Hey guys, it’s Andrew aka @phillyboy415 on twitter back with another full card analysis for The Daily Gallop. Since Colonial Downs has finished their meet, I started doing a major stakes race each Saturday for the website. As some of you know but most of you probably do not know, I am a Parx regular, I was a jockey agent there throughout 2017 as a young 19 year old and I grew up around the track. Parx has been a second home for me since I was just a toddler. I don’t ever recall missing a PA Derby, and I am beyond excited to be able to have the opportunity to showcase my familiarity for the track today on its biggest day of the year. Best of luck!
Tips of handicapping Parx, if there is moisture in the track or it rains the night before, play the early speed type of horses. 7F dirt races, stay away from the far outside positions like 10-12 and the 1 hole. The rail when it rains is also almost always dead. Let’s get onto the card.
Early Pick 4 (Races 1-4)
Main Ticket- 2,3,6 w 1,2,3,5,7 w 2,3,4,8 w 2,5 = $60
Economy Ticket- 2,3,6 w 1,3,7 w 8 w 2,5 = $9
Race 1- 7 Furlongs MSW 2yo Fillies
Top Pick- # 3 Boom Boom Girl- Jose Ortiz/ John C. Servis
- Servis usually has his 2yos ready first time out, but he lost to a Cash is King LLC filly for Butch Reid in debut with this one. She seemed a little green in debut if you watched the replay and she rallied well but was just not enough in that race. With experience over the course and an increase in jockey from Joe Bravo to Jose Ortiz, I like this horse second time out. She should improve on that 76 beyer in debut.
Underneath- I like 3 horses underneath
- #2 Project Whiskey – Frankie Pennington/ Robert Reid Jr.
- This filly ran her first two races at the Spa this summer. She debuted in the slop, and was green throughout and somehow Kendrick Carmouce got enough out of her to close and get third. She came back about a month later, and ran at 7Furlongs for the first time, and she missed the winners circle by about a head. It was a weird race in which she looked like a winner about halfway down the stretch and the future winner which was on the rail, looked done but somehow came back and won on the rail. I think experience wise she might be the most mature, because she had to fight hard in both her first starts.
- # 6 Aseelah- Mychel Sanchez/ Michael Pino
- This is an interesting first timer. Pino usually has a good stock of 2yo and 3yo first timer. He doesn’t have many 2yos but his first timers fire at damn near a 30% clip. She has been working lights out over the parx course in the morning. The bullet work on August 20th was really impressive going 47 flat breezing from the gate going 4F. Shawell has a few with Pino, so that isn’t the most outlandish thing for those handicapping Parx today.
– #8 Tale of Perfect La- Angel Rodriguez/ Linda Rice
– She was green in debut breaking from the gate and was stuck on the rail the whole way around. She finished 4th against my top choice Boom Boom Girl, and Linda Rice is 30% in 2nd start maidens and 20% with 2yos.
Race 2- 7 Furlongs Dirt 2yo Colts MSW
Top Pick- #7 Richie’s Edge- Gabriel Saez/ Juan Vasquez
- This colt should get the lead and I think he will go gate to wire. In his debut he pursued the winner all the way around the track. However, the winner was a filly who crushed the field with runaway speed. The stretch out could help as well along with the added experience.
Underneath-
-# 3 Get Set- Jose Ortiz/ Steve Klesaris
– Get Set, closed into a speed favoring track two back. He is coming back to dirt and has two trips over the Parx dirt course. The stretch out will benefit immensely for him today as well.
– # 1 Independence Hall- Joel Rosario/ Michael Trombetta
– I like this horse a lot in his debut. However, the rail does attribute to his disadvantage. He has been working lights out at Fair Hill for the past 3 months, and Trombetta seems to have him ready to go. Could break sharply which would cancel out the rail bias on 7F races.
Race 3- 7 ½ Furlongs Turf MSW 2yo Colts
Top Pick- # 8 Buy Land and See- Jose Ortiz/ Steve Klesaris
- This seems to be a horse that will be closing well with the added distance. He ran a solid 3rd against a strong MSW field at Saratoga in August. He gets blinkers today and a 2 turn 7 ½ furlong distance. To be honest I think 2 turn helps this horse today as well.
Underneath
- #2 Saint Marco – Tyler Connor/ Niall Saville
- I think this horse is sneaky today. He is just getting Lasix for the first time in his 3rd career start which is unusual in today’s times. He debuted at Saratoga and ran 5th with some late kick. He then went to two turns up at Presque Isle Downs on the synthetic and ran a little better but you could tell he liked turf more. The type of distance today is also two turns but only 7 ½ furlongs, and with Lasix I think he can be sneaky.
- #4 Perfect Daydream- Roberto Rosado/Carla Morgan
- A two turn 7 ½ Furlong race hits this horse right in between his eyes. He just got nailed at Colonial Downs going a Mile for a lot cheaper. However, he gets shorter today. I can see improvement from him today.
