Race 10: Breeders Cup Distaff
Distance: 9F
M/L Favorite: #4 Midnight Bisou (6/5)
My Pick: #5 Dunbar Road
Pace: Expect a fast and contentious pace set by: #9 Serengetti Empress, #7 Secret Spice, and #10 Mo See Cal
Horse to beat: #4 Midnight Bisou
Steve Asmussen has done an amazing job training Midnight Bisou. The last time Midnight Bisou lost was at the last Breeders Cup Distaff losing by 3 lengths to Monomoy Girl. Since that race she has won 7 races in a row. She is the deserving favorite and absolutely the horse to beat.
Biggest Contender: #5 Dunbar Road
This 3 year old filly out of Quality Road has raced 6 times in her career with 4 wins, with her biggest win coming in the Grade 1 Alabama back in August. After her win in The Alabama she came back in the G1 Spinster (against older horses) facing (#11) Blue Prize and Breeders Cup Classic Contender, Elate. She rode the rail the entire race, which was NOT the place to be that day at Keeneland, and finished a good third. The winner, Blue Prize was widest of all coming down the stretch in in the 6 path and Elate 3-4 path while Dunbar Road sat on the rail. I could see her easily improving off this effort which on speed figures would put her right on par with, or above, Midnight Bisou. She will likely get a favorable trip sitting 4th or 5th behind pace setters of #9 Serengetti Empress, #7 Secret Spice, and #10 Mo See Cal. There is major upside to this filly at what seems to be a distance that will suit her well, My pick.
Other Contenders:
I don’t see any other contenders that could win the race, however, I will be using these horses underneath in order of preference:
#5 Ollie’s Candy (15-1): Ollie’s Candy Has improved speed figures in every start of her 4 year old career and gets Joel Rosario. If she improves again it will put her in the mix at an expected 15-1 or higher. She will sit behind the speeds, just in front of Dunbar Road, and will get first crack at the pace setters.
#3 Street Band (10-1): Street Band is an Improving 3 year old filly who was able to take advantage of pace collapse in her Grade 1 Cotillion victory. She will drop out of the back at the start but make one big run turning for home. A hot pace will set it up well for this filly who can easily get the distance.
#1 Paradise Woods (5-1): This 5 year old mare has had a very up and down career facing some extremely tough competition in her career. She is coming in second off the layoff and gets one of the hottest jockeys in California, Abel Cedillo. She has the speed figures and the back class to get in the superfecta.