Key Stat Watch
Hot Jockey: Flavien Prat has won 21 of his last 72 races in the last 30 days (38%).
Hot Trainer: Mark Glatt has won 10 of his last 29 races in the last 30 days (34%).
Hot Trainer: Richard Mandella has won 5 of his last 15 races in the last 30 days (33%).
Weather: 76 degrees and partly cloudy. Expect fast/firm.
Race 1: 2YO Md Sp Wt 50k [S] – 5F Dirt
Pace Prediction: N/A
Selections: #7 Big Fish 6-1, #4 Intense 5-2, #3 Bolden 9-5
#7 Big Fish is out of sire Mr. Big, who is firing with 2YO first time starters at 36% (11-4-0-2). This is an angle I have been playing recently. Our top pick last week was also out of Mr. Big, and he looked like he would have won easy had he not run into some gate trouble. Big Fish worked 4F in 47 seconds two back, and the most recent workout at 5F in 1:01 makes me want to take a shot with this horse at a price. Big Fish also lures Rispoli away from #4 Intense, which is encouraging as Intense ran an impressive race and closed strong for second on May 22nd. However, the experience here and the added half furlong should make the Intense tough here as well. Finally, #3 Bolden for trainer Peter Miller and jockey Flavien Prat looks like a must use. His two most recent works are strong, and his G1 winning sire is 19% for 2YO firsters. Will be a short price.
Race 2: 3YO OC50k/SAL40k [F] – 1 Mile Turf
Pace Prediction: Fast/Contentious
Selections: #3 Goodtingscominpink 7-2, #1 So Much Happy 4-1, #6 Malibu Cat
The pace in the second race of the day is likely to be hot as the #1, #4, #6 and #7 look like they will all go to the lead. As of late, the turf course has not been friendly to deep closers, so I like the #3 Goodtingscominpink to sit off the pace and be on the lead on at the top of the stretch. This last out winner got a similar trip against maidens off a ten-month layoff and was good enough to win by about 2 lengths going a mile. Fuentes stays aboard and I expect another large improvement here. The #1 So Much Happy returned to the turf on March 6th going a mile and an eighth and held on for second while obtaining her top Beyer. The cutback to a mile combined with the recent bullet workout should help this speed horse hold on for second. Underneath I will use the #6 Malibu Cat for Mark Glatt and Flavien Prat, who are both winning at an exceptional clip right now. I am skeptical that Malibu Cat can handle the distance, but this is a must use jockey/trainer combo.
Race 3: 3YO+ Clm 25000N2L – 1 Mile
Pace Prediction: Moderate
Selections: #3 Justin’s Quest 9-5, #2 Rogallo 5-2, #7 Claim of Passion 6-1
Not much to like here in this one-mile claimer at the 25000N2L level. The #3 Justin’s Quest will likely get the lead and will look to wire the field. The class drop should help a good bit and having the lead at the top of the stretch for dirt routes is a strong advantage at Santa Anita. First time gelding #2 Rogallo returns off a three-month layoff. Drops in from sprinting at the OC 40k level and has Beyers that are competitive here. Trainer John Sadler is 0/14 in the last ten days however, so I will leave underneath. #7 Claim of Passion lures Santa’s second-best jockey, Abel Cedillo and that is enough to merit selection for third in a lackluster race.
Race 4: 3YO+ Clm 35000N3L [F] – 1 Mile Turf
Pace Prediction: Fast
Selections: #6 Arctic Roll (GB) 2-1, #5 Kittyhawk Lass 7-2, #11 Dorita’s Lemon 15-1
#6 Arctic Roll comes back for her second start off the layoff, to which Andrew Lerner wins 27% of the time out of 26 starts. Was placed at the 40k allowance level last out, which may have been a bit too tough for her. She drops back into the claiming 35000N3L level where she has already won at this condition. Prat reunites for the mount as well which is encouraging. #5 Kittyhawk Lass drops out of a similar level, and cuts back in distance. If she can return to her form on that January 1st race, she will be tough here. Longshot play #11 Dorita’s Lemon makes her third career start for trainer Eric Kruljac. We liked her enough sprinting 5.5F at the claiming 25000N2L level on dirt two weeks ago where she dueled and held on for the win. I am guessing Kruljac must think she is in good enough form to stretch this filly out to one mile and switch to turf. Worth a shot at a price.
