Race of the Week: Risen Star
Saturday February 16th: Race 12 at Fair Grounds. The $400,000 Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes presented by Lamarque Ford and run at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt for three year olds. (Post Time: 7:02 PM EDT).
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
Selections: 14-6-3
(14) War of Will: The barn of trainer Mark Casse sends out this son of War Front looking to pull off a Lecomte Stakes (G3) – Risen Star Stakes (G2) double, a feat that since 2005 has only been accomplished twice (in 2009 by Friesan Fire and then in 2015 by International Star). War of Will is also looking to become the first horse to win from post position 14 in the last seven years (it actually appears he will be breaking from post 13 after the runner occupying that spot, Kingly, officially scratches). With an exquisite turf pedigree (War Front over a Sadler’s Wells mare), War of Will was initially campaigned on the grass up in Canada at Woodbine and by all regards ran fairly well as a two year old. He finished second to Fog of War in the Summer Stakes (G1), lost to today’s rival Henley’s Joy when finishing fourth in the Dixiana Bourbon Stakes (G3) at Keeneland and then culminated his turf career (for now it appears) with a fifth place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) at Churchill Downs last November. His connections then decided to change up surfaces and on November 24th, War of Will took on a field of $76K Maidens in an eight and a half furlong race over a sloppy Churchill Downs track and absolutely romped, winning easily by five lengths. He then proved that effort was no fluke by stalking the initial pace in the Lecomte last time out, showing great agility maneuvering through rivals early on despite a slow first quarter mile and then eventually moved up to take command of the race before the field entered the final turn. He finished the race by easily drawing away from his foes and striding down the stretch in very impressive fashion as he hit the wire four lengths clear of his nearest rival. In his two most recent efforts, he has managed to pair up 94 Bris Speed Ratings (BSRs), which rank as the second highest last out speed figure as well as the second highest speed figure for today’s distance. TimeForm US was even more generous as they awarded him a 110 speed figure which is the highest last out speed rating amongst the field by a decent margin. If War of Will can continue to improve and his career progresses, he certainly appears to be the one to beat in this field and may be a serious Kentucky Derby contender if all goes well.
War of Will’s running style is fairly versatile in that he has shown the ability to not only set the pace (at least when he was running on turf) but he is also comfortable rating and stalking from just off of the pace as well. In addition, he does possess good tactical speed which when combined with that adaptable running style should serve him well especially when breaking from so far outside. His post draw in this race is a bit of a concern as it is a moderately short run up to the first turn here at Fair Grounds. Thus it is imperative that his jockey, Tyler Gaffalione, hustle him out of the gates in order to establish position early on. However, as there are several other runners in this field that do enjoy being forwardly placed and have good early speed, Gaffalione may want to avoid having War of Will do the dirty work of setting the initial pace for the field on the front end and instead take up a stalking role, whereupon he can remain within comfortable striking distance and take over the race should the pacesetters begin to falter. Even though the distance for today’s Risen Star is slightly longer than that of the Lecomte, War of Will’s pedigree is ideal for handling distances like this and even further as it is absolutely loaded with stamina. In his most recent work over the main track at Fair Grounds, War of Will fired off an absolute scorcher as he ran four furlongs in :471 and that time was actually second fastest of 135 horses training at that distance that day. By all accounts, it would thus appear that War of Will is in fine form and ready to fire off another huge effort today. Over the past three years, Mark Casse has done very well with runners that won their last race as he has been winning at a 19% clip from 793 starts. Additionally, Gaffalione gets the call to ride today for the third time in a row and over the past 60 days, when he and Casse have teamed up, the pair has been winning at a 23% rate. All in all, War of Will looms as the one to beat in this race and if he can overcome the minor hurdle of a far outside post, then he should have no issues beating this field; however, do keep in mind that his Morning Line odds are 5/2 and will likely dip lower by post time.
