Oaklawn Park Racing Analysis — Thursday, April 23, 2020, by Dennis Trusty

Race 1 1 1/16th Mile. Alw 61000n1x Purse $61,000 FOR ARKANSAS BRED (WHICH QUALIFY UNDER RULES GOVERNING ARKANSAS-BREDS) FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $15,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs., Older,124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since February 23, 2020 Allowed 2 lbs Post Time: 2:05/( 1:05)/12:05/11:05

1 Turnstone 2-1 to me this is the horse to beat, looks like she is going to get the jump on the 2 who will be too far back. The 4 horses running style might get thrown off, because there isn’t much speed in this race and since she is stretching out from 6 furlongs to 1 mile and 16th she is a deep closers going short but speed figures say she will have the lead. The 1 hung bad last time for the same condition but at least at the top of the lane was battling for the lead maybe can get the job done this time.

4 Florida Bird 5-2 looks so much better on speed figures but stretching out concerns me. If she gets lost being on the lead since she normally is a closer could she get tired out there on the lead.

2 Get One More 3-1 won impressively first time out for maiden 25,000 and then raised up to stake competition going from 1 1/16th to 6 furlongs, and that doesn’t help when you’re a closer she ran about as good as she could have. But it tells me she is a good horse for them to take a chance there and now restretching out could help out a lot.

Selection 1-4-2

Bets $1exb 1,2,4($6)

Race 2 6 Furlongs. Clm 6250 Purse $17,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs., Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since February 23, 2020 Allowed 2 lbs. A Race Since January 23, 2020 Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $6,250 Post Time: 2:35/( 1:35)/12:35/11:35

7 Bajan Cash 4-1 2nd off the claim for a trainer that has fallen off the map in J. R. Caldwell but now dropping in class should help this horse. If there is a pace melt down, like Brisnet suggest then this horse should be running faster than a freight train in the stretch.

9 Freedom Hill 9-2 I don’t normally like anything with Turf Paradise, but off the claim for Robertino Diodoro and dropping way down. The only time this horse was at a major track on the pp’s he ran 6th by 14 lengths at Santa Anita as a 5-2 price. Also adding blinkers today too. Owned by M & M Racing should make a help in connections.

6 V Tach M. D 12-1 if this horse runs like he did at Fair Grounds no one beats him. I just don’t think he has it today, but if there are any here are the positives: only time the horse was in for that cheap horse crushes and even though it doesn’t read it on speed figures the best race was when it was in this cheap at Fair Grounds at this distance.

Selections 7-9-6

Race 3 6 Furlongs. MC 25000 Purse $20,000 FOR ARKANSAS BRED (WHICH QUALIFY UNDER RULES GOVERNING ARKANSAS-BREDS) MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs., Older, 125 lbs. Claiming Price $25,000 Post Time: 3:05/( 2:05)/ 1:05/12:05

10 Thornish 7-2 if people don’t think class means anything just show them this horse. Ran fantastic for MC 25,000, tried maiden special weight and even though it ran the same opening speed figure and time the 2nd one was just a little worse although time wise it wasn’t all that different. I understand Ron Moquett taking a shot their cause on speed figures that horse figured but when class goes it’s hard to beat. Now dropped back in class I think has a huge shot to go wire to wire here!

1 Broken Together 6-1 I think Kelsi Harr should take this horse way off the pace and angle out immediately and get off the rail, that to me is her best chance to win this race. This can be a potential for quite a bit of pace and this horse could send to protect the rail but as far as figures go his best chance is for an off the pace run. 2nd time in for Arkansas breds where he just missed last time for 16,000 and a minor raise up in class couldn’t hurt too bad.

14 Boo Be Right 6-1 if this horse draws in off the also eligible’s list he could be dangerous. Figured it out it seems or the drop must have really helped. Finishing 3rd after two bad performances in for higher races, I would have thought if this horse didn’t run last time would have been in for 8,000, but he did so they try 25,000 again thinking they have found their competition.

Selections 10-1-14

Bets $5 win & place 10($10)

Race 4 1 1/16th Mile. Alw 12500s Purse $19,500 FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $12,500 OR LESS IN 2019 – 2020 AND WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE DECEMBER 23, 2019. Weight, 125 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since February 23, 2020 Allowed 3 lbs. A Race Since December 23, 2019 Allowed 6 lbs. (Races Where Entered For $12,500 Or Less Not Considered In Eligibility And Allowances) Post Time: 3:35/( 2:35)/ 1:35/12:35

10 Moment 5-2 what a claim by M & M Racing and Robertino Diodoro. This horse should not lose today, I don’t want to say that but this horse looks 20x better than the field. Claimed for 20,000 2 ago ran for 12,500 and won by 4 lengths and was in last time a wavier claiming race where he won by an EASY 5. I don’t want to say this but I think if this horse loses, I will eat my left shoe.

5 Ernie Banks 7-2 this horse is good, just not the 10 horse. Exiting a stakes race where he ran 5th by 28 but throw that race out hasn’t missed the board since August last year, and wasn’t that great before entering the Johnathon Wong barn!

6 I Will Stand 6-1 I don’t know when this horse was in for a claiming tag, but it seems to me they are waiting to get back to Indiana bred competition, where he was much better. Still could run decent here and pick up 2nd or 3rd.

