Saturday December 28th: Race 9 at Fair Grounds Race Course. The $75,000 Woodchopper Stakes (Listed) run at one mile on the turf for three year olds. (Post Time: 5:22 PM EST).
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
SELECTIONS: #4 Marquee Prince; #13 Tracksmith; #7 The Last Zip; #10 Spectacular Gem
Live Longshot: #3 Forty Under
This Saturday is the 35th Running of the Woodchopper Stakes down at Fair Grounds in New Orleans. Although this race bears Listed Stakes status and carries with it just a $75,000 purse, the assembled field is more akin to that found in a Grade 3 or even Grade 2 affair. Initially this race consisted of 13 colts, geldings and ridglings with three more entrants listed on the also eligible list. However, as noted by the DRF’s Marcus Hersh earlier this week, the Vickie Foley trainee Hog Creek Hustle (winner of the Grade 1 Woody Stephens earlier this year) is being scratched out this race and instead will be pointed towards the six furlong Duncan Kenner Stakes to be run on the dirt at Fair Grounds on January 18th. The Woodchopper would have been Hog Creek Hustle’s first attempt on the grass and given the competition he was likely to have faced in this race, it’s no surprise to see him defect and point towards a race that better suits his abilities. With regards to the remaining assembled field of three year olds, amongst them is another Grade 1 winner in Sir Winston (the 2019 Belmont Stakes champion), two Grade 3 winners in Flying Scotsman (2018 Cecille B DeMille Stakes) and Forty Under (2018 Pilgrim Stakes), a Grade 1 and Grade 3 placed colt in The Last Zip (2019 G1 Secretariat Stakes and 2019 G3 American Derby) and multiple Grade 3 placed horses in addition to multiple listed stakes winners. All in all, this is one incredibly impressive bunch of three years that will be contesting this year’s edition of the Woodchopper Stakes.
Furthermore, amongst the assembled field there is a great deal of early speed present such that the TimeForm Pace Projector has designated a fast initial pace for this race which theoretically should aid those runners that are typically positioned off of the pace early on. Of those horses that have a tendency to show early speed, two of them stand out in this field as not only are they the projected pacesetters but also they have the two fastest TimeForm Early Pace ratings in the field and have demonstrated an ability to take fields in gate to wire fashion on several occasions. They are the Mike Stidham trainee, The Last Zip, and the James Baker colt, Spectacular Gem. However, there is a whole host of other runners that project to rate just behind those two and will likely be applying pressure to the leaders throughout the initial stages of this two turn affair. These runners include: Flying Scotsman, Forty Under, Marquee Prince, Empire of War, Louder Than Bombs, and Clint Maroon. With all of this speed present, it could make for a rather contentious affair on the front end and those two aforementioned projected pace-setters might be hard pressed to hang on to their leads throughout the entirety of the race. Yet, there is the possibility (albeit a slight one) that even with fast initial fractions being set down, a horse like Spectacular Gem could take this field in gate to wire fashion as he did two starts back in the $125K Jefferson Cup at Churchill Downs going nine furlongs in a swift time of 1:48.00. All this being said, I am of the opinion that this race is going to set up best for those runners that can avoid engaging in setting the pace and instead take up a tactical position sitting a few lengths off of the leaders before making a bid to move into contention turning for home; it is quite likely though that given the talent level of those horses mentioned as either being the potential pacesetters or pace pressers, some of them will remain in contention throughout and could still wind up securing a minor award at the end of it all.
Before discussing my selections for this race, I need to address the elephant in the field, or rather the lone Grade 1 final leg of the Triple Crown winner Sir Winston. This son of Awesome Again is making his return to the race track for trainer Mark Casse following a 203 day layoff as he has not raced since his Belmont Stakes victory back on June 8th. This is an incredibly long layoff for a colt to come back from and try and be at least somewhat competitive in his first start against other horses. Yes, he has been putting together some rather solid works over the past month and a half including a bullet four furlong work on December 8th at Fair Grounds and yes, Casse has done fairly over the past three years with runners returning to racing following layoffs of 90 days or more (17% win rate from 610 starts), but I still have my doubts. First and foremost, this will be Sir Winston’s second ever try on the grass (his first came as a two year old at Saratoga last July and was abysmal). He was then campaigned by Casse over the Tapeta at Woodbine to close out his two year old season but an affinity for a synthetic track does not always translate into being able to handle racing on the grass. His turf pedigree leaves much to be desired as both his sire Awesome Again and damsire Afleet Alex never stepped foot on the lawn while his dam La Gran Bailadora was at her best racing over the Polytrack at Arlington Park and over the all weather track at Keeneland (before they switched it over to dirt). Additionally, given Sir Winston’s primary running style (that of a closer), this cutback to a mile distance is likely going to be too short and even though the potential pace scenario may set up well for him, he is likely going to run out of real estate before he can truly get into contention down the stretch. Finally, it is a bit surprising that Casse could not convince either Joel Rosario (who will be riding at Santa Anita instead) or Julien Leparoux (who is likely riding at Gulfstream Park) to come and ride Sir Winston; instead he had to settle for Miguel Mena who has struggled riding in turf races this year (6% win rate from 309 starts). Thus even though Sir Winston is the 7/2 Morning Line favorite, I want no part of this colt in this race and am going to be tossing him here as he is a very beatable favorite on Saturday.