(6) Hog Creek Hustle: Trainer Vickie Foley sends out this son of Overanalyze, the runner up in the Lecomte last time out, looking to try and turn the tables on War of Will. In just his second try at a two-turn route race and the first effort of his three year old campaign, Hog Creek Hustle rewarded those backers who were willing to give him a second chance routing, after his first attempt in the Iroquois Stakes (G3) last September at Churchill Downs turned out badly. Despite running quite wide throughout the latter stages of the Lecomte and on a track that was very speed friendly that day, Hog Creek Hustle did well to be able to finish second; although he was the clear runner up in that field, beaten by four lengths. For his efforts in that race, he earned a 90 BSR, while TimeForm US awarded him a 105 speed figure (which was a career best). Going forward, Hog Creek Hustle will need to improve upon those speed figures in order to be truly competitive today but of all the runners exiting the Lecomte he appears to have the most upside. Now the jury may still be out on whether or not Hog Creek Hustle is better suited to sprinting or routing (his pedigree shows virtually no stamina in it whatsoever) but since the distance for today’s Risen Star is just slightly longer than that of the Lecomte, he should have no issues handling the extra 40 yards in distance today. Additionally, his experience over the surface at Fair Grounds and the fact that veteran pilot, Florent Geroux, remains in the irons today should help his chances of being successful.
Hog Creek Hustle has displayed a closing running style throughout his career; unfortunately, he is one of a bevy of runners in this field that prefer to run either as mid-pack stalkers or close from well back. Thus in order to have any chance of hitting the board, Hog Creek Hustle will need to have some swift early fractions to run after otherwise his ability to close well late may be severely compromised as the entire field could still be fresh turning for home if the initial pace is dawdling. The initial TimeForm Pace Projector indicated a fast pace for this race; however, that projection was made prior to Kingly scratching from this field. Therefore, with the absence of a major speed presence in this race, the initial fractions might be a little more conservative resulting in a more moderate pace at the beginning of the race. Thus positioning early on will be crucial for Hog Creek Hustle and Geroux as nearly all of the runners drawn to his inside employ similar closing running styles and thus Geroux will need to ensure that his mount has a clear running lane as the field enters the final turn such that he can easily move past rivals without having to expend too much energy weaving through traffic or running very wide again. Hog Creek Hustle did earn a 103 Brisnet Late Pace figure in that Lecomte effort (a number surpassed in this field only by War of Will’s 106 and Country House’s ridiculous 123) and thus if he can close again today like he did in that performance, he will have a legitimate shot at finishing in the money. Over the past year Geroux has been riding extremely well in route races as he has been winning at a 23% rate from 315 starts. Hog Creek Hustle’s two most recent works have been solid conditioning efforts though not particularly flashy. Over the past seven editions of this race, a deep closer has only won once and thus it would potentially behoove Geroux to not drop his mount so far back after the initial break, especially if the projected fast pace does not materialize. Hog Creek Hustle may not be able to catch War of Will again today but at 8-1 on the Morning Line he certainly offers value for inclusion in all exotic wagers.
(3) Mr. Money: This son of Goldencents, trained by Bret Calhoun, was initially expected to debut in the Lecomte following a decent fourth place effort last November in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). However, he came down with an illness the morning of the race and had to be scratched and thus he will be making his three year old debut today in the Risen Star following a more than three month layoff. Mr. Money broke his maiden in his third asking when he took on a field of $56K Maidens racing eight and a half furlongs over the main track at Churchill Downs last September. In that effort, he sat just off of the pace early on, then made a three wide bid at the quarter pole before drawing away from his rivals to win by three and three quarter lengths and earned a 90 BSR for that performance. He was then ambitiously spotted in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at odds of 41.4-1 and although he never really threatened Game Winner that day, he was in contention as the field hit the quarter pole. However, he faded down the stretch in that race and ended up finishing nine and a half lengths back of the winner. Brisnet awarded him a 92 BSR for his efforts while TimeForm US bestowed upon him a 102 speed figure; yet, he will need to show significant progress and continue to improve if his connections have any aspirations of him being competitive today. Mr. Money will need to prove that his two year old campaign results were simply not a fluke and unfortunately his preparation coming into this race has been less than ideal, especially since he has yet to step foot on the main track at Fair Grounds in a race. However there are some factors working in his favor here and it begins with his running style.
