Race 1: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo, 6 1/2 Furlongs
The Terry Eoff entry of (1) Empire of Gold and (1A) Irish Silver figure to be favored here. Both are exiting the same maiden race of January 11, where Empire of Gold finished an outkicked second after prompting the pace. In his career, he’s been second twice, and crossed the wire first once, but was disqualified. He doesn’t look like a horse who wants to pull away from others, as evidenced by his races where he gets to the lead and stops. Maybe this field is weak enough where it won’t matter; we’ll see. His entrymate made a very strong rally to get fourth in that race, which is especially impressive considering the speed-favoring nature of the Sam Houston track. Unfortunately for him, he’s right back on this track today.
Steve Asmussen sends out two in here. The (5) Hard Candy was well-bet on debut at Remington Park, but faltered badly and finished sixth. Asmussen is good off a layoff, but this horse hasn’t had any workouts since December 21. His other horse, (6) Storm King, is a first-timer being ridden by Ricardo Santana, in town for the big stakes. Considering he probably had a choice here, it’s telling that Santana jumps aboard this one. Going to have to watch the betting on him.
Race 2: Allowance (n/w1x), 4yo and up, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
The early pick 4, with the low 12% takeout, begins here. Ten have signed up. (2) Shirl’s Ready has the speed figure edge in this race, having run brisnet figures in the high 70s/low 80s in each of his last four grass races. He’s a closer who tends to fall short. In his five grass races last year, he hit the board four times, without a win. He’ll make his first start November 10 for the Robertino Diodoro barn, which is usually pretty potent, but has just one win on the SHRP season thus far. (5) Gray Hope goes out for Asmussen and Santana, and has three wins from his last four races on grass. He wasn’t a factor over a wet dirt track here last out, but getting back to his preferred surface should do the trick. (10) Morhawk is another one who has a strong late kick, but doesn’t have much speed on the front end. Two starts back, he closed well at Remington, but missed by a neck against Oklahoma-bred allowance horses. This is his first start since October 18; he might need a race.
Race 3: Allowance (n/w1x), 4yo and up, Fillies & Mares, TX-bred, 7 Furlongs
Two horses have the spotlight in this one. (2) Bold Legend comes in from Delta Downs, where she won a n/w3 claiming race going away last out. Trainer Karl Broberg (7-for-26) has had a strong meet, as has jockey David Cabrera (10-for-36). She’s run a brisnet figure of at least 75 in six of her last eight races; only two others in the field have done that even once in their last eight. If you’re going to single anywhere in the early pick 4, this is the horse to do it with. (4) Blue Darter is a lightly-raced filly making her first start since May 4. She’s 2-for-3 lifetime, with her lone loss coming at this level in her first start against winners. She has lots of early speed over a speed-favoring track, so if she gets loose, that could spell trouble for the presumptive favorite.
Race 4: Starter Allowance (n/w2), 3yo, Fillies, 6 Furlongs
Broberg and Cabrera have another speedy filly here. (7) Boston Cadillac ran them off their feet last out, winning against Louisiana-bred claiming races by almost seven lengths. The outside post is not ideal, but if Cabrera can hustle her enough, she might pull it off again, especially over this speed-favoring track. (6) Party Lights also has speed, and is drawn directly to the inside of her chief rival. She broke her maiden at Churchill Downs last out, battling on the pace and drawing off to the win. She’s improved her figure steadily in each of her last three races, peaking at a 77 in that maiden win. It’s going to be interesting to see if Quincy Hamilton will send or try and rate her. (2) Big Tiny is the best closer in the race, always coming from far out of it to either win or come close. Last out, she beat a n/w2 claiming field at Remington easily, rating just off the pace and drawing away late. The key for Deshawn Parker will be to keep her about two to three lengths off the pace.
Race 5: Frontier Utilities Turf Sprint, 4yo and up, 5 Furlongs (Grass)
The stakes action begins with a competitive sprint stakes on the grass. (1) Roger Brown isn’t the classiest member of the field, but he’s got lots of speed. He’s won three races in a row at three different tracks, winning on or near the pace in every one of them. He got a good draw for his running style; look for Lane Luzzi to blast off with him and try to take them all the way around. (4) Fast Boat also comes in here on a winning streak, with two straight victories at Kentucky Downs and Keeneland. His figures were great last year, and he has the class, with a third-place finish in the Kentucky Downs Preview Sprint at Ellis Park back in August. He has the opposite running style of Roger Brown; he always comes from far out of it. In a five-furlong sprint, this isn’t ideal. Those wins last year came at 6 1/2 furlongs and 5 1/2 furlongs. He’s a good exotic candidate, but win betting can be risky. (10) Real News made his first start off the layoff a winning one at Fair Grounds, scoring in a n/w2x allowance with a good prompting trip. A three-time stakes placed colt, he’s lightly raced and has a good pressing running style. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a career-best race out of him. (11) Jazzy Times closed well in his last grass start, missing by a half a length in an allowance that was comparable, quality-wise, to this race. He has great late pace and speed figures, and hopefully won’t fall too far behind that he leaves himself too much to do.
