It’s always fun to celebrate Preakness Day under the Twin Spires. Pay attention to late jockey changes as sometimes they’ll be named on horses but take mounts at Pimlico anyways.
Race 1- 5- Gianna’s Gift looks to hold a class edge over these as this one drops to the lowest level of her career. Should be able to track the inside speed from the outside. Think cutting back, switch surface to a dirt sprint, and drop should produce a top effort today. 4- Don’teatmycookies comes in from Santa Anita and a long lay-off. Blinkers off. Drops 50% in claiming price. Looks to be speed of the speed. 6- Molly’s Game drops to her lowest career claiming price. Deep closer projects to take back and make one late run. Will need a speed duel to develop between 3 and 4 to have a win chance.
Race 2 – 3- Midwest Justice is a pretty descent horse. Fired off 4 in a row last summer at Indiana. Second last time in stakes company at Will Rogers behind a nice horse Welder who won next out. I think he sets the pace and wires true field as Richard’s Boy has lost all his early speed and looks to have gone south. 7- Sir Navigator was 3rd last out at this level on opening night here behind a nice Eddie Kenneally Gulfstream shipper in Bella Tapisserie. Step forward off that race puts him close this afternoon. 4- Sharp Art was a nice long shot winner at 18-1 at Oaklawn against conditioned $32,000 horses last time. Second time blinkers made a difference that day as it finally put him in the race early and got him up close to the pace. We think he projects to sit off the top pick and has a chance to gather ‘em in down the lane. Bullet drill on 5/6. Hill seems to have hopped off the top pick to ride this one. Hmm??
Race 3- 6- Saracosa never really got into a comfortable position, in a better race than today’s, last out at Keeneland while still hanging in there to hit the tri. We think third off the layoff, switch to Lanerie, projected outside tracking position make this one a reliable top pick for us. 4- Goodbye Earl had a rough trip last time in the race after the KY Oaks. That’s too was a nice race. We’d prefer to have Leparoux either put her on the lead or just off the 1 if they decide to go from the rail. Thinking these tactics will produce a race closer to the maiden breaking win, which puts her close. 7- Good Creation stalked from a little uncomfortable spot between horses last time and still ran on to be second at 10-1. But we faded to third off a few stats of: 0-6 at CD is a worry, 5% trainer Von Henkel has been cold this year, and this one could get parked wide the entire trip. Also projects to be bet off that co-best last race Beyer of 75 with the 5 (Sweet Diane) who as of writing this we think will go to Pimlico and scratch. If not she’s a must use here.
Race 4- Thick field of bottom level maiden claimers going nine furlongs to close out the early pick 4.
13- Pow the AE is the choice. The nine furlongs should be right in this one’s wheelhouse with a Curlin(sure)/ A.P. Indy (dam sire) pedigree. Drops to $10,000 after going second for $20,000 just seven days ago. Post isn’t a worry as the extra 1/16 of a mile in the run up to the first turn should give Alvarado plenty of space to tuck over into descent position. If this one draws in, it will go as our day’s best bet. 1- Malibu Mo takes a huge class plunge from MSW to bottoms. Kind of concerning and why we faded to second. They liked him enough two back on debut go off at 5-2 in a 9 horse bunch at Oaklawn on Arkansas Derby Saturday, finished second last. Then at Oaklawn stretched out in a 9.5 furlong MSW on Thurby day, and again finished second last. Maybe they are being realistic, or maybe the owners (who are also the breeder’s) just want to cash out and get him claimed away. Tough call. Improvement off the figs earned in both starts make him a fit on figs in here fwiw. 7- Red Rover has a race at Turfway late last fall that makes him a winner today. But off the two 2019 clunkers he’s displayed, and the plunge to the bottom from special weights, it’s tough to have much confidence on this guy. 2- Sarcillo has a few on the board races that make him a consideration today. Leparoux stays. He and Hartman win at CD at a 30% rate with a rock solid $3.43 ROI.
Race 5- Wide open race. Any of the eight can win. 7- Ike Walker has a terrible trip last out at Keeneland in a solid field of $25,000 claimers. Fractions in the gate. Leapt at the start. In tight early. Taken wide both turns. And was wrapped up in the lane by Leparoux after the disastrous trip. He’s capable of much better. And those last year allowance races out west give him a big chance today. Let’s give him another chance today off the claim into the Assmussen barn. 1- Sightforsoreeyes comes out of the aforementioned Belle Tapisserie race from opening night which we have a high opinion of. No shame in only being 4 3/4 off that winner after a wide trip, especially considering there’s a substantial drop into $25,000 company off that race. Better trip from the rail draw should put him in better position today. H easily could have entered in the $40,000 Race 2, but chose a more aggressive spot here. 6- Malibu Wood should set the pace off the long layoff. Trainer hits a 23% clip with these types but a negative ROI suggests they are overbet. Has wins on fast, off tracks, and synthetic. So he’s a runner. Wonder if this 1 turn mile will be a little sharp and demanding for him off the bench. Seems like he prefers longer with slower early paces.
