Hello and welcome to another Friday of racing analysis and selections for Santa Anita Park. Last week we had 2 on top winners resulting in a slightly negative ROI. Looking to rebound this week, so let’s get to it.
RACE 1: 2-3-5
Though just a field of six, this Cal Bred OC is a tricky race to get a handle on. 5-Fantasy Heat has done nothing wrong, coming from off the pace in debut at 5 furlongs a month ago to get up by a neck, though was cold on the board at 15-1 that day. 3-Opus Won broken maiden last out earning career high 85 BRIS speed figure and has superior connections in here in Flavien Prat and Richard Baltas, both hitting over 20% for 2019 and 6 of last 14 together. Figures to be on or close to lead again today but will have company. Set a torrid early pace last time out which the early quarter of 21.3 and 45.1 for maiden fillies seems suspicious. 2-SEDAMAR has tried today’s level twice already resulting in a 3rd and her last race 2nd. Martin Garcia regains mount and should have this 3 year old Filly a bit closer to the pace than she has been last couple. Garcia 30% with limited amount of turf starts, and is the top pick here. Will take all three mentioned for early Pick 5 however.
RACE 2: 5-9-4
So we get a MSW for two year olds thrown in the mix here, three FTS and three coming out of a May 31 MSW won by our top pick that day Fast Enough. 9-Cal’s Gem was the early front runner in that 5/31 race before being overpowered by the winner, But was still 5 1/2 lengths ahead of 3rd place 6-Next Flight. Needs a scratch to draw in but if he does obviously a major contender again today. 5-SQUARE DEAL is a FTS for, NOT Doug O’Neill! Actually this son of Square Eddie debuts for Simon Callaghan, who hits a solid 15% FTS. Sire Square Eddie hits a very nice 17% on firsters, and attracts top circuit jock Prat here. $230K yearling purchase has a hidden 3 furlong gate drill in his works. All systems seemingly on go. 4-Cheap Cheap Cheap(my wife’s nickname for me) set the pace in May 10 debut before fading to 3rd beaten 3 lengths. Getting Lasix today for Doug O’Neill who has his go to guy Mario Gutierrez on today. They’re hitting 7 of last 25 together. Nice maintenance 5 furlong work since debut. Think I have the right 3 here for Pick 5 play.
RACE 3: 3-1
Small but talented field here for this $80K OC going 1 Mile on turf that has 2 former Graded Stakes Winners and a horse that ran in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita just 2 1/2 weeks ago. 3-LIAM THE CHARMER finished dead last last time out in Qatar in a Group 1 there but in the winter nearly won the G3 San Gabriel as a 7-2 betting choice and won the John Henry last September. Like horses that have been running marathon turf routes getting cut back in distance like ‘LIAM’ today. Also loves Santa Anita(9-4-1-2) and won his only try at the mile distance. 1-Higher Power tries turf for first time in 10 race career though they tried with him two back at Fairgrounds. By Medaglia d’Oro out of a Seattle Slew mare, the surface switch shouldn’t be an issue. Also John Sadler putting blinks back on today. Will only use these two in Pick 5 though it’s a head scratcher due to not knowing who provides the pace in here.
RACE 4: 7-3-1
This race is TOUGH to decipher, like the last race hard to figure who gets the early lead here. My guess it’s either 2-Play Money or 5-Melbourne adding Blinkers who are out in front early. 7-SATCHEL PAIGE has had two career races and had bothered starts in each of those races. Still managed in the money finishes in both starts despite the trouble. My thinking is if this 3 year old colt can have an uneventful start today will be put in a much better position down the lane to contend for win honors. 3-Delta Forum tries dirt for the first time after a couple of turf runs, getting Prat again and 2nd time Lasix and Blinkers. Remember that last event was bet down to almost even money favorite. 1-Sidepocket Action most experienced of this group and comes in off a pair of 3rd place finishes at today’s level. Steve Knapp 24% 3rd off the layoff and will be in a prime stalking position early. Using the 1,2,3, and 7 in Pick 5.
RACE 5: 5-7-8
We end the early Pick 5 and start the late Pick 4 sequences with this OC going 5 furlongs on turf. 5-STRICTLY BIZ has only been seen once, a dominant 4 length gate to wire triumph last summer at Los Alamitos going 5 1/2 furlongs, now off 9 months and comes back to try turf. Think he takes to turf just fine, sire Fed Biz 16% with debut turfers and trainer Brian Koriner 21% off long layoffs. His Dam has produced two turf winners already, and if my assertion is correct that he will take to turf, could very well be the early speed here. 7-Yes I Am Free won a listed Stakes at Gulfstream in February and placed in a listed Stakes on synthetic at Woodbine. Makes first start for Steve Miyadi and is another who will be forwardly placed. Using just these two for the early Pick 5.
Pick 5 Play: 2,3,5/4,5,9/1,3/1,2,3,7/5,7$72 investment for a $.50 play.
RACE 6: 7-3-6
Have to say this is the best card in terms of quality I’ve had the pleasure of analyzing since doing Fridays for The Daily Gallop. Another $80K OC here, this going 6.5 furlongs on the dirt and though 7-THE HARDEST WAY was no match for Grade 2 company on Memorial Day weekend before that ran a career best 106 BRIS figure dominating OC foes at Keeneland by almost 7 lengths. Gets Big Money Mike Smith aboard who is “only” 43% in Sprints this year. Should be close to the early leaders. 3-Mr Vargas May be that pacesetter they all chase early on but hasn’t been seen since last August crossing wire first in an OC at Del Mar before being DQ’d to last. Is fresh and his speed makes him dangerous. 6-Hot Sean has won 2 of last 3 and was a fan of the cutback from two turns to one last time out. His 6-4-0-2 record at Santa Anita makes him a must use. Should mention that 2018 Robert Lewis victor Lombo makes 2019 debut and is cross-entered in this race and the previous race on turf. Speed figure wise lacks compared to others but Orat/D’Amato combo is lethal.
RACE 7: 7-5-3
Another OC here going 5 furlongs on the turf and actually went back and rehandicapped it after not being satisfied with my original assessment. 7-GYPSY BLU is sort of an all or nothing sort, either she wins or is off the board. However when it comes to turf, she’s been 80% Money, and though her last race was the exception, that was a $100K Stakes going a mile. Has a win only try at today’s distance. 3 of 4 at Santa Anita. Looks like the one to beat. 5-Kentan Road was my original top choice but I downgraded because she seems to be a need the lead sort, which she may get today but doubtful it’s uncontested. Also won last out but has never strung two wins in a row together. 3-Rocky Policy can be excused for that last effort off turf after breaking through the n1x OC level and will be stalking today under Talamo. Trainer Andrew Lerner red hot at meet But is 0 for last 10 dirt to turf.
RACE 8: 8-6-4-1
The finale today is a $25K MC might be reaching here with 8-INFO’S TREASURE, who while has beaten a total of just 3 horses in 2 races was 5-2 last out at this level so I’m hoping the bad break is what caused the poor performance and not that she’s just not as good as she was bet to. 6-Zillinda missed by a half length last out in her first try vs this level after a career vs Cal bred MSW. Be wary however as did fail as the even money favorite in last try. 4-Thanks is second off the layoff and is 5 of 8 in the money lifetime. Should set a stalking trip in here. 1-Cat’s Desire could be dangerous as looks to be early leader in a race with little other speed
Late Pick 4: 5,7/3,6,7/5,7/1,4,6,8 $24 ticket