Monmouth Park Racing Analysis — Saturday, June 22, 2019, by Jeff Byrnes

Monmouth Picks – thedailygallop@gmail.com – Gmail

Race 1: CLAIMING $16,000 – $14,000 1 1/16 (Turf)
Picks: 5-4-8Off Turf: 8-6-10
Summer Mischief (#5): Step up in class today but is 2 for 4 at the distance and has high causing speed that can go a long way.Trainer is 21% in claimers. Posted fast work last week shows he’s ready to go. 
Hustle N Heart (#4): Winner of three in a row but faces tougher company today. Has two of three lifetime wins at this distance. Should get good pace to chase. Trainer is 35% in claimer repeats and 22% with last out winners. Must use. 
Double Deep (#8): Slow start cost hi last out, but gets upgrade in rider and more ground to cover. Gets in Jorge Navarro’s barn for first time. He is 23% when first after claim and 36% in claimers. Could show more speed today. 

Race 2: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING $25,000 1 1/16 (Dirt)
Picks: 6-3-1
Lemonade Thursday (#6): Makes 2019 debut today, where trainer is 29% with horses off more than 90 days. Won on fast track two back with 92 beyer number. Has front end speed on speed favoring track. Gets Paco Lopez for first time. 
Guns of Steel (#3): Was 2nd behind Wooderson last time out, gets company he should compete much better with. Likely speed along with outside horse. Has 12 of 18 wins come at this distance. Has among the highest beyer numbers in the field today. 
All Star Red (#1): Breaks from inside and will have speed to close into. Trainer is 36% when second after the claim. Should get speed in front of him and will have a good trip from rail. 

Race 3:  CLAIMING $5,000 Six Furlongs
Picks: 1-8-7
Magnifier (#1): Drops two classes today, where trainer is 35%. Also is the speed of the field and has the shortest way around the track. Three of four wins have come at distance. Must use and heavy favorite. 
Tale of the Blade (#8): Drops from $12,500 to $5,000 today. Gets outside post today and good speed in front. With right pace in front he will close fast at the end. 
Forest Blaze (#7): Was second in this company last time out. Has cruising speed and can use it to advantage, live longshot.

Race 4: ALLOWANCE 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)
Picks: 4-6-2
Off Turf: 4-9-6
Bam Bam Blu (#4): Makes 2019 debut today. Trainer is 34% off the layoff. This horse has two wins and a second in last three starts. Speed of the field and has win on surface switched race. Speed of the field. Must use. 
Archidust (#9): Drops in class and could benefit from shorter field if there are scratches. Has speed to outside. Trainer is 32% shipping. All starts have come on dirt. 
Blue Chip Prospect (#6): Has three seconds on fast track. Bred for dirt, good speed, and has hit board in 11 of 13 starts. Big play. 


Race 5: MAIDEN CLAIMING $10,000 5 1/2 Furlongs
Picks: 6-5-4
Sir Higgins (#6): Drops to lowest level claimer of career. Trainer is 32% when dropping two classes. Good speed in front of him, and has a closing kick. High beyer numbers and god jockey/trainer combo. 
Bella Bank (#5): Makes second career start and drops two classes. Has speed and can hang with these. Just got caught late last out. Has the class to get it done. 
Decisively (#4): Drops down two classes and get a suspect field to face today. Speed is good here and gets Jose Ferrer for the first time. Good jockey/trainer combo. 

Race 6: CLAIMING $10,000 – $9,000 Six Furlongs
Picks: 3-2-7
Bourbon in Red (#3): Speed too inside and drops in class. Won at the $12,500 last out and has been no worse than 2nd in five straight starts. Class should prevail and us a must use. 
Merrow (#2): Won at the $20,000 level at this distance at Monmouth Park last fall. Drops further in class today and should improve second off the layoff. Back to surface where she has had most success. 
Midnight Sky (#7): three straight second place finishes and has finishes first or second in three of four starts at distance. Run well at Monmouth in the past. Get leading rider Nik Juarez aboard. 

