Solid card assembled, with big fields, highlighted by the Oaklawn, a local prep for the Arkansas Derby scheduled for May 2nd. I love the late pick 5 and the pick 3 that starts in race 5. Enjoy race day at Oaklawn, and as always, let’s box them and bet them!
I always love talking horses and handicapping. If I see anything during the race day follow me on Twitter @ BoxEmandBetEm. Feel free to reach out to me and I’ll add up to minute info at Oaklawn Park.
Good luck and good racing!
Race 1) 1-7-12
Rolling with Diodoro right out of the gate. Not going to spend a lot of time with the opener and I have a ton of races to cover.
Race 2) 8-10-3
Fairgrounds angle here, as I like horses exiting the Fair Grounds, that run next out at Oaklawn. Barn go to rider, Geroux, gets the mount; is tactical, and should sit a nice stalking position
Race 3) 8-10-2-3
Top pick is a standout on paper. The six-furlong time is very good at this distance. Robertson sends this one out for his second start. Note he lost to my top pick, Pneumatic, in debut. The show colt has come back to win next out. VanMeteer is hitting very hard with his maiden horses, so expect the #10 to be ready to roll at first asking.
Race 4) 5-2
Two horse-race here. 5-2 or 2-5 is how this one will shake out. I’m hoping that Blackberry Wine wins so his bandwagon fills up as I will be betting against this one with both fists down the road. Shooter Shoot will give us a possible barometer of Charlatan, of which I think is head and shoulders above the rest, at this point, but that doesn’t mean a thing for September.
Race 5) 2-10-6-11-4
Lots of interesting angles in the maiden special weight for fillies. Many second start fillies, along with an Amoss charge going from turf to dirt. I settled, for Amoss and Talamo, as my top pick. Turf to dirt, a solid angle for an Amoss barn that has been hot of late. This filly just missed, in debut whole taking money. Too competitive of a race to settle for chalk. I’m looking to get a price into my single, in the pick three. Cox, brings the #10, into her second career start and he’s been on fire with his fillies this spring and winter. The winner of her debut race, has come back to win second out. Asmussen debuts the #6, Causal, but I don’t necessarily like the fact this one has been working at Houston; I would have preferred Oaklawn of Fair Grounds. Include all other second start fillies in multi race wagers.
Race 6) 7-2-6
Here’s where I’m hoping Asmussen gets back on track, with #7, Pneumatic, as this is a single for me in the pick 3 sequence ending with this race. Six maintenance works since his debut win at Oaklawn. Santana gets the mount. Stretching out to two turns won’t be an issue. Look for this colt to make some possible noise with the Kentucky Derby date being moved. Note the #2, here, as this one lost, last out, to Taishan, a colt I like in the feature today. Pletcher ships in, #6, but I question the field quality this one has met in his previous two races.
Race 7) 11-4-1-9
Yes, I realize Asmussen has been ice cold, though he did win the late daily double yesterday, so maybe he’s back in the groove. Love his Fair Grounds works coming into this one, but has a wide draw, though his speed should get him in a nice position early. Was bet heavy in debut and as a second start horse there is much to like. Diodoro, with a second start colt of his own, drops the blinks and should improve second out as well. This one was bet down n his debut as well, earlier in the meet. Catman doesn’t win first out, but the colt in the one hole has nice works and I like the fact he’s debuting this one turns at first asking.
Race 8) 9-7-2-11-13
Competitive race here to kick off the pick 5. This is a field where I had a difficult time separating these. Settled on Proverb; this one is second off the layoff, ran a nice race off the bench and gets the services of Rosario. Has a nice maintenance work and Baltas knocks hard at second off the layoff. This one is tactical enough to work out a trip from the nine-hole. Second choice, on the stretch out, is Fast Talking, though I’m not enamored with the jock, but that’s a positive as the price should hold. This one will show speed coming out of the six-furlong race, off the bench, let’s get a price. All West, in the third slot, moved way up, fig wise, on the stretch out, in last race; though this one faces winners for the first time. The AE #13 is dangerous if he draws in.
Race 9) 3-14-2
Tom’s d’Etat is the class of the class and draws a nice post. This one fires off the bench and simply towers over this bunch. Rosario is four for four with this one. Single this one and move on.
Race 10) 10-6-12-4-2-5
It appears that this isn’t one of the strongest maiden special weights for three-year-olds carded at the meet, though most of those higher-class maiden races were carded as to give those colts a chance on the Derby trail. This is a spread race for me in the late multi’s. Top choice goes to #10, Dean Martini, though there are many in here that can win. This one is second off the freshening and raced wide throughout. Talamo is back in the saddle and should much closer to the pace than he was last out. I’m going with a price, as my second choice, adds the hood, is a second start colt and appears by looking at the works he probably had the hood on as they are nice works. Rosario is a major rider upgrade, for the #12, but this one will have to work out a trip from the parking lot. Take as many as you can afford here.
Race 11) 8-4-9
Top three finishers get an automatic bid to the Arkansas Derby, in this 1 1/8 tilt. When capping this race, the things I kept coming back to is I see a bunch of milers and one turn colts in here. Let’s dig a bit deeper. Taishan gets off the rail, as I don’t think this one necessarily wants to have the lead, but was given no choice with the draw last out. Second choice, Thousand Words, is a B teamer from the Baffert barn. He fits with this bunch though. I’m not willing to take 5/2 on him. I guess I’ll fill out the top three with Digital, though ultimately, as I mentioned he’ll be better at one turn. He did exit the better of the two editions of the Risen Star and did finish second to Blackberry Wine, of which I discussed previous.
Race 12) 5-10-9-3