take money, like a lot vs. this group. #7 Pack Twelve for Jeff Bonde debuts, and Jeff has been profitable with firsters. No sibs, and unraced dam but Grand Dam was a stakes winner for Juddmonte and Frankel.
Other notes: #8 Scary Fast Smile has solid “B” works coming into race, but Sean McCarthy 0-34 career with first time starters. Will pass. The appearance of Prat on the Gallagher debuter is encouraging, but this is another trainer that builds foundation versus having them cranked to go first out. Career 2 for 65, 0-4 with Prat, and 0-9 in Ca bred restricted for first time starters.
Race 6: 5.5F TURF MSW $50k 3YO+ F&M PACE: ?
Projection: 9-4-2 Horizontal: A: 9 B: 2,4 C: 3,5 X: 2,5,6
-No write up but some quick notes:
- Michael Mccarthy not one to win first out but #5 is one to watch for future. Half to Qurbaan and working well.
- Pederson, trainer of #2 can win first out. Works are not fast, but this one is bred well
- Win the Game is a half to a couple really nice dirt routers. Interesting debut placement
Race 7: 8.5F DIRT G2 Santa Maria Stakes $200k 3YO+ PACE: FAST
Projection: 2-1-4-3 Horizontal: A: 2 B: 1 C:3,4 X: 5
This may be a 5 horse field, but wow, the 3 main contenders are all legit and potential stars. I think Mike Smith and Sherriff’s learned that Hard Not to Like prefers a target, as last race in the G1 Beholder Mile tried to set the pace and got caught in a duel and finished with lowest figure in last 3. Today, I see Fighting Mad getting to the lead, and Hard Not to Like and CeCe both chasing and looking to pounce at the right time. This always creates the chance that Fighting Mad shakes lose, and 2nd off the layoff could be sitting on big improvement. Last race felt heavy pressure. In the end, I think CeCe is a star and the win at OP was upper impressive especially considering the wide post, lost ground, and rail bias. Earned a negative Thorograph figure (a great thing). The pick for me. Want to note that Horologist’s effort in the Apple Blossom was way better than on paper. Lots of trouble and Prat could be dangerous here with a horse that has been super impressive recently in the morning. If wanting to include a price with CeCe, this is the one.
Race 8: 8F TURF CLM 32k N1X 3YO+ F&M PACE: lone Speed #1
Projection: 1-7-8 Horizontal: A: 1,7 B: 8 C: 5 X: 2,3,4,6