Race of the Week: Rebel
Saturday March 16th: Race 10 at Oaklawn Park. The $750,000 Grade 2 Rebel Stakes run at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt for three year olds. (Post Time: 7:06 PM EDT).
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
Selections: 2-5-7
(2) Laughing Fox: One of four colts entered into this field from the barn of trainer Steve Asmussen, this is one runner that arguably stands the best chance of making significant noise in this race. Although, Laughing Fox will certainly be making a major step up in class today following a victory last month in a $75K Optional Claiming race, he appears to have the talent and ability to do so. In that most recent effort, run over eight and a half furlongs here at Oaklawn Park, Laughing Fox encountered a wickedly fast initial pace and as a result was well behind the field early on. However, as the pace began to moderate and the runners on the front end began to tire and drop back, that’s when Laughing Fox made his move and rapidly drew into contention as the field entered the stretch. He eventually drew level with rival Sleepy Eyes Todd, gave a game account of himself battling on the lead and finally put away that rival to win by one and a quarter lengths. For his performance in that race he earned a 115 TimeForm speed rating which was a massive improvement over the 83 speed rating he had received prior to that when breaking his maiden. Normally, such a huge increase in speed figures opens up discussion of whether or not a runner will bounce in their next effort; however, the 83 speed rating was earned in a brutally slow eight and a half furlong maiden race whilst the 115 was earned in a race where the initial fractions were :22.69 and :23.60 (a far cry from the :24.03 and :24.65 set forth in that maiden effort). Thus it would appear that Laughing Fox’s speed figures were just simply the result of two radically differently run races and the progression from the 83 to the 115 is more likely than not a sign that this colt happens to be maturing at the right time. If Laughing Fox can move forward from that effort and continue to improve then he has a massive chance of scoring an upset in this race. Additionally, there are two major factors working in his favor today. First and foremost, Laughing Fox not only has two wins over today’s eight and a half furlong distance, but they also came over the surface at Oaklawn so that familiarity with the track will be a major asset today. Second, Laughing Fox’s running style fits well into the projected pace scenario for this race.
Over the course of his career, Laughing Fox has displayed primarily a pace-stalking running style, but as his most recent effort evidenced, he can adapt that running style to suit the initial pace of the race. If the early pace is swift, he might drop back and be content to rally and close late, whilst if the pace is a bit more pedestrian, Laughing Fox can be more forwardly positioned and challenge for the lead from there. This adaptability should serve him well as the TimeForm Pace Projector has indicated a likely fast initial pace for this race given the multitude of runners entered into the field that possess good early speed and will likely desire to be forwardly placed. Thus one should expect Laughing Fox to sit well back early on in this race, whilst saving ground along the rail, before launching a rally to move up into contention as the field turns for home. This will be the fourth straight race in which Ricardo Santana Jr has ridden Laughing Fox and in order to ensure that his charge has the best possible chance of hitting the board today, he must keep this colt out of trouble throughout the race and provide him a clear running lane from whence he can commence his rally. Over the past 60 days, Santana has ridden quite well for Asmussen as he has won with 42% of his 97 mounts for the trainer. Moreover, he has been riding quite well thus far at Oaklawn as he has won 22% of his last 153 starts. Additionally, over the past three years, Asmussen has done incredibly well with runners making their third start following a layoff (20% win rate from 474 starts) and with runner that won their last start (20% win rate from 1307 starts). Laughing Fox’s five furlong work back on March 2nd was solid and suggests he should be ready to fire coming into this race. If this young colt can handle the huge step up in class today, at 10-1 on the Morning Line, Laughing Fox appears to be a live longshot in this race and will certainly reward bettors who endorse his chances of scoring an impressive upset over the likes of Game Winner and Omaha Beach.
(5) Game Winner: This son of Candy Ride makes his 2019 debut today for trainer Bob Baffert and looks to build upon an impressive two year old campaign which saw him remain undefeated through four races and capture the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) in impressive fashion last November at Churchill Downs. In that effort, despite having been bumped at the start which forced him to race from mid-pack and go wide through both turns, he eventually caught up to the leader in the stretch, rallied past rival Knicks Go after having been bumped quite hard and then surged on to win by two and a quarter lengths at the wire. The 114 TimeForm speed rating he earned for that effort is a bit mediocre considering that in his prior effort in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita he had posted a 118 speed rating for a race run over the same eight and a half furlongs as the BC Juvenile. Now if Game Winner can improve upon those speed figures going forward, he will be a force to be reckoned with in this race. However, there are a few concerns surrounding his chances in this division of the Rebel. First, the BC Juvenile has come back incredibly weak as the second and third place runners (Knicks Go and Signalman) have absolutely flopped in all the races they’ve run in 2019. Second, Game Winner has not run in 134 days and as he is not the most enthusiastic horse in his morning training and lacks the number of flashy works that stablemate Improbable has put forth, his fitness level coming into this race is in question. As Game Winner already has 30 points towards the Kentucky Derby, realistically all he needs is a third place finish or better to make it into the starting gates on May 4th. Thus Baffert may be content to allow Game Winner to gradually build up his fitness and will be simply using this race as a stepping stone for launching his 2019 campaign.
