It is Friday at Oaklawn Park! Overall last week I was happy with the handicapping, having winners in 6 out of 10 races. Bad news, I could not string anything together for some horizontal paydays. The 4th race, top choice placed for $14.80 and the 5th race, I picked the wrong Eagle horse on top- which was a costly mistake on the day. Normally I would be happy having 3 winners and 3 places on a 10 card ticket, as I can turn a profit from that, but with a flat-bet column, it proves difficult, especially when I am chasing $60 here to turn this column green. This is the final week of the column and the meet, and I thank you all for sticking with me. We were a few head bobs away from having a monstrous meet with some beautiful prices, but it was not meant to be. I learned a lot about giving out picks in this manner and hope that the team at the Daily Gallop will have me return!
This looks to be a fast track to close out the meet, so let us find some speed horses and make some money!
Last Week ago: 10-3-3-0 30% (6/10 ITM) ($20 wagered, $12.40 returned net -$7.60) $1.24 ROI on $2 Win Bets
Oaklawn 2020: 110-22-22-11 20.0% (57/100 ITM) ($220 wagered, $159.40 returned) net -$60.6) $1.45 ROI on $2 Win Bets
Enjoy the races and give me a follow-on Twitter @BDHorseplayer-
Race 1
9 DESTINY’S LOVE- This filly carries extra weight today but is 2/4 at Oaklawn and is a career 50% winner in 8 starts. Likely needs to step up a tad from the last performance to win today, but with the track playing to speed, I would expect Baze to have her out front early- as he’s done in 2 wins with her this year. Diodoro is still hitting at 23% for the meet.
3 POINT STREAK- Few different angles to watch here, first start for a trainer, class drop and a layoff angle. Horse is 4-4 in the money at Oaklawn lifetime and makes sense here, but the layoff is a scary thing to bet at times. Looking at the workouts, the horse could be ready, but several times with 2 weeks in between workouts, is a little alarming. I think I use this horse defensively.
6 C P QUALITY- This mare feels familiar to me but perhaps it is just because we have been doing this for most of the winter. I would have this mare as a higher selection, but De La Cruz has beaten me more times than winning for me. Normally I try to not toss a horse for a jockey, but sometimes, you just cannot put hard earned money in odd places. She needs to be close to the lead, but I question if she can be that close with the 5,7,9,10 all faster early. De La Cruz has been known to find traffic and I see that continuing today at a short price I cannot back.
Race 2
1 SO ALIVE- Javier Castellano is in town, which is a nice change in the saddle for this Brad Cox entry. Had a slow pace last out and could not get into the money, but no surprise with the trip. A lot more speed today to give Javier something to run out. I would be surprised if we get a decent price.
11 TEZ- Not a popular pick I imagine here but stretches out after being too late at 1 mile last out. 2 back was benefitted by a very fast pace, so combine today with what should be a avery honest pace, and a stretch out, hard to pass up. Tom Amoss has had a good meet, and I suppose someone other than Bridgmohan would have me more excited but take what we can get.
3 MO’S MOJO- This horse returns to Oaklawn after a very nice 2019 campaign before pulling up at Churchill and taking a year off. I think conditioning is an issue here for this guy, with only 5 workouts in 10 weeks but gets a weight allowance and should offer a value option for us to include. Speedster with an allowance is something to keep an eye on.
Race 3
8 TOO PRETTY- Faced a very fast pace last out after breaking slow and still managed to almost go wire to wire. Cuts back to 6F here, with that speed could be dangerous. Normally not a big fan of horses facing winners for the first time, but on this last weekend of the meet and connections unsure of where to race, I will forgive this time. Has made improvements in every start in 2020 and appears to be rounding into a nice 3-year-old filly.
7 THE MARY ROSE- This filly ran nice last out, but in 2020 I see an on again off again type pattern that I do not want to put my money on here. Does get a weight allowance and is 3-4 in the money at Oaklawn, with Garcia aboard who is winning at 19% this meet, hard to toss but cannot make top selection.
10 LIL TATER- Broke slow last out and never really contended. If De La Cruz can get here out of the gate, could sit nicely behind the speedsters and be prepared for a stretch run versus tiring horses. Carries a lot of weight for this field which is discouraging but could be best of the rest if the race falls apart.
Race 4
6 HINTON- I return to this well as a top pick with Roberts aboard for Ingrid Mason. Has not been able to beat BUBBAS DIXIE this year but today is the day. Nice couple of races since March with a nice workout for this gelding and gets weight allowance as well. Things are lining up and should be a fair enough price for a win bet.
1 BUBBAS DIXIE- This gelding has won over this track versus a few of these before, but a pair of brutal workouts after a lackluster outing at 10k claiming ranks, does not give me a good feeling about backing for a win bet. Might be a downward move for form and at a short price I will let him beat me today.