Race 4- 7 Furlongs Starter Alw 25K f&m 3yo and up
Top Pick- #2 Blue Eyed Girl- Frankie Pennington/ Marcos Zulueta
- I like both of the fillies in this entry. I like this one more because ever since Zulueta claimed her at Churchill which is a common trend for him, she has won 2 out of 3 with 1 second. Beyer speed figures have jumped on average of 28 speed points over the past two starts. Pennington rode this horse the previous two times and should have two wins on her in the same class and at the same distance. She should sit right off all the speed around her and pounce.
Underneath
- #5 Malibu Mischief – Luis Saez/ Jason Servis
- She was just claimed at Saratoga and Jason Servis brings her to parx. Jason Servis is 34% 1st off the claim and this horse seems to be one paced. However, I think she is the speed of the speed. Is she able to go gate to wire? That’s the main question.
- #8 Chorite – Angel Castillo/ Stephen Hamilton
- I wish this longshot was racing on the turf here but she isn’t. She is a one run closer for a small trainer on a big day. Angel Castillo is the best jockey to ride this horse in months. She is a cheap horse jumping up in class but this horse can close if the speed is that strong. Possible shocker.
Race 5- 1 Mile 1/16th Turf – The Alphabet Soup Handicap
Main Middle Pick 4 Ticket- 1,2,6,7,12 w 2,6 w 1,7,8 w 2,4,6,7,8 = $75
Economy Middle Pick 4 Ticket- 2,6,7,12 w 2 w 1,7,8 w 6,7 = $12
Top Pick – #6 Pumpkin Rumble – Luis Saez/ Kevin Attard
- This Woodbine shipper is a beast. He is coming out of graded stakes wins and top 3 finishes. He is an off the pace type of runner but can also come from way back. The distance won’t be a problem because this horse can run long. This is the most he will be carrying weight wise, but I don’t think that is really that much of a factor. Should get the trip.
Underneath
- #2 Chilly in Charge- Angel Rodriguez/ Miguel Vera
- This horse ran huge at Belmont on the 8th in the Allied Forces at 34/1. It was his first start on the turf and he ran his 2nd best race of his career. He has won a stake on the dirt at Parx as well, and it seems that Miguel Vera has this horse on the surface he wants.
- #7 Brevard Place- Andrew Wolfsont/ Jonathon Sheppard
- I watched this guy run 2 races at Colonial Downs this summer and if he goes back to the one race two back he can close and make an impact in this current race. Wolfsont is a way better rider that Boucher, and I think Wolfsont who knows this horse very well gets back on makes this horse a live longshot.
- #12 My Friend Frank – Tyler Connor/ Erin McClellan
- This gelding is going for 5 straight wins today, and somehow is 8/1 ML. He is shipping in from Penn and Presque Isle, but has been consistent over the turf and at this distance. Connor has been lights out since hopping aboard on the turf. He seems to always sit a good trip and pounce early enough and get the jump on the closers.
Race 6- 1 Mile 1/16th Dirt The Plum Pretty
Top Pick- #2 Imply – Julio Hernandez/ Bernard T Houghton
- I think the defending champ gets it done today again since this is a weak field for a stakes race. Going for 5 straight with a win here today. She loves parx and loves the distance. Should be a beast here.
Underneath
- #8 Trace of Grace- Inoel Beato/ Bernard T Houghton
- I only like two horses in this race and they are both trained by Houghton. I think Beato will have this horse just off the pace and he could make the upset but I think he is just a tad outclassed. Beato is one of the strongest in the lane and if he has any horse left he will find it and get it out of this mare.
Race 7- 5 F Turf The Turf Amazon Stakes
Top Pick-#8 Change of Control – Gabriel Saez/Michelle Levin
- I think this is the best closer out of the two I like. She just ran 2nd in a stake at laurel back in July. She also won a stake at Churchill in May of this year at 5F. Her best starts were the two races on the turf, and both at the distance. Good chance here.
Underneath
- #7 Enthusiastic Gal- Joel Rosario/ Steve Klesaris
- Joel Rosario on a closer is a beautiful thing. This mare is a perfect horse to close in this field, especially with the amount of early pace lined up. Distance might be an issue here as I think it’s a little too short.
Race 8- 1 Mile The Parx Dirt Mile
2nd Middle Pick 4 Main Ticket- 2,4,6,7,8 w 5,6,7,8,9 w 4,8,10,11 w 2,4,6 = $150
2nd Middle Pick 4 Economy Ticket- 6,7 w 5,6,7 w 8,10,11 w 4,6 = $18
Top Pick- #7 Golden Brown- Paco Lopez/ Patrick McBurney
- I like this gelding as a great upset chance as his beyers are increasing, and also he runs the best with Paco aboard. He has won state bred stakes however but I think the off pace type of style fits here and I think this could be the upset of the day.
