Race of the Week: Louisiana Derby
Saturday March 23rd: Race 13 at Fair Grounds. The $1,000,000 Grade 2 Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby run at 1 1/8 miles on the dirt for three year olds. (Post Time: 6:13 PM EDT).
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
Selections: 6-4-8
(6) War of Will: The barn of trainer Mark Casse sends out this son of War Front looking to complete the Fair Grounds trifecta today as he has already captured both the Lecomte Stakes (G3) and the Risen Star Stakes (G2) in the past two months. If Casse and War of Will with jockey Tyler Gaffalione aboard were to win the Louisiana Derby today, not only would that give Casse his first ever Louisiana Derby title but War of Will would also join the likes of Friesan Fire (2009) and International Star (2015) as the only horses to win all three major Kentucky Derby prep races down at Fair Grounds since 2000. History is on War of Will’s side as seven of the past ten winners of the Louisiana Derby exited the Risen Star and moreover three of the last four winners of this race won the Risen Star in their prior start. Additionally, as War of Will is the Morning Line favorite at odds of 6/5 it should be noted that five of the last ten Louisiana Derby winners were sent off as the betting favorite and furthermore, seven of the last ten winners went off at odds of less than 4-1. Finally, although a closer has won this race in recent memory (International Star did so back in 2015), the majority of the recent winners were horses that possessed either pace-pressing or pace-stalking abilities which bodes well for War of Will given the fact that he has shown a hybrid version of the two running styles since transitioning to the dirt last year. Thus far in his two stakes attempts, War of Will has been awarded back to back 110 TimeForm speed ratings, which although they are bit slow compared to the speed figures being put forth by some of the other major Kentucky Derby contenders, they are still the fastest last out speed figures amongst the entire field. Finally, for those individuals who endorse Kerry Thomas’ herd dynamics theory for thoroughbreds, War of Will is said to possess excellent herd dynamics and considering that this will be the toughest field he has faced thus far in his career, his maturity, poise, presence, and ability to adapt and withstand multiple stresses should serve him well today.
When looking at the potential initial pace for this race, the TimeForm Pace Projector has indicated that the early pace could be quite fast while OptixPlot disagrees and suggests that although the pace could be quite contentious early on, it may not be all that fast. This disagreement is due to the fact that although there are several horses entered into this field with good early speed, there is only one true pace-setter in this field (Lemniscate) while the other runners have generally shown themselves to be more content to rate just off of the leaders and press the pace or even sit a bit further back and stalk from there; as a result it is a bit unclear as to which of these runners will be keen to duel with Lemniscate on the early lead. War of Will has not really shown a preference for either running style but given the fact that he has horses drawn on either side of him that will likely desire to be forwardly placed, Gaffalione is going to have to hustle him out of the gates in order to secure an ideal position from which he can sit back and press or stalk before seizing command of the race at the opportune moment. In past efforts, War of Will has shown a tendency to like to track the initial leader from the outside so he has a clear running lane when he makes his bid to vie for the lead; however, there is a good chance that he could have several other runners drawn to his outside as well, tracking him, such that his every move will be shadowed. If War of Will can withstand the pace pressure he will likely encounter from his rivals once he seizes command of the race and can endure repeated challenges from the stalkers and closers as he moves down the stretch, he should be able to win this race. Over the past three years, Casse has won with 19% of his 811 runners that won their last race and he has finished in the money in 46% of those starts. Additionally, over the past two years, when starting three year olds on the dirt following a win in their prior start, and when making their third start following a layoff, Casse has won with three of his last seven trainees (43% win rate) and finished in the money with five of those seven starters, all the while compiling a $6.88 R.O.I. Although Gaffalione has not ridden much thus far at Fair Grounds, in his ten starts there he has won four times and finished in the money with eight of his mounts. Finally, War of Will’s most recent breezing work over four furlongs over the Fair Grounds surface was quite sharp and thus it would appear that this colt is in excellent form heading into this race. Obviously at 6/5 on the Morning Line War of Will does not offer much value at all in this race but as he is the one to beat in this field, he must be used defensively in any and all wagers.
(4) Sueno: Trainer Keith Desormeaux ships in this son of Atreides looking to continue his trend of finishing in the money in all five of his prior efforts. In his most recent race, the Southwest Stakes (G3) run over eight and a half furlongs at Oaklawn Park last month, Sueno did quite well to finish second to massive longshot Super Steed by three quarters of a length after making a late bid down the stretch and just missing out at the wire. The 108 TimeForm speed rating that he earned for that effort was a career best and in fact ranks as the second fastest last out speed figure amongst the entire field. In that Southwest Stakes performance, Sueno beat Long Range Toddy by one and a quarter lengths and since then Long Range Toddy has come back to flatter Sueno as he took the first division of last Saturday’s Rebel Stakes (G2) whilst earning a 117 speed rating. Today will be Sueno’s first time competing over the surface at Fair Grounds and it has been suggested that he has been dealing with a quarter crack in one of his hooves recently (possibly the reason why he did not return to race in the Rebel last weekend), so close attention needs to be paid towards how Sueno looks both in the paddock and when warming up on the track. Additionally, it will be interesting to see how Sueno handles the stretchout to nine furlongs as his sire, Atreides, was a sprinter that never won beyond eight furlongs; yet, his pedigree underneath does provide some confidence that Sueno can be successful stretching out. Although Sueno has two major factors that could work in his benefit today: first and foremost is his running style and second is his jockey.