Race 7:  $150,000 G3 Eatontown Stakes 1 1/16 (Turf)
Picks: 1-6-5
Valedictorian (#1): NJ-Bred returns to Monmouth, where she is 3 for 4 over the turf. In career best form right now and is the speed of the field. Worked a 47 bullet last week and is ready to go. Graded stakes winner earlier this year, faces far less than in the past. Must use. 
Inflexibility (#6): Chad Brown ships in and gets an outside post along with Jose Ortiz. Should be much closer to pace this time and has among highest beyers in the field. Looking to get back on track today. This is the spot to do it. 
Dynatail (#5): Coming off stakes wins at Penn National last out. Has high cruising speed but can also layoff. Will need a good break and clean trip to have big chance. 

Race 8:  CLAIMING $12,500 – $10,500 6 Furlongs
Picks: 1-2-5
R Lucky Dice (#1): Two straight wins including one here at Monmouth last out. Reunites with Paco Lopez. Gets the rail and has great speed. Trainer is 27% in claimer repeats. Also 25% wit last out winners. Must use. 
Assail (#2): Drops from $30,000 to $12,500 today. Has 10 career 2nd place finishes. Always consistent and in the money. Needs pace to chase but has good speed figures and the drop in class will help. 
Rithm Box (#5): Drops in class and has gonna need a good pace in front of her. Among best beyers in the field. Drops two classes and will be flying late. 

Race 9: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT  $42,500   1 1/16 (Turf)
Picks: 1-11-3
Air Attack (#1): Goes from dirt to turf today, draws the rail and should show a lot more speed. Nik Juarez is aboard for the first time. Trainer is 39% routing and 42% when first time on grass. Good steady works coming in. Live longshot. 
Trinity (#11): Drops in class and face much lighter company then in the past. Will have to work outside trip, but has posted big beyer numbers has traveled this distance before. Due for a big one. 
Rumors of Violence (#3): Ships to Monmouth and will bring high cruising speed. Trainer is 22% shipping and is 33% going dirt to turf. Makes second start off the layoff and should be better suited for this course. 

Race 10:  G3 $150,000 Phillip H. Iselin S. 1 1/16 (Dirt)
Picks: 5-1-3
Diamond King (#5): Was caught on the wire in the Salvator Mile last out, but now faces about same field he handled last out. Reunites with Jose Ortiz who won aboard him with biggest beyer number of career. Speed of the field. Can get done today. 
Bal Harbour (#1): Third in Salvator Mile last out should be much close to pace and won’t be surprised if he shows speed from rail. Loves Monmouth Park and has good timed works coming in. Big chance. 
Runnin’toluvya (#3): Winner of 11 in a row and beat Diamond King in the Charles Town Classic. Biggest question mark is how can he do outside Charles Town? Will need his best effort to win today. 

Race 11: G1 $300,000 United Nations Stakes   1 3/8 Miles  (Turf)
Picks: 2-1-6
Channel Cat (#2): Comes in off troubled 5th in Manhattan last out. Has won going longer distances and seems to thrive going long. Will be close to the pace, gets Luis Saez aboard, one of best turf runners in country. High beyers and all class, big chance too upset. 
Bigger Picture (#1): Won this race in 2017 and was 3rd last year. Loves the Monmouth Park turf course. Has hit the board in five of last six starts and is in career top form. Joe Bravo is aboard for firs time. Big upgrade. 
Zulu Alpha (#6): Won the Mac Diarmida at Gulfstream Park going this distance but was a troubled 7th last out at Belmont. Reunites with Channing Hill, who has three wins aboard him including a G3. Much improved since coming to Mike Maker. 

Race 12: $100,000 Lady’s Secret Stakes 1 1/16 (Dirt)
Picks: 8-3-6
Alberobello (#8): Changed tactics and went wire to wire last out at Belmont Park. From outside post, she will likely do it again, go to lead and try to not look back. Todd Pletcher puts Luis Saez aboard for first time. He is 21% in non graded stakes races. 
Pink Sands (#3): Filly has gotten much better as she got older and was 3rd behind Come Dancing in the G2 Ruffian last out. She will need pace to close into, bu she gets Jose Ortiz, who has two wins aboard her. Big chance. 
Coffee Crush (#6): Makes dirt debut today after subpar efforts on grass. Pedigree suggest dirt should be no problem. Trainer is 21% in non graded stakes races, and 11% in turf to dirt races. 

Race 13: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $16,000- $8,000 1 1/16 (Turf)
Picks: 7-3-4
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