Sunday February 9th
Hot Jockey: Flavien Prat- After a slow start, has picked it up of late winning 5 of last 16.
Cold Jockey’s: Bejarano continues to be ice this meet, 0-27 on turf and 2 for 46 in total. Umberto Rispoli could be on the hot jockey list for turf, but he is still figuring out the main and is 1 for 19 there.
Hot Trainer: Baltas barn is red hot. 30%+ in last 30 days, 50% in last 10.
Cold Trainer: O’Neill remains on top here, 1/30 in last 30 days and total win % is 9% with only 33% hitting the board. Unusual for a guy near or at the top of the leaderboard year after year.
Early Pick 5:
1,4,5,6,7/2/1,4/2,3,4/1,3,5,6,7
4,5,6/2,3,4/1,2,3,4,5/2,3,4/1,7
Race 1: 5.5F TURF CLM $25k 4YO+ F&M PACE: Potential lone speed (6)
Projection: 6-5-4-1 Horizontals: A: 5,6 B:4 C:1,7 X: 2,3
On Friday I wrote about how I felt the turf was starting to tighten up and we have been seeing a higher percentage of gate to wire winners of late at the 5.5F distance. If rain holds off to begin todays program, we may have a good advantage to begin. In the opener here today, we see a clear “speed of the speed” in #6 Square Peggy who gets top gate rider back up in Maldonado. Square Peggy with Maldonado have won 3 of their last 6 together, all since October, and two at higher levels than this here today. Knapp claimed her two back for $20k out of the option ranks and brought her back in 2 weeks on dirt in an allowance field where she faded against stronger after setting a strong pace. Returns to turf here in another 2 week break, so the only concern here is fatigue with this being her 3rd start already in 2020, but see @clockerandy and his note from last weeks workout, “Still very sharp waiting on Sapphire Kid going under wraps in 23.1, 47.4 galloping solidly in 100.3. On edge right back. —Grade: B”. The ML favorite, #5 Drift Away may have found her ideal surface and distance, winning her last two on the turf from 5.5F. Not only that, did so impressively from off the pace in what were two slow paced races. The kick this one has in the lane is impressive, and if Square Peggy gets any company at all up front, could set u very well for Drift Away today. Note, has beat up on Swirling in 2 straight on this surface and Swirling had clean trips. Watch Drift Away in his October win, well off slow pace, swung 5-6W, and still stormed home. Working well in the AM for Lerner, recent B grade and gets Prat back for 4th consecutive ride. I smell a claim coming. #4 Seaside Dancer cuts back in distance for the first time here today for Peter Miller, who is a turf sprint specialist. After claiming this one for $40k 3 back, Pete tried routing her on turf twice with no luck. Caught some fast red-coded fractions in a 9F route that left her empty at OC40k level, and then got caught in a duel last out where she had the lead at the top of the stretch before fading. Feels like the cutback should really help here, but not sure if she can keep up with Square Peggy early or hold off Drift Away late, may use defensively and would include underneath in exotics.
Race 2: 6.5F DIRT MDCLM $50k 3YO PACE: Moderate, likely lone speed (2)
Projection: 2-4-3 Horizontals: A: 2 B: 4 C: 3 X: 1,5
Small field of 5, with 3 horses to consider here. Will lead off with the favorite, #4 Arc Nation. Go back and watch replay of last. Is it just me, or did it appear to be a pretty weak effort in the final 200 yards by Valdivia, almost like he thought he had the race wrapped up. Impressive move on the turn and began to kick away, but got nabbed at the wire by a strong closing effort. Returns 2 weeks later without a work at the same distance and jock retains mount, have to think he learned something from last. My Top pick however, is second choice on the ML, #2 Constitutionaffair who ironically, had a very similar result when watching his debut back, a clear dominating lead in the stretch and caught by closers. But, his is a bit different, as these were slow fractions they closed into, not good for this one as you would think he would have kicked away. Fuentes efforts on this one in the stretch was clearly not at 100%, but you got to think that was for a reason, and when you connect he dots on the voided claim, makes more sense. Something must not have gone right causing Ruben to take it easy. Now we see a strong work last week, graded a B and comments saying he couldn’t have been moving any easier. A single consideration in here. Speaking of strong works, #3 Arch Ability has been super impressive with back to back B+ works, unusual for MDCLM types. Haven’t seen this one since June of last year, so clearly is coming back strong off the layoff. The knock against him are the ice-cold connections of Bejarano and Desormeaux. Keith got his first win of the meet in 20 starts yesterday with French Rose.