As mentioned previously there is an abundance of early speed drawn into this field as a number of runners have shown a propensity to be on or near the early lead in several of their past efforts. This plethora of speed has led the TimeForm Pace Projector to suggest that the initial pace for this race will be quite fast; however, given Game Winner’s versatile running style that should not be a major issue for him. Over his past four efforts, Game Winner has displayed both pace-pressing and pace-stalking running styles and it is this adaptability that should allow him to fit quite well into the overall scope of this race. Joel Rosario will be riding once again (he has ridden Game Winner in each of his four prior efforts) and it would be no surprise to see him take back this colt early on and allow him to stalk initial leaders before moving up into contention as the field enters the final turn. Since moving his tack to the West Coast, Rosario has excelled when racing at Santa Anita and Del Mar but in his few trips back East this year, things have not gone quite as well. So although the familiarity between rider and horse is there, it would be wise to be a bit leery and watch how he is riding earlier in the card to get a clear indication as to how he is adapting to the surface at Oaklawn. However, over the past year Rosario has been riding well in route races as he has won 21% of his past 197 starts. Moreover, throughout the last three years, Baffert has been winning at a 25% rate with runners returning from layoffs of more than 90 days and at a 28% rate when contesting graded stakes races. Game Winner has posted some solid works leading up to today’s effort, but as mentioned previously, they are not nearly as brilliant as those of stablemate Improbable. If Game Winner returns to his 2018 form and enters this race fresh and ready to fire, then there is no reason to doubt his ability to easily win this race; however, if he does indeed need a race to get into form for his 2019 campaign, his 4/5 Morning Line odds (which are likely to dip even lower by post time) suggest that he should be used for defensive purposes only in this race and in all multi-race wagers.
(7) Our Braintrust: The barn of trainer Mark Casse sends out this son of Freud looking to avenge an incredibly narrow last out defeat in the Withers Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct. In that effort, this colt tried nine furlongs for the first time and while he didn’t win, he came up only a neck short behind the eventual winner Tax and long-time pacesetter Not That Brady. The track at Aqueduct had begun to favor runners racing along the rail and thus as Our Braintrust chased the leaders two to three wide throughout, he could be argued that he ran the best race out of the entire field. The massive 121 TimeForm speed rating he earned for his performance in that effort is quite impressive as it is one of the highest speed figures a three year old has put forth this year. While there are some concerns about how strong the Withers has come back as a whole, it should be noted that the second place finisher, Not That Brady, certainly had a number of excuses for his last place finish in the Gotham (G3) earlier this month. Not That Brady had been dealing with a quarter crack in one of his hooves which disrupted his training schedule and then suffered a meltdown when warming up on the track prior to the race. Meanwhile the fourth place finisher from the Withers still managed to match his speed figure from that race in the bizarrely run Tampa Bay Derby (G2) despite finishing fifth. On another note, Our Braintrust is the only horse in this entire field that is cutting back in distance today and as his pedigree doesn’t exactly suggest he’ll enjoy going longer, the cutback to eight and a half furlongs should suit him quite well.
Over the course of his career, Our Braintrust has primarily displayed a pace-stalking running style which should fit well into the overall pace scenario of this race given the projected fast initial pace. Now Casse adds blinkers for the first time today which suggests that he wants to sharpen this colt’s focus and have him a bit more forwardly placed in this race which is fine so long as Our Braintrust doesn’t get keen on having the lead for himself which could lead to him engaging in an unnecessary speed duel on the front end with some of his faster rivals. If Our Braintrust’s new jockey, David Cohen, can instead work out a nice trip rating or stalking just behind the early leaders, he should have this colt in an ideal position to get first jump on the pacesetters before some of the deeper stalkers begin their runs to get into contention. Mark Casse appears to have made a brilliant move in signing on Cohen to ride today as Cohen has been one of the top riders thus far at Oaklawn (23% win rate from 141 starts) and has won with 29% of his mounts for Casse over the past 60 days. Over the past three years, Casse has done remarkably well when adding blinkers to his runners for the first time as he has been winning at a 20% rate from 183 starts. Additionally, he has sent a few runners down to Hot Springs already this year and thus far three of his first ten charges have won (30% win rate). Our Braintrust has had some solid works leading up to today and if he can continue to mature and improve (his speed figures have increased in every one of his prior starts) then he certainly stands a chance of finding success in this race and could possibly even score an upset today. At 6-1 on the Morning Line, there is the potential that this colt could be a bit overlooked in this division of the Rebel and if he stays around those odds by post time he will certainly offer value to those who consider using him in any and all spots for wagers on this race.