Sorry to report that the third weekend of the Monmouth Park meet has brought two weeks of crazy statistics crashing down to earth. With the exception of one $6,200 payout in the early sequence on Sunday, the .50 Pick 5 payoff averaged $745 in four out of five wagers offered last weekend. The number of longshot winners also decreased significantly, with only 5 horses paying over $20 to win and the post time favorite taking 14 out of 34 races run. But the real money was to be found in the exacta and trifecta pools. Ten horses over 10-1 rounded out the bottom half of the exacta, with four of these over 45-1. When you consider the number of favorites that have won combined with the number of longshots that have run underneath, it may pay to hammer exactas using the post time favorite with longshots.
The racing was absolutely fantastic on Haskell Day, as it should have been given that it was probably the best wagering card Monmouth had put together since the 2010 Elite Meet. Many of the winning horses were quite logical, but you had to get creative to find some of the longshot prices that rounded out exactas underneath. The Haskell ended up being a thriller late with Paco Lopez nearly willing Ny Traffic to victory as Authentic tired, but Mike Smith got Authentic there first by a nose for Bob Baffert’s ninth victory in Monmouth’s most prestigious race. Perhaps the most satisfying moment of the day came at the very end, when Jersey bred Horologist captured the Molly Pitcher Stakes- Monmouth’s biggest race for fillies and mares- to raucous cheers from the owners’ box. It was great to see her get the victory after the unfortunate setback in California and the death of her trainer, John Mazza, in May. Horologist improved to a perfect 5-5 record over the Monmouth dirt as a bonafide horse-for-course.
Unfortunately, many of the angles that worked like a charm for two straight weeks came to an end on Haskell weekend. Paco Lopez and Jose Ferrer didn’t combine for a single exacta all weekend with ten chances to do so. Rory Huston had seven total starts over the weekend, with one win at 2-1 and a whole bunch of also-rans at prices (got burned on every one of ‘em). Ferrin Peterson added two wins to her total but her other 11 mounts were all out of the money. I still wouldn’t count her out moving forward particularly aboard pace horses. The only recurring angle that is still positive and worth mentioning, is that Mike Dini continues to hit the board with most of his runners. Other angles mentioned last week either had a very small sample size or were not useful.
Several new angles were quite apparent. Jorge Vargas, Jr. was on an absolute roll over the weekend. His coming out party came in the G3 Monmouth Cup where he brilliantly rode Global Campaign to victory after seemingly beaten on the rail. That set off a confidence booster which resulted in two additional second place finishes in the G1 United Nations and G3 Molly Pitcher at 10-1 and 40-1, respectively. He continued on Sunday with two second place finishes and a win from five mounts. One of those second place finishes came aboard a 35-1 shot and his win was aboard a 9-1 shot. We will see if he continues to ride sharp coming into this weekend. Trainer Wayne Potts had a win, two seconds and a fourth last weekend, and none of his charges went off as the post time favorite. Through eight starts at the meet, Potts has not finished out of the superfecta once. Continue to respect anything he sends over. Trainer Nick Caruso has a win, two seconds, and two thirds from nine starts at the meet- he may be worth keeping an eye on. Finally, after a slow start to the meet, Jersey Joe Bravo connected with four wins over the weekend, and he only finished out of the money three times from 11 mounts- though it’s no secret that Bravo flourishes on big race days at Monmouth, especially on turf.
Hopefully by using some of the angles mentioned above we can connect with some longshots underneath in exactas and trifectas. Sadly, I’m not armed with any notable longshot trends this time around- things change on a whim in horse racing. Just when it seems like you’re onto something, new angles pop up to sweep the old ones under the rug. The trick is to always stay ahead of the game. Good luck to those playing Monmouth this weekend. Saturday’s 13-race card looks like a good one with full fields galore and several great betting opportunities!