Underneath- #6 Coal Front- Mike Smith/ Todd Pletcher
- The pace of the pace and the probable favorite. This horse is coming out of Graded stakes and multiple tracks. He has won multiple Grade 2s and 3s. I think he needs a lone lead in order to win, which I do not think he will get today. Too short of a price to be my top pick today.
- #2 Forewarned- TBA/ Uriah St. Lewis
- This horse has tried at Saratoga and at way longer and against way tougher and never really competed. However, the two races at parx before the trip to Saratoga could compete in this race surprisingly. He wants more of the flat mile distance and the class relief should help. Uriah does crazy things on big days, yet I don’t think this is a Discreet Lover type of horse but I think for a price underneath and if you are looking for a price to add to the pick 4 this is the horse.
Race 9 – The Gallant Bob GradeII 6 Furlongs Dirt
Top Pick- #6 Landeskog – Abel Cedillo/ Doug O Neill
- I met Abel Cedillo out at Golden Gate back in April so I might be a little biased on this one, but I know this Doug O’ Neill gelding is versitalle. He has a ton early pace but can also rate. He should be gunning to the lead early and I expect Abel Cedillo to come in here and take no prisoners.
Underneath- #5 Bethlehem Road – Luis Castro Rodriguez/ Dee Curry
- This horse loves Parx and Parx loves this horse. I think the connections had way to high of expectations for this gelding and took some shots in graded company but I think the cut back to 6 F instead of going route distances would be better for him.
- #7 King Jack – Joel Rosario/ Jerry Hollendorfer
- I think this is the best horse to come off the pace that is lined up today. Rosario is good with off the pace type of runners and with the possible speed duels up front someone will have to rate and i think he does today.
Race 10- 1 m 1/16th The Cotillion G1
Top Pick-#10 Bellafina- Flavien Prat- Simon Callaghan
- I want to go against Guarana just because he will be a short price, I think Bellafina, can sit off the pace a tad and make the right move. Prat has gone everywhere with this filly during her campaign and she has won everywhere. She also won two races as a 2yo in Grade 2 and Grade 1 company with Blinkers on but they then abandoned them and now they return today.
Underneath
- #8 Guarana- Jose Ortiz/ Chad Brown
- I went against this filly simply because of how short the price will be. Its is her first time at Parx which is a deep track and she might not like it. I also think she will have some horses competing on the lead with her in which she might not like. I think she is the best horse here but then again maybe not.
- #11 Jaywalk- Joel Rosario/John C. Servis
- Good old Jaywalk is back at Parx where she broke her maiden. She crushed the 2yo filly division winning the Eclipse as best 2yo Filly, and had some rough patches as a 3yo. I think she is turning back into form and this field can hit her right between the eyes.
Race 11- The Pennsylvania Derby G1 1m 1/8th Dirt
Top Pick- #6 Mr. Money – Gabriel Saez/ Bret Calhoun
- With Maximum Security out of this race now due to sickness, the field is shortened to 6. This is the smallest Pa Derby in recent memory for me, but the field is filled with talent. I like Mr. Money not just off the name, but I think with his off the pace pressing type of run style, he will fit well here. He is coming out of 4 straight Grade 3 wins, and all in deep dirt tracks. His beyers have been consistent and I think he makes some noise today at 2nd or 3rd choice.
Underneath
- #4 War of Will- Tyler Gaffalione / Mark Casse
- I think War of Will will like this type of track in my opinion. He could have won the Kentucky Derby if he did not get cut off turning for home by Maximum Security. He did come back to win the Preakness and showed his talent. His two races in New York did not amount to anything, but I think the short layoff and bounce back to Parx will be beneficial.
Race 12- 6 ½ F AOC 35K
Top Pick- #4 Midnightcharly- Mychel Sanchez/ Edward Colleti Jr.
- This is a class parx horse who isn’t just quite good enough for stakes races but great for the Optional Claiming. With a ton of speed lined up, I think this race sets up perfect for him. Dropping in from stakes company won’t hurt him today so I think he can benefit from that too.
Underneath
- #6 Irish Colonel – Paco Lopez/ Jamie Ness
- I used this horse at Colonial last month, and he won as my top pick. I like him today, however I think Midnightcharly just outclasses him. I think either of these can win though.
Race 13- MSW 2yos
Top Pick- #8 Spaceman – Mychel Sanchez/ Edward Colleti Jr.
- This first timer looks to be ready to fire. Some great works coming in to it. Colleti fires first time out usually. I like this outside post as well.
Underneath- #7 More Thunder- Irad Ortiz Jr/ Steve Klesaris
- For some reason Irad Ortiz Jr. is on a horse in the nightcap on a 20/1 ML, and I want to be apart of the group that uses him. He ran 3rd in his debut and is coming back to dirt today, and I think he will improve.