There are two big stakes on the Saturday card, featuring a big name and heavy favorite in each. The races aren’t great betting races individually. The biggest question from a wagering standpoint to me will be; do you consider Sistercharlie and Volatile free spaces in the horizontal wagers or is it worth adding a horse or two to your Pick 4/5/6 tickets?
Saratoga 7/25/2020 – Race 3- The Grade 2 Ballston Spa, F/M, 1 Mile 1/16 Turf
1: Call Me Love: After rewatching her last two races, I am wondering if her Beaugay performance two starts ago looks better on paper than it does on the screen. She got identical, covered up, inside trips in small fields, where she faced two better horses (Rushing Fall and Mean Mary). Her prior races in Italy suggested 10 Furlongs would be an ideal trip for her, but she wilted pretty badly last time out. She may appreciate the cut back in distance and Clement’s horses are firing on all cylinders right now, but from what I’m seeing, she doesn’t strike me as good enough to defeat either Sistercharlie or Starship Jubilee.
2. Bramble Queen: She has won two straight races in optional claiming/allowance company. While she has been offered for a tag before, I get the feeling her connections aren’t interested in having her run for a tag right now. Looking at the condition books in the mid-Atlantic region, there aren’t a ton of races where she could go, so I think her connections decided to roll the dice here against a small field and hope to get third in a graded stakes to perhaps increase her value as a broodmare. She is definitely a cut below the top two and would be a major surprise if she was anywhere better than third place.
3. North Broadway: I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a horse that was purchased for $750,000 be used as a rabbit in only their fourth career start, but that appears to be the case today. She is owned by Peter Brandt and trained by Chad Brown, which happens to be the same connections as Sistercharlie. They have employed a rabbit in the past (Thais) to ensure Sistercharlie has an honest pace to close into. She showed in her first two starts that she could be a nice horse, just probably not what you would expect from a horse that cost three quarters of a million dollars. Her last try in allowance company at Monmouth was disappointing, but she showed enough early zip to try her in this new role. I can’t recommend using her.
4. Another Broad: She is a MTO that will likely need to wait for another day. If this race comes off the turf, I don’t see anyone beating her.
5. Sistercharlie: Her six race grade 1 win streak was snapped in the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf at Santa Anita last time out. She was wide on the final turn in that race, and perhaps didn’t care for the course in California. However, that race set up perfectly for her, and she could only muster up third. She was all out to beat Mrs. Sippy in the Flower Bowl two back, who is a nice horse, but not a great horse. It’s fair to at least wonder if she has lost a step. She has fired fresh off the bench before and is undefeated here. She is without a doubt the most likely winner, but she is vulnerable enough to take a small chance against here.
6. Starship Jubliee: In 2017, she was claimed for $16,000 at Gulfstream, since then, she has won 14 times, winning multiple graded stakes races, most notably, the EP Taylor at Woodbine. She has won three straight races and five of her last six. She can go to the front or rate off the pace if North Broadway is sent hard for the front. She’s likely to get first run on Sistercharlie, and the question is if she’s good enough to hold off Sistercharlie’s late burst. She is clearly the most likely horse to challenge the big favorite and I think she’s worth using in the Pick 4/5 ticket, especially if you have a strong opinion in one or two of the other races.
My Picks: 6-5-1
Saratoga 7/25/2020 – Race 10- The Grade A.G. Vanderbilt, 6 Furlongs
1. Lexitonian: He almost pulled off a shocker in the Phoenix at Keeneland last October, just getting passed late by Engage and Whitmore. He was dull in his seasonal debut at Oaklawn in the Count Fleet when he broke a bit slow and never seemed engaged. He rebounded by beating a full field of decent allowance horses, including Hog Creek Hustle and next out winner Absolutely Aidan at Churchill. He has progressed nicely running in a variety of races. I don’t think he can beat the favorite, but I think he’s an interesting player in the bottom of the exotics here.
2. Whitmore: He’s one of the coolest horses in training, winning 14 of 34 career starts, 12 of those wins coming at today’s 6 Furlong distance. In 21 tries, he has only been off the board once at 6 Furlongs, that being in the Breeders Cup Sprint at Del Mar in 2017. He has struggled a bit at times when he’s taken his show on the road away from Oaklawn. It’s worth noting that he did win the G1 Forego here two years ago, beating future Breeders Cup Dirt Mile and Pegasus World Cup winner, City of Light. My main concern is that the way the track has been playing over the past week doesn’t fit his style. He’s as game as they come, but I think he’s up against a tough foe here.
3. Firenze Fire: He benefitted from some big scratches when he won the True North last out. His best races have been downstate at Belmont, which is where he earned his Grade 1 win along with the majority of his triple digit Beyers. His only win here came against a lackluster field in the Sanford here when he was two. I don’t trust him at this level of competition.
4. Volatile: He is coming off a monster effort at Churchill in the Aristides, earning a monstrous 112 Beyer figure. His two efforts as a four year old are very sharp. Asmussen was able to campaign Mitole in this division, getting him to provide big effort after big effort. He worked well over this course two weeks ago, so I don’t think he’ll have a problem with surface. From a pace standpoint, Santana has options, but I think he’s faster than any of these in the early stages, and that style fits the way the track has been playing. He was bred to a special horse and it’s hard for me to envision a scenario where he loses.
5. Mind Control: He is a two time Grade 1 winner, winning both races at 7 Furlongs on this course. That said, the Hopeful field he beat wasn’t great, and he was able to win the Jerkens last year when Shancelot hit the wall in the late stages of that race. He’s perfect at this distance, but hasn’t faced elite competition at 6 Furlongs. I can forgive his last in the slop, but I think he’ll have a better shot in the Forego next month.
My Picks: 4-1-2