Thus far in his career, Sueno has primarily displayed the running style of a pace stalker and if the initial pace of the race does indeed turn out to be fairly fast, then the race could set up quite well for him. The Pace Projector has indicated that it is likely he will be amongst the first flight of runners stalking the initial leaders but in the case of Sueno, he will be doing it from along the rail. This is crucial considering the jockey that is aboard today: Corey Lanerie. So far in his career, Lanerie has proven himself to be a master of being able to maximize a rail trip to his utmost advantage. As only early speed and deep closers are drawn to Sueno’s inside, look for Lanerie to tuck his mount in along the rail and track the likes of Lemniscate and War of Will. If Lanerie can avoid then getting boxed in as the field turns for home and is able to either shoot up along the rail or tip out Sueno, he might be able to get the first jump on the remaining leaders before the closers start rolling. If Lanerie can pull off such a trip, then Sueno stands a decent chance of being able to spring the upset on War of Will. Over the past year, Lanerie has been winning at an 18% when racing at route distances (400 starts). Given the solid recent six furlong work Sueno had over the training track at San Luis Rey, it appears this colt should be coming into this race ready to fire. At 8-1 on the Morning Line, Sueno certainly offers value in this race if he remains near those odds by post time and given his ability and running style, he needs to be respected in this field, should be played in all legs of exotic wagers and merits inclusion in multi-race wagers as well.
(8) Country House: If there is one word that can be used to describe the Bill Mott trainee’s most recent effort in the Risen Star it would have to be green. The son of Lookin at Lucky encountered a favorable fast pace scenario early on, was one of the primary beneficiaries of a major pace collapse as the field turned for home and had War of Will dead in his sights as he rocketed down the stretch. Then Country House’s immaturity got the best of him and he began to lug in badly and was forced to settle for second. The 104 TimeForm speed rating that he earned for that performance is a solid figure but Country House will definitely need to continue to improve and most certainly needs to mature in order to have any chance in this race. In his past two efforts, he has been slow breaking from the gates and while it would have been encouraging to have Mott fit in a gate work in between races, such an effort never materialized. Although Country House’s experience over the track will be to his benefit today and he is impeccably bred to handle the stretchout to nine furlongs, there are a number of concerns that need to be alleviated in order to endorse his chances in this race. Country House must demonstrate not only that he has physically and mentally matured from that last start but he also must prove that he can still close well even without a complete pace collapse in front of him. If he can accomplish both of these tasks today, then he should have an excellent opportunity of possibly upsetting War of Will and if not at the very least should hit the board once again.
In his two starts this year Country House has displayed the running style of a deep closer with an excellent late kick; however, this running style may be a by-product of his inability to get out of the gates cleanly. While the Pace Projector has indicated a likely fast initial pace for this race which could set up quite well for Country House’s recent running style, if Luis Saez is unable to hustle his charge out of the gates, then the race could be over from the get go for this colt. Additionally, it will be crucial that Saez try and provide the cleanest trip possible for Country House as there is a chance that if he still is a bit immature, he might begin to lug in again down the stretch and could risk disqualification if he were to come into contact with any of the other runners. If Country House can display that blazing Brisnet Late Pace figure of a 123 that he put forth in his $50K Maiden effort, two starts back, then this colt should be flying down the track late and might be able to defeat War of Will no matter how talented that rival might be. Mott has had Country House put together several solid works over the surface at the Payson Park training center so this colt’s fitness coming into this race should be of no issue. Additionally, over the past 60 days, Saez has won with four of his last ten mounts for Mott and finished in the money with another two runners. The Morning Line odds of 9/2 on Country House are a bit short but provided this colt doesn’t decide to be his own worst enemy again, his chances in this race must be respected and as he could very well win, Country House must be played accordingly.
If there is one runner in this field to be considered a bit of a live longshot, it is the enigma that is the Todd Pletcher trainee (10) Spinoff. This son of Hard Spun will be making a major step up in class today as he exits a $75K Optional Claiming field that he dusted by 11 lengths last month at Tampa Bay Downs. While the 106 TimeForm speed rating that he earned for that effort was quite good it was likely influenced by the slight speed bias the track had that day and it may have been even faster had the field not crawled home in the final half mile. Spinoff’s running style thus far through three career starts has been that of a pace-presser and while the outside post position does not do him any favors, his jockey John Velazquez will likely tuck in to avoid going wide in the first turn and sit a stalking trip behind the likes of War of Will. Moreover, Spinoff’s pedigree suggests that the stretchout to nine furlongs today should be right within this colt’s wheelhouse. Additionally it certainly helps that Pletcher has won this race a record four times, most recently with Noble Indy last year. Furthermore, over the course of the past three years, Pletcher has done quite well with runners making their second start following a layoff as he has won 23% of his past 417 starts and finished in the money with 56% of those runners. Also, Velazquez has been riding extremely well for Pletcher over the past 60 days as he has won with 36% of his last 33 mounts for the trainer and finished in the money with 67% of those runners. If Spinoff can remain at or near his Morning Line odds of 8-1, then he will offer excellent value to any and all backers who support his chances in this race as he appears to quite possibly be the one runner that is the most capable of defeating War of Will, provided he can prove that he belongs in this race.