Instead, I’m looking to try and get a little value out of this race although the defection of Hog Creek Hustle from this field might expose a couple of my selections a bit and cause their odds to potentially be halved by post time. There are two colts in this field that I am particularly interested in and I’ve had a rather difficult time separating them as they’ve both put together some solid efforts leading up to this race. Ultimately though I elected to side with a son of Cairo Prince that is going out for some lightning hot connections in trainer Brad Cox and jockey Florent Geroux. Marquee Prince was last seen finishing third in the Grade 3 Commonwealth Turf at Churchill Downs on November 9th over a “good” rated eight and a half furlongs. His jockey that day, Tyler Gaffalione, did not give him the best of trips as although he had secured position along the rail early on, Gaffalione elected to tip Marquee Prince out into the five path turning for home to make at run at the leaders and it is likely that this ground loss cost him in the race. Furthermore, when rival Tracksmith made his move to get into contention it appeared that he caught Gaffalione by surprise as the jockey was slow to respond, otherwise he might have been able to get into contention sooner. Regardless of the issues that plagued Marquee Prince turning for home, he still was able to finish quite well and earned a career best 115 TimeForm speed rating for that effort. Marquee Prince’s speed figures have improved in each of his last three starts dating back to May, he drops in class today and his hybrid pace-pressing/stalking running style should have him ideally positioned early on to be within contact of the initial leaders and thus allow him to be able to vie for the front when the opportunity presents itself before the deeper stalkers and closers start winding up. Furthermore, Marquee Prince has put forth a series of solid (but not particularly flashy works) leading up to Saturday and over the past three years, Cox has done remarkably well with runners returning from 46-90 day layoffs (26% win rate from 534 starts). Additionally, when Florent Geroux gets in the irons for Cox, good things usually happen as over the past 60 days Geroux has won with 26% of his 39 mounts for Cox and hit the board 59% of the time. At 8-1 on the Morning Line (though I am doubtful he goes off that high) and given his prior experience racing at Fair Grounds, Marquee Prince is my top selection in this incredibly competitive edition of the Woodchopper Stakes.
Coming in right behind Marquee Prince is my second choice, the horse that actually finished in front of him in the Commonwealth Turf, Tracksmith. Trained by Joe Sharp and ridden once again by Adam Beschizza this son of Street Sense is a gritty contender. In five starts this year, he’s only finished out of the exacta once and that came in the nine furlong Grade 3 Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs at the end of August. This colt has proven himself at distances ranging from five and a half furlongs all the way out to nine furlongs and given his off the pace mid-pack stalking to closing running style, he should be well suited for having a chance at hitting the board or winning on Saturday especially if the pace in front of him is moderate to fast. Tracksmith’s last two efforts in both the Jefferson Cup and the Commonwealth Turf were admirable performances and although he finished second in each contest, those races suggested that he is maturing at the right time and a slight step forward could put him into the winner’s circle on Saturday. His TimeForm speed ratings have progressed in each of his last three efforts and another increase should be expected in this race. It’s very encouraging to see Beschizza take the mount on Saturday as he has been aboard Tracksmith for seven of his nine lifetime starts and thus that familiarity could work to the connection’s advantage. Over the past three years, Joe Sharp has been firing at a 28% rate with runners that were the beaten favorite in their last effort. Additionally, although Sharp’s strike rate for returning runners from 46-90 day layoffs is just 14% over the past three years, Tracksmith has put together a series of extremely sharp works leading up to this race including a bullet four furlong work run in :473 on December 15th. The drop in class should certainly work to his benefit and though the cutback in distance is not ideal given his running style, Tracksmith has hit the board in both of his two prior attempts at a mile. At 6-1 on the Morning Line, Tracksmith should offer some value to his backers and I firmly believe that this colt will be charging hard down the lane late and should be able to at the very least hit the board on Saturday.