Race 6: Stonerside Sprint Stakes, 4yo and up, 6 Furlongs
(1) Malpais makes his first start off a very long layoff; he hasn’t been seen since a seventh-place finish in the Chick Lang Stakes back in May. He won two in a row last spring, including a stakes score at Charles Town. His run-and-gun style plays well over the Sam Houston track, but who knows how he’ll be off a long break? (2) Pete’s Play Call scratched out of the Duncan Kenner Stakes at Fair Grounds last week to run here. He’s coming off a big win in the Bonapaw Stakes over that track. The crusty veteran tends to rate and pounce. In a race loaded with speed, that could work to his benefit. (7) Takes Two to Tango almost pulled off a 69/1 shocker in the Louisiana Cup Sprint last out, but couldn’t sustain his run over the long Fair Grounds stretch. It was a big effort, too; he got involved in a fast early duel and almost got it done. He might get involved in another duel if Malpais shows up.
Race 7: Texas Turf Mile, 3yo, 1 Mile (Grass)
(1) Pixelate closed well to get up in the Central Park Stakes at Aqueduct, despite falling behind a slow pace. He also made up good ground to just miss in the Awad Stakes. He’ll get lasix and Florent Geroux for the first time. (4) Billy Batts almost pulled off a 55/1 stunner in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf last out, but couldn’t quite finish the job and was second. Flavien Prat, who was aboard when this ridgling broke his maiden, jumps back in the saddle. In his last three, he’s hit the board, but has struggled to pass others in the stretch. When Prat rode him, it was the only time he really pulled away from others. Definitely worth a look. (7) Chimney Rock raced once around two turns, and he lost by seventeen lengths. He improved sharply when cutting back to one turn, including a good second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. Considering his one route was a poor one, I have to be suspicious. (10) Bodecream closed well in a n/w1x allowance at Fair Grounds last out, losing by half a length. He’s taking a big jump in class, but his rally was strong enough that if he can duplicate it, and there’s no reason to believe he can’t, he’ll be heard from in the late stages. (12) Jack and Noah will go long for the first time. He’s a speedy colt, having been first or second at the first point of call in each of his three starts. In the Atlantic Beach Stakes, he was unchallenged on the lead, and consequently drew off to an impressive score. Can he work a trip like that this time? Given the post and the class, not likely.
Race 8: Houston Ladies Classic, 4yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles
When (1) Serengeti Empress wins this race by the length of the stretch, many people will want consider her the next Midnight Bisou. There’s not much speed that can go with her, and the way this track plays, she will waltz to an easy win. Just remember to take it with a grain of salt.
In terms of who to play underneath to try and make some money: (5) Mylady Curlin was an impressive winner of the Falls City Handicap last out at Churchill, drawing off to an easy win after a great trip. She made her bones in small-level stakes last year, winning four of them while earning over $600,000. She’s never faced a horse of Serengeti’s Empress’s caliber; will she encounter a class shock? (6) Street Band was dismal in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff, but was a multiple graded stakes winner last year. I feel as if she’ll be at a pace disadvantage here, with her mid-pack style putting her in trouble if Serengeti Empress gets loose.
Race 9: John Connally Turf Cup, 4yo and up, 1 1/2 Miles (Grass)
It’s going to be interesting to see how (2) Cross Border does going three turns against graded stakes company. He’s a horse who’s always on or near the lead, and it’s served him well going shorter. He ran a career-best figure in the 12-furlong Joe Hirsch at Belmont back in the fall, but figures in long races have often be a bit out of whack, due to the slow paces usually set in them. Prat gets the mount for the first time. (7) Marzo is already proven around three turns, winning the Sycamore Stakes at Keeneland back in October at 14/1. He disappointed in the Red Smith two back after a wide trip, then was in the hunt in the Fort Lauderdale Stakes last out. He’s definitely got the class advantage. (9) Dot Matrix finished an even third against better in the Red Smith last out, with a career-best figure. He didn’t have as much of an excuse as Marzo, as he sat near the pace, but simply didn’t have enough turning for home. He looks like the kind who will make what looks like a menacing move on the turn, only to then flatten out. (10) Tracksmith tries twelve furlongs for the first time, coming off a win in the Woodchopper Stakes. This will be his 4-year-old debut, after a 3-year-old season that saw him steadily improve throughout the year. Against a field of crusty routing veterans, he might be up against it. Still, he intrigues me. (12) Bemma’s Boy was fourth in the River City last out after a wide setup. Take out a start three back at Churchill when he dwelt at the start, and he’s been running big figures while putting in good closing kicks every time out.
Race 10: Jersey Lilly Turf Stakes, 4yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 1/16 Miles (Grass)
We’ll bring it home with 12 fillies and mares on the grass. (6) Dream Passage has been in blinding form as of late, with three straight wins on the pace. Florent Geroux would be well-served to be aggressive with her. (11) Curlin’s Journey recovered nicely from a slow break at Santa Anita last out to finish fifth. She might have won the Red Carpet two races ago if not for a rough trip. (2) Winning Envelope has a similar running style to Curlin’s Journey, where she tries to come from far out of it. She was a decent-closing fifth in the Pago Hop Stakes last out at Fair Grounds. She’s been steadily good over her last dew.