Mr. Money has displayed a pace stalking running style through the first four races of his career and that could be quite beneficial to his chances of hitting the board today as over the past seven years, six of the last seven winners of the Risen Star have won either when pressing the pace or stalking from mid-pack. As his early pace figures are not nearly as quick as those of the projected pace-setters, Mr. Money will likely not become embroiled in a speed duel on the front end. Additionally, given the fact that he is surrounded by runners that would prefer to race from much further back, if Mr. Money can break well from the gates, he should be able to take up position along the rail and work out a nice stalking trip. If the projected pace scenario for this race is indeed modified from fast to moderate, that could work out quite well for Mr. Money as it appears that his running style is well suited for dealing with exactly that kind of pace. A more moderate initial pace for this race will likely hamper the chances of the multitude of closers that are in this field whilst enhancing the probability of finishing in the money for those runners that will be racing much closer to the front. Gabriel Saez has been onboard Mr. Money for each of the first four starts of his career and will be in the irons once again today. This is notable due to the fact that Saez has actually won this race once before, back in 2009 aboard Friesan Fire. Additionally over the past three years, Bret Calhoun has done fairly well not only with getting runners into the winner’s circle following layoffs of more than 90 days (18% win rate from 187 starts) but also when entering runners into graded stakes (17% win rate from 58 starts). Moreover he has done exceptionally well over the past three years with three year olds racing in dirt route races following layoffs of 61-120 days as he has won 9 of 17 starts (53% win rate) and finished in the money in 14 of those 17 starts (82% rate) all the while posting an $8.63 R.O.I. Despite the long layoff, Mr. Money has been working quite well over the main track at Fair Grounds and since the first of the year he has fired off four bullet workouts which should indicate that he is ready to go today. At 12-1 on the Morning Line there is the distinct possibility that this colt could get lost in the shuffle and he certainly should be considered for inclusion in any and all exotic wagers as he has the potential to hit the board at a big price today.
There were a number of runners in this field that were under consideration for use underneath but ultimately the (8) Owendale a son of Into Mischief trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Shaun Bridgmohan was chosen. Now it needs to be noted that there is some discrepancy amongst the major speed figure-making methods for his most recent effort. In that race, in which Owendale beat a field of $50K Optional Claimers at Fair Grounds last month going one mile and 70 yards over a good rated track, Beyer awarded him a 91 speed figure while Brisnet gave him a 96 BSR. However, TimeForm US was far less kind and only bestowed a 95 speed figure which is concerning as generally TimeForm’s speed figures are 20 points higher than Beyer speed figures. If that TimeForm US number is indeed truly accurate, then Owendale might be severely overmatched in this race and could finish up the track. Yet, if the Beyer and Brisnet numbers are to be believed, then Owendale fits into this race quite well and should be very competitive against this field even if he does not take a major step forward today. I personally am under the impression that the latter scenario is indeed the more accurate one and it is for that reason amongst several others that Owendale warrants inclusion in these selections. Although Owendale will be making a major step up in class today, he does have the most experience in the field at running two turn route races with four such efforts to his name. Additionally, since September of last year, his speed figures have been continually improving which bodes well for his chances of going forward today. While Owendale has shown a preference to be forwardly placed in a number of his most recent efforts, he is by no means a need to lead sort of runner and in fact he does possess good tactical speed such that if he can avoid engaging in a speed duel early on and instead work out a stalking trip, it is more than likely he will be in contention as the field turns for home. Both Cox and Bridgmohan have been off to excellent starts thus far at Fair Grounds and furthermore over the past 60 days when the two have paired up, Bridgmohan has won with 42% of his mounts for Cox and finished in the money 74% of the time. Additionally, over the past three years Cox has done exceptionally well with returning runners that won their last race to the winner’s circle as he has won 29% of his last 628 starts. As the 6-1 second choice on the Morning Line, it will be interesting to see at what odds Owendale is sent off at; if he remains around that initial price, then he certainly offers value in this race as he does have the potential to score a minor upset over War of Will given his running style and if not he still should be considered a major contender for hitting the board today.