Now I briefly discussed the two potential pacesetters for this race in The Last Zip and Spectacular Gem earlier in this piece but let’s take a closer look at each of them. Mike Stidham’s The Last Zip, a gelded son of City Zip, was last seen going gate to wire in an eight and a half furlong $42K Allowance effort at Fair Grounds at the end of November. Although he did not beat much in that race, he did earn a career best 114 TimeForm speed rating for that performance and it marked another solid effort in an otherwise stellar three year old campaign. Earlier this summer this gelding was involved in one of the most thrilling editions of the Grade 3 American Derby that literally went down to the wire and saw him lose by just a neck and dead heat with another rival. After that, he put forth a valiant effort in the Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes only to be run down late by Chad Brown’s Valid Point and Aidan O’Brien’s Van Beethoven. Although some of The Last Zip’s best efforts have come when he has been on the lead and attempted to take fields in gate to wire fashion, he possesses enough tactical ability that he can still contend even when rating or stalking just off of the pace. Now The Last Zip is not nearly as fast as Spectacular Gem and thus it would greatly behoove his new rider, Mitchell Murrill, to pay heed to this and not try and engage in a speed duel with that rival on the front end. Rather, the best chance for The Last Zip to be able to hit the board or even win on Saturday is to return to his pace-pressing/stalking running style and have Murrill put him in the best position to make a bid for the front when that opportunity presents itself. While there are other horses in this field whose connections are likely going to have similar plans for how to attack this race, The Last Zip is faster than them and is one of the more proven commodities in this race not only in terms of class but also in terms of the eight furlongs (a distance at which he has hit the board in all four starts). The Last Zip’s prior experience over the lawn at Fair Grounds could play a major role on Saturday as he is the only runner in the field with more than 2 starts over the surface. Moreover, Stidham has done quite well over the past three years with runners that won their last start (19% win rate from 382 starts) so that bodes well for The Last Zip’s chances. Finally, although Murrill has been struggling recently at Fair Grounds and when riding for Stidham, he is still a solid jockey when riding on turf (15% win rate from 340 starts this year) and thus will hopefully be able to give this gelding a solid ride. 6-1 on the Morning Line is a bit short for The Last Zip, so I’m hoping that his odds drift up a bit by post time as he is a very game contender in this field and will likely be in the thick of it all the way to the wire and thus he will be my third selection for this race.
As for Spectacular Gem, well there’s no other way to put it than he’s fast and not afraid to try and wear his rivals down into submission as evidenced by the fact that in four of his past five efforts, he’s tried to take the field in gate to wire fashion and succeeded twice* (at a mile and a nine furlongs), though he was disqualified for coming out late in the stretch and bumping foes during his effort in the $200K Caesars Stakes at Indiana Grand. As mentioned before, the TimeForm Pace Projector suggests that this son of Can the Man will be the early pacesetter (by virtue of his field leading 115 TimeForm Early Pace rating). Spectacular Gem has prior experience both at Fair Grounds and at the mile distance, so both of those factors could work to his advantage. Moreover, this colt has demonstrated two starts back in the $125K nine furlong Jefferson Cup that he can survive on the front end of a race, whilst setting fast initial fractions and sustaining some pace pressure; however, it will be interesting to see if he can hack it on Saturday if he is forced to contend with multiple rivals breathing down his neck throughout the early stages of the race. Now Spectacular Gem is dropping in class on Saturday, cutting back in distance and will have a relatively hot jockey in Jimmy Graham aboard (21% win rate thus far during the current Fair Grounds meet), but the other concern for him is the seven week layoff. Over the past three years, James Baker has had 32 starters race following layoffs of 46-90 days and just 6% of them have won and only 25% of them have hit the board. Therefore, although there is the possibility that Spectacular Gem could take this field in gate to wire fashion, it is far more likely that he’ll eventually have to succumb to the intense pace pressure he’s likely to face in this race and instead have to settle for a minor award at best.
Finally, in terms of finding a live longshot that would certainly spice things up if he hits the board or really crash the party if he wins (given his 20-1 Morning Line odds), I would suggest one look no further than the son of Uncle Mo trained by Jeremiah Englehart, Forty Under. Yes, it has been a while since Forty Under won a race (he hasn’t won since last September’s Grade 3 Pilgrim Stakes at Belmont Park as a two year old), his three efforts this year have just been alright and he has failed to hit the board in two tries at a mile. However, perhaps a change in scenery, a jockey switch and a return to firm going might be just the remedy that Forty Under needs to get back to making an appearance in the winner’s circle. This colt does have some ability as evidenced by his efforts in the $100K Woodhaven Stakes and $150K Gio Ponti Stakes at Aqueduct this year but unfortunately both those efforts came over ground with some give to it and it appears that he’d be more appreciative of a firmer turf course. His running style is that of a pace-stalker and while he’s not blazingly fast, the Pace Projector suggests he might be slotted within the first flight of runners stalking the early leaders, a position that should suit him just fine. This colt is going to need to improve in the speed figure department in order to be able to really contend on Saturday but it certainly does help that Englehart has entrusted him into the more than capable hands of Shaun Bridgmohan (19% win rate at Fair Grounds this meet and 19% win rate in turf races this year). Furthermore, Forty Under is the lone runner that Englehart is bringing down to Fair Grounds for Saturday with a 26% strike rate as a shipper (481 starts) and a 24% win rate for runners making their second start following a layoff (304 starts), it’s very hard to look past this colt. I’m not entirely sure that Forty Under will be able to win on Saturday and best some of his more talented rivals in this field but I do believe that he should be able to give a good account of himself and could possibly hit the board at a very nice price.