Race 6- Wide open turf race where trip will be key. 2- Mission From Elle showed talent when popping up the rail on debut and taking off from a nice MSW field at Gulfstream. Won that race like a good thing. Walsh though enough of her to try stakes company off that debut run. Kinda of a move into a hot pace last out angle we’re taking today. A more evenly distribution of energy by new jockey Landerous might get her back to the form of the debut run. Plus we’ll like the price here. 1- Diva Day is ok. Won on debut at Turfway. 4th of 11 in the Bourbonette Oaks second at Turfway. Nice race for her second start. Then got the shuffle from the 2 hole last time in a congested trip. Goes to Birdgemohan today. And should get a better more relaxed trip with the rail, instead of another horse, on her left today. Improving speed figure pattern in each race means she’s getting better race by race. 10- Maid in the Mist will try to pull off another wire job from the 10 hole. Last time Gaffalione was tremendous in doling out a 49:3/5 opening 1/2 mile. Typically don’t advise taking horses on top who are raising in conditions off a favorable trip last out, and to win today will have to wire the field with a slowish pace. Just don’t see that happening. But I do think she’s good enough to hang around underneath and that’s why she’s our third pick.
Race 7- 3- Sea Shark was claimed from Pletcher last out off a moderately disappointing 3rd at 8-5. Two exacta horses that day did come back out to win. So the race was live. Two back just beat a nose in MSW company at GP. Freshened up. Steady breeze pattern coming in. Should be in good early position on or near the lead. 10- Spirogyra is debuting for a tag for Cox (31% $2.48 ROI) and owner breeder Mueller Thorobreds. We’re ok with the tag because if he’s claimed away the breeders get their cash out of the horse. It would be different if they bought the horse at the sales for a bunch of money and are ok with taking a six figure haircut right away. But that’s not the case here. Aggressive spot is ok with us. Breeze pattern suggests he’s got some speed. Would like to see a few more longer works than just 1/2 breezes, but oh well. 4- Game Day Decision drops in for a tag first time today for Wilkes/Leparoux. Thinking six furlongs might be a little sharp for this guy and $50,000 may not be low enough. But could uncork a rally late to get in the unders spots.
Race 8- 8- Jacktastic just missed last time at Keeneland while jammed in behind in the rail till the 1/8th pole. Project improvement third off the layoff. Has a win and a second over the track. 2- Bourbon Country went favored in the aforementioned Jacktastic race. Wide from the 6 hole and could never level up with the winners. Maybe the added fueling will help today as he’s produced a few useful efforts at this distance. Calvin Borel in the saddle. So look for his blue cap to be glued to the rail. 7- You’re Killin Me is a reclaim for trainer Robertino Diodoro. Was in good form last summer and early fall for this barn. Last time lost all chance when taken back from the rail draw to last to try and circle the field. With Cohen back in the saddle should be a little more forward today.
Race 9- 4- Shahroze has been a really productive horse for owners Eclipse Thorobreds and Head of Plains since coming to the states. Swept by a Grade 3 field last summer at Woodbine going today’s 12 furlongs. Barely got edged out by the veteran Nessy last time at Keeneland making his 2019 bow. Now with that one under the belt, this race looks like a money run for this group. Tiz A Slam ships in from Woodbine for Ontario based connections of Attfield and Bahen. Solid 4th last out in the Elkhorn at Keeneland. Rail draw and tactical speed are advantages in three turn races. This horse fits on form, class, speed figures and has the fixings of one with a big win chance. 2- Nessy dropped into allowance company to get a long needed win after many underneath performances in graded company. Now back up in class and trip. But does like the Churchill lawn as he’s got two wins over it. Could be moving in the right direction off that confidence builder last time.
Race 10 – Tough race to start the late double. 8- Iconic makes his second start of 2019 off a nice second for $50,000 at Keeneland going a mile. Now drops in for $40,000. Alvarado stays. Has two races here last summer against allowance company which win this race. A slight move forward off that last race and this race goes through him. 1- Indigo Yankee looks to be breezing well into the 2019 bow. Laid off since Saratoga last year where he won a nice starter race going 9 furlongs. Course and distance winner must be respected. 7- Tactical Pursuit was a wire to wire winner at Keeneland last time, which was the 2019 bow and first dirt route race. Tough to suggest he’ll get the easy lead wire job trip he got last time, but merits respect off that effort and likely will improve second up.
Race 11 – 2- Call to Victory looks to break through in her third career start. Promoted to second last time after getting bumped in deep stretch in her second career start at Gulfstream. That race came up fast on the speed figures. The debut run was solid only beat 3 1/4 in a fast race on figs. Third out. Good post, trainer, and turf jockey. All systems go. 8- Platinum Paynter was second best at Keeneland against similar. Race on figs came up competitive. Debut run at Gulfstream was promising. Repeat of those two numbers puts her close. 5- Chocolate Bridge is the wise guy runner of the race. Promising debut run as a baby in the always quality Saratoga turf races. Troubled start in the 2019 bow from a tough 12 draw at Gulfstream. Then got trouble again top of the lane in a quality turf MSW at Keeneland, favored that day. Dirtied up form on a promising horse leaves this filly un-exposed to the public, and those are the horses you make money betting on. 5-1 or higher is our value line. Those three buy the race in the late picks in our opinion.