14 POWERFUL ALLY- This gelding has been impressive in the mornings and lackluster in the afternoons. Move to Lanerie from Talamo causes a little hesitation but seems to perform better at the route distances- coupled with a fast track could get a very nice trip today.
Race 5
1 GIGGING- Logical spot for this gelding who could get some help with the early pace being pressed by the 2 and 10. The move to Santana Jr is an upgrade and add in a slight weight allowance- no reason to rush from the rail. With the 12 and 6 in this field should have some value to play this Chris Hartman entry.
12 DEGROM- Wide post to overcome and will need a smart trip by Lanerie to save ground and energy. Coming down from the 50k ranks and some good action in low allowance company at Laurel. Should be short in price, but with the right trip should win easy.
5 TASHKENT- Not the ideal winner here but has progressed in each start at Oaklawn Park this year. Talamo takes to the irons for John Prather Jr and will offer fair value. Perhaps 1 1/16 is the magic point for this horse, but since winning 2 weeks ago does carry some extra weight.
Race 6
10 ONAWAY- Favorite here and easy to see why. Of the horses that have raced, this colt performed well after breaking poorly and having a wide trip. Does not exactly impress with the TFUS early pace rating but since breaking slowly I can forgive here. Last out proving to be a key race with all 3 horses that beat him coming back to post above 80 Beyers which are above par for this 60k Maiden Special Weight class.
6 SILARDI- This first-time starter interesting me, mostly from the pedigree side with City Zip as a sire. No workouts in March but has had 4 solid works in April. Should get a smart trip from Cohen who can handle a first-time starter but has yet to win for Peter Miller.
1 FAST CASH- Not very impressive in debut in what could be considered a dud for a 3-year-old but lost to LIAM’S PRIDE by 6 lengths. On a fast Oaklawn rail, this is the type of horse that could benefit and set the perfect trip, with the obviously faster horses having to hustle early. With the amount of immaturity in this field, this youngster only having to break and run straight could help.
Race 7
11 MAN IN THE CAN- Won last out in a race that should have been won by a closer with the hot pace for the class level. Rosario returns on this mount for Ron Moquett and this young horse can improve a touch more to get to the winner’s circle. Facing older horses at this point of the year feels odd, but all of 2020 does. The lone 3-year-old on the day before the stars run- lets give MAN IN THE CAN his 4 minutes today.
3 K J’S NOBILITY- Comes back to a route after winning at sprints for most of 2020. Has performed better in the 2 turn races and I expect another consistent effort today. In 14 starts at Oaklawn this gelding has been in the money 9 times. Will be short and this could be a good single for horizontal races.
9 BANDIT POINT- Owner/Trainer Robert Cline sends this heavily raced 5-year-old out who I cannot figure out why is in this route.
Race 8
7 STRONG FLAG- Gets weight allowance and Santana Jr on the mount. Has the advantage of having raced at Oaklawn and performing well, which is my knock on Gingham. Another logical step for this 3-year-old filly could lead to the breakthrough Asmussen needs to win today.
3 GINGHAM- I tried hard to not have this Baffert entry as my top selection, but on 10 weeks rest with the workout pattern coming from the Grade 2 effort, I have had difficulties. She needs to take a step forward to win today, this is a modest class relief spot and should be tough against this field.
2 PIECE OF MY HEART- Bested STRONG FLAG last out, but the effort 3 weeks ago seems to set this filly up for a disappointment today. Not sure if she can come right back and have a dominant performance again. If she does, she could be the real deal, but a regression to somewhere between last out and 2 back seems likely.
Race 9
2 VENETIAN HARBOR- Hello Mr Prat and welcome to Oaklawn Park 2020. This speedster has drawn comparison to SERENGETI EMPRESS and has had the speed to understand why. She likes to go and from post 2, should have no problem clearing. A lot of speed here but with a ground saving trip and a controlled jockey could get a great trip. Workout pattern was smooth and somewhat blistering for the expectations.
10 BRITISH IDIOM- As I said a lot of speed here, and this filly has proven she can sit back and wait the trip. For this distance and the amount of speed in this race, a patient Castellano may get a perfect opportunity to come with a strong middle/late move. Another logical progression from that February 15th effort will win today.
Race 10
7 WHOLEHEARTED- This mare comes in with all this back class from WILL ROGERS DOWNS! Nice effort earlier this month and the recent races fit well today. If SPEND SPEND SPEND had raced lately or ever been to Oaklawn, these two would be flip flopped for me.
10 UNIQUE FACTOR- Not sure if this Valorie Lund entry can break the Oaklawn maiden in this field, but 50% in the money, so we cannot ignore. Should be able to sit back and get a get pressing trip and if able to perform like she did March 27th on that sprint, could be huge today to upset the likely favorites.
6 SPEND SPEND SPEND- Long time off, but huge effort last August at Del Mar. The shippers have not been great at Oaklawn from what I researched but Richard Baltas is huge off the claim. Nice workouts at Santa Anita but the numbers could be skewed with limited stables out west at the track.