Rebel Stakes day, in what should be sloppy day, at Oaklawn for a solid Saturday card. Enjoy race day at Oaklawn, and as always, let’s box them and bet them! If the track is upgraded to fast, I’ll adjust, but it shouldn’t change a lot in terms of the sequences.
I always love talking horses and handicapping. If I see anything during the race day follow me on Twitter @ BoxEmandBetEm and I’ll add up to minute info at Oaklawn Park.
Good luck and good racing!
Race 1) 6-10-12
Let’s start the card with a state-bred maiden race. There are in here that will be two start horses. This race is also for 3-year-olds and up. I’m going to go with Moquett and Santana on top. Two- start colt, was bet in debut and the winner of that race has won next out. Private Lake, #10, is a four-year-old and his race, off the bench, has had the top two finishers win next out. Takes the class drop, as well, and should sit mid pack. Round out the trifecta with, #12 Egomaniac, of which drops out of MSW ranks. Should improve as a two-start colt as well. I’m spreading in the early pick four with this bunch.
Race 2) 7-1-6
Dulce Ride, off the barn switch to Cox, is fresh and appears to have found the right spot in her 2020 debut. Has run well over off tracks, in the money in two of three starts. Always respect Amoss, off the claim, and he sends out the rail horse facing winners for the first time also stretching out. Ready Orb Not, is running second off the layoff, here, but it bothers me if the track does come up sloppy, she hasn’t run as well as I would like.
Race 3) 2-10-7
If Captain Don breaks from the inside, this one is the speed of the race and it could be over as there isn’t a lot of speed signed on here. Slop shouldn’t be a concern and should have no excuse not to run well for Von Hemel. Joan’s Delight has some races to draw from and enjoys the Oaklawn oval. Wet track record isn’t stellar, but has figs to fit here and is also second off the layoff. Should be dead tight off that win. Sir Brahms encountered some traffic, last out, and gets Garcia in the saddle, who is having a nice meet. Garcia should have this one closer to the pace.
Race 4) 1A-2-6
Mojica is named to ride the M and M entry here, so expect part of the entry to scratch. My top pick, is the 1A, so if the 1A scratches I’m not enamored with the #1. Top choice runs well at Oaklawn and loves an off track. Is tactical and is two for two at Oaklawn in the current meet. Second choice, Candy Carlos, takes the class drop, enjoys an off track, is tactical and should save ground from the rail draw. This one is second off the short layoff and figures to be dead fit off the last, when losing by a neck. Let’s get Fayette Warrior in the third slot. Has two wins out of three tries at the mile and is in great form. Santana sticks in the saddle.
Race 5) 9-3-2
Well, well, well. Blackberry Wine is entered in the MSW for 87K. After failing two drug tests and with the news earlier in the week, this is certainly a polarizing spot for this colt to land. This colt has back class, obviously, but at 4-5 I don’t know if I can trust this colt for obvious reasons. I’m not going to spend a lot of time with this race. I’m just shaking my head. Let’s move on.
Race 6) 1-4-8
Taishan has kept some solid running lines and is the class of this Optional Claimer. Drops out of back to back Grade 3 prep races. The class drops should allow this one to get home first to the wire. Slop shouldn’t bother this colt at all, in fact, should relish it. #4, Villainous drops out of the Southwest, though I don’t think that particular race was very deep. The class drop should help this one as well. Round out the top three with the outside colt. This one faces winners, for the first time, but is improving and should take another step forward here.
Race 7) 9-1-10
Silver Ride finally gets off the inside posts. Takes a class drop, fires in the slop and should sit just off the pace. I expect this one to roll home as they enter the stretch. Let’s go to the rail, with Sadler claiming this one off of Miller. Has been given over a month, since the claim, and should enjoy a trip at or on the pace. Much like Silver Ride, K Choice gets off the inside and should enjoy a better post as well.
Race 8) 4-7-2-5-6-3
The late pick four, starts here, and I’m going to spread in this race. I needed Bankit, last out, but was beaten by a head, so dropping out of the graded stakes should help this one. This one seems to find ways to lose races, so certainly isn’t a lock. Pioneer Spirit, #7, will be the engine and won’t mind it wet. This one is also dropping out of graded stakes company. Night Ops fits here as well. Is four out of nine at the distance and is in the money in all four starts at Oaklawn. Again, I’m spreading with the horses listed above.
Race 9) 4-5
This looks like a match race. 4-5, 5-4 unless Serengeti is the speed of the speed and just like Lady Apple is the class of the race. I’m going to go with Asmussen as my top choice. If the track is a speedway, on the slop, monitor and then possibly single the #5.
Race 10) 1-4-6
Rebel Stakes time. Let’s start with Nadal, who is an absolutely imposing colt. If you haven’t seen this colt, you need to check him out. Absolutely majestic. Obviously, you don’t win races on looks alone. There are many that question his ability to get two turns. I’ll leave that argument for another day. Baffert is taking the blinks off and he does draw the rail. He’ll obviously have to go from there. No Parole should also be on the front end. I expect a fresh Basin to show pace as well. Silver Prospector should sit the trip, on paper. I was texting a good friend, in Florida, last night. We both agreed that Nadal should beat this group. I’m not enamored, at all, with Three Technique. If he wins, I’ll tip my cap and move on. I have him picked third. A lot of people are high on American Theorem. The two races, in which he ran, have not come back to be very good. Yes, I realize that Storm the Court won the BC Juvenile, but that very well could be the worse edition of that race since it started. He also missed a work from January 26th to February 16th.
Race 11) 12-3-6
Let’s finish the card up with an MSW for 87K. I’m going to the far outside, as this Dallas Stewart charge took a ton of money, first out, and ran very well. Bullet in tow, second start horse, lots to like. Round out the top choices with the 3 and 6.