Race 3: 8F TURF MSW $55k CA Bred 4YO+ Pace: SLOW, unclear on who wants lead
Projection: 4-1-2-3 Horizontal: A= 4 B=1 C= 2,3,5 X=6
Chalky, but man did I like #4 Big City Bane’s run after nearly a year layoff, losing by a length to a talented Kakistocracy. Carla Gaines is 4 for last 8 in running second off the layoff, and recent works (w/ Kakistocracy) are telling this one is fit. Also exiting the same race are Fravel, Sea of Liberty and Bud Knight, all are horses that have strong late kick and figs that fit here, and Bud and Fravel both get jock changes. I am concerned though about pace, as this race appears void of it. If O’Neill decides to send #1 Watch the Dip ( a square Eddy where he could have some early foot) he may find himself on a comfortable lead to hold onto. Was not a strong debut, but Doug brings him back in one week, an 18% move when doing so with Reddam horses. Use defensively.
Race 4: 8.5F DIRT CLM $40K 4YO+ PACE: Moderate, possible duel.
Projection: 4-2-3 Horizontal: A= 4 B=2 C=3 X=1,5,6
#4 Winning Element will be odds on for a reason, but #3 I Can Do This could be applying some pressure here as figs are similar as is running style. If Winning Element, using outside position and having Prat on board could sit off the lead and put he race in Prats hands to put the pressure on when time is right. If there is a duel, I think #2 Accountability is very interesting in here. This one has run 26 straight on turf, despite regularly showing the ability to handle and thrive on dirt in the mornings. This will be the 6th different jockey in as many starts, but Cedillo as one of the top jocks here is certainly an upgrade. First time with no blinkers, first time in 26 starts on dirt, first time Cedillo.
Race 5: 8F TURF AOC $40k N1X 4YO+ F&M PACE: FAST/ Contentious
Projection: 7-1-3 Horizontal: A: 7 B: 1,3 C: 5,6 X: 2,4
#7 Kitty Boom Boom is top pick in here, coming in off a short break for the red-hot Baltas barn and getting turf specialist Rispoli on board. Solid works leading into the race here and Baltas is best at these 1M turf distances. In his last start at DMR off at 6.5 month break, was rank in the gate and then chased a hot pace before dueling inside in the stretch and fading. Lots of potential for big improvement here today. #3 Desert Oasis gets as big of a jock upgrade as you can get on turf from Bejarano to Rosario for her first race since July when she won a MSW in Del Mar. Quite a bit of speed signed on in here, so like Kitty Boom Boom, should sit 2nd flight and make a move in the far turn. Thorograph figs from 2 summer starts fit here today, and with the time off and good base of works in prep for todays return should equate to improvement. #1 Arctic Roll moves up in class from winning a 35k claiming race and has early foot. With all the speed signed on in here, Prat may have to be on the engine early, which appears to not be the preference on turf for this one. Thorgraph figure of 6 in last is the top in this field, and was over this surface and distance so hard to ignore, afterall Lerner and Prat are 4 for 7 together this meet.
Race 6: 8F DIRT ALW 50k 4YO+ F&M PACE: Fast and contentious
Projection: 4-3-1-6 Horizontal: A:3,4 B: 1,6 C: 2,5 X:
Race 7: 7F DIRT G2 SAN VINCENTE STKS $200K 3YO PACE: Very Fast and contentious
Projection:6-4-1 Horizontal: A: 4,6 B: 1 C:5 X: 2,3
The hype of #4 Nadal versus the 2YO champ, but I will be going in another direction here with one of my early favorite 2YO’s #6 Ginobili. He ran an 83 Beyer as a 2YO in August (5 Thorograph fig) over another hyped up Derby prospect Honor AP. Following this, The Del Mar Futurity was a train wreck for all and in the Speak Easy on Turf he was off slow in a 5.5F dash which will always be tough to overcome but did finish in 11.6. has been working really strong in the mornings, and now comes back to ideal surface and sprinting distance with an ideal post. Dangerous at 5-1. Now look, Nadal’s debut was super impressive but he is going to again have company and pressure up front in this one, both from the inside and outside. Can he be comfortable between horses? Or will he need to be used even more early to stay clear and out of that situation. Some risk here to the odds on fav, but excited to see how this all shakes out. With all the speed in this race, would be wise to include #1 Fast Enough who will be the lone closer of the bunch and has won his only 2 races from off the pace against statebreds, so will be interesting if he can handle the steep class jump.
Race 8: 9F TURF MSW 55K 3YO Fillies PACE: Very Fast and contentious
Projection: Horizontal: A: 4,8 B:5,7 C:1,9 X: 2,3,6
#4 Lady Timmy Ho is top pick here as I am looking for one that is likely to see improvement in this one. Took money in each of her first two starts where she was posted wide in each, off slow in one and disappointed. Owners are hot, as LRF Racing are leading this meet and combine with hot trainer Baltas whom they have had big success with on turf. Today gets Rosario and if rain holds off, firm turf. If it does rain, I would spread a little deeper in this one.