Selections 10-5-6

Bets $10 win 10($10) $1 exacta 10-1,2,3,5,6,9 ($6)

Race 5 1 1/16 Mile. MC 30000 Purse $23,000 FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. Weight, 122 lbs. Claiming Price $30,000, if for $25,000, allowed 2 lbs Post Time: 4:06/( 3:06)/ 2:06/ 1:06

1 Urbanite 6-1 it seems every time Steve Asmussen drops in from Maiden Special to Maiden Claiming he either wins or runs really well. I don’t think this is an exception here if he runs his first race he ran at Churchill Downs then I believe he will be tough. So, either this horse is a 1 turn horse or needed a drop down in class… or both and at 6-1 I think that is a risk I can take!

8 Mo and Go 7-2 a similar situation with the 8 here like the 1, I think needs a drop from maiden special weights. The only difference it seems Jeremiah Englehart knows this horse needs 2 turns and hasn’t ever been sprinting but has speed so I think a polar opposite for the 1 and 8 but both needing the same thing, horse racing is strange some times.

12 Ahsad 5-1 I don’t like the post here for him, but if Declan Cannon can work out a trip from there this horse can all of a sudden be dangerous. 2nd time in for maiden claiming is a huge angle for me even though I don’t like the major drop down and the comment of one pace last time out, the speed figure came back so high that he could win off that race.

Selections 1-8-12

Bets $3 win $10 show 1($13)

Race 6 6 Furlongs. Clm 20000n2L Purse $19,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs., Older, 124 lbs. Claiming Price $20,000 Post Time: 4:36/( 3:36)/ 2:36/ 1:36

6 Young Phillip 10-1 This might be my heart a bit here, but I like this horse I think he had and has so much potential, I just kept betting this horse at CD and losing and losing and losing. Now a light bulb angle of sorts and I think that could make the horse focus or win more now since he figured it out.

11 Belews Gold 8-1 the opposite of a light bulb let’s call it the broken glass angle haha, oh I have a better name Fool’s Gold angle! Gritted out for maiden 50,000 first time out then tried allowance and nothing, then 50,000 and NOTHING. Now dropping way down might figure it out again.

4 Botero 9-2 this is 2nd time in for a low price, barely got beat last time and was much 2nd best last time and Brad Cox might have figured out the class level of this horse now. I think this is the most logical horse in the race but I don’t think logic wins this race.

Selections 6-11-4

Bets $2 win $8 show 6($10)

Race 7 6 Furlongs. Clm 25000 Purse $28,000 FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. Weight, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since February 23, 2020 Allowed 2 lbs. A Race Since January 23, 2020 Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $25,000, if for $20,000, allowed 2 lbs Post Time: 5:06/( 4:06)/ 3:06/ 2:06

8 Coal Truth 4-1 another M&M Racing horse won 2 back for this condition, I guess he didn’t like the slop last time but I am not sure because it was his best speed figure. And Brisnet Prime Power picks this horse 2nd so that is good.

3 Spokane Eagle 10-1 believe it or not this is the horse Prime Power picked first by a HEAVY margin. Dropping in from 40,000 and picks up Joe Talamo for a 3rd time in a row. If he runs the 25,000 race back, he should be a serious threat and should not be 10-1.

6 Whiskey Echo 5-1 was claimed for 25,000 from the Steve Asmussen barn and was raised up to 40,000 now drops back in off a decent effort. If this horse goes back to the Asmussen barn he can really run a bang up race!

Selections 8-3-6

Bets $3 win and place 8($6)

Race 8 1 1/16th Mile. Alw 61000n1x Purse $61,000 FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $15,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs., Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since February 23, 2020 Allowed 2 lbs. A Race Since January 23, 2020 Allowed 4 lbs Post Time: 5:38/( 4:38)/ 3:38/ 2:38

4 Kiss More 4-1 class here since there are a ton of horses raising WAY up in class even though their figures are better. I think she is in good form and is going to run a good race, maybe not a winning race but a good race.

9 Luna Fortis 6-1 claiming 16,000 to allowance ran her best ever figure off that claim and is actually much better on figures here than any other horse (besides the 3 which was on grass races). I just have a difficult time trusting a horse raising up so high in class, if this was a 30,000 dollar claiming race I could go for it but not allowance.

3 Out of Trouble 7-2 if this horse likes the dirt, pack your backs, turn out the lights the party is OVER! Her races on dirt have left me more to be desired though which is my main fear, if this was normal she would be at Keeneland and probably would have won with Florent Geroux, but this isn’t normal so give me this horse at CD on turf. Not today on dirt at Oaklawn!

Selections 4-9-3

Bets $3 win and place 4($6)

Race 9 1 1/16th Mile. OC 80000n1x Purse $61,000 FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $15,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER

WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $80,000. Weight, 122 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since February 23 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $80,000 Post Time: 6:09/( 5:09)/ 4:09/ 3:09

8 Auction Fever 9-2 has been a different horse since coming to Oaklawn, it took her a race to learn how to run here but she got it together and won two in a row. I think she has the ability to win another race and make it 3 in a row!

1 Lucky Betty 7-2 her last race and her first race look impressive on paper and visually. I think she is the horse to beat I just hope the rail makes her break a beat slow and then she plays catch up and maybe the 4 squeezes her. If that doesn’t happen well, I just hope the 8 is a better horse, which I have a feeling she isn’t!

2 Seattle Slang 6-1 I don’t like this horse on paper but on stats I feel like this is the 3rd best horse. Asmussen is Shipper 2102 starts 20% win, 2nd off layoff 657 start 19% win. On times she is slow and it basically going back to square 1 for this horse to win and prime power picks her 6th. If it didn’t have Asmussen Santana and 600,000 purchase price, this horse would be 12-1 or higher.

Selections 8-1-2

Bets $3 win and place 1($6) $1 exacta 1,8-1,2,4,6,8,9($10)

Total 93

Average Per Race 9.30

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