Race 5: 3YO+ Clm 12500N2L – 6.5F Dirt
Pace Prediction: Moderate
Selections: #2 Tromador 2-1, #1 Bob’s Sniper 8-1, #3 Include the Tax 4-1
This race does not seem to have much pace other than the favorite #2 Tromador who is trained by Ryan Hanson and ships from Los Alamitos for this race. He should have no problem getting the lead early. Distance should not be a problem as he broke his maiden sprinting 7F earlier this year. #1 Bob’s Sniper drops down in class, switches to his preferred service and distance, and attracts Abel Cedillo for the mount. A lot to like here, and these changes should all work in his favor. #3 Include the Tax drops in from the allowance levels, which is a bit concerning. However, DRF Formulator shows us that trainer Michael McCarthy connects 45% of the time when sprinting and Franco getting the mount (5/11). Cutback and switch back to dirt should help, but the two horses to his inside will likely keep him wide throughout the race.
Race 6: 3YO+ OC40k/N1X[F] – 1 1/8 Mile Turf
Pace Prediction: Moderate/Slow
Selections: #3 Kookie Gal 9-5, #1 Unicorn 6-1, #2 Nice Ice 5-1
#3 Kookie Gal is the horse to beat in this race. She returned from a three-month layoff to finish fourth at this same level. In that race she was finishing strong, and only lost by a length. The added distance should help her cause, as well as Flavien Prat getting the mount this time around. #1 Unicorn is confidently hiked up in class from the maiden special weight level, where Unicorn broke her maiden going a mile on the turf. Has been working well and will save ground on the rail. #2 Nice Ice will likely be the pace setter here. Has had three straight bullet workouts in the morning, and she must be included in case she gets loose on the lead. There are question marks about the added distance so I will leave underneath.
Race 7: 3YO+ Md 25000 – 1 Mile Dirt
Pace Prediction: Slow
Selections: #7 Mongal Altai 6-1, #10 Next Revolt 2-1, #5 Pour On the Cole 4-1
Triple Crown nominated #7 Mongol Altai returns for his second start going this distance and drops in from the Maiden Special Weight ranks. Trainer Enebish Ganbat wins with this move 45% of the time out of eleven starts. Additionally, the dirt was wet that day which I do not believe Mongol Altai took a liking too. Furthermore, he raced against some very strong competition that day such as Shooters Shoot, Friar’s Road, and Lane Way. The other Triple Crown nominated entrant #10 Next Revolt makes a similar class drop, to which trainer Dan Blacker is 44% with the move. Will be competitive here, but at what is likely to be a short price I prefer to take a shot elsewhere. #5 Pour On the Cole returned from a nine-month layoff and stretched out to a mile on the turf in his three-year-old debut. Obtained a 61 Beyer for the effort, which is competitive in this field. Looks like the he wants dirt anyways, so has a shot to improve here.
Race 8: 3YO+ Clm 32000 – 1 Mile Turf
Pace Prediction: Fast
Selections: #5 Contagion 5-2, #3 Captivate 10-1, #2 The Creep 4-1
#5 Contagion drops in from the OC40k level for Doug O’Neill, and gains Abel Cedillo for the mount. He probably needed one off the seven-month layoff last out and I am hoping he improves here (although he is coming off a three-month layoff now). Figures to get the right trip sitting off the pace while the horses to his inside duel. #3 Captivate will send for the lead and is reunited with trainer Vann Belvoir, with whom he has won with in the past. Belvoir hikes this horse up in class and is 36% off the claim. Early speed should have Captivate positioned nicely at the top of the stretch, which is an advantage here. #2 The Creep also shows early speed and ran a close second going a mile on a day that heavily favored closers on the turf in January. The increase in class is nice to see, but Hanson is only 3% on the turf so I will leave underneath.