Stepping in for my good friend Mike, let’s go over this eleven race Saturday card at Big Sandy, highlighted by the Pebbles, for three year old fillies over the Widener Turf Course.
1st race: 6 furlongs (Dirt) – Claiming $10,000, for Three year olds and upward.
Discreet Angel (1) – Trying to get a price right off the bat, this horse was running in Monmouth and Gulfstream Park, and if you take a look at his race on June 23rd, its good enough to win in a group in which the favorite has no wins in his last twelve starts. Gets blinkers on, a new trainer and Luis Reyes is very dangerous with high priced propositions. He should be at or near the lead since the start.
Orpheus (5) – By pure numbers, he should be a clear cut favorite. But how reliable is he, when he has no wins since at least October of last year (12 starts), and is only 1 for his last 22. He needs pace for his late run to be effective, and I have my doubts he will get it.
Getoffmyback (3) – One of the few that is showing some improvement and was claimed by Rob Atras, who is extremely effective first off the claim (20%). Franco should try to get him to relax a lil bit, as he went too fast last time out. If he can rate just behind the pace, his chances improve dramatically.
2nd race: 1 1/16 mile (Turf) – Md $40,000 for three year olds and upward.
The Happy Giant (5) – These horses have run against each other regularly, except this gelding, who has shown affinity for longer distances. If he replicates that most recent effort, he will be very tough to beat. Rajiv Maragh takes over for trainer Raymond Handal.
Sidd Finch (6) – He is an interesting proposition at a 10-1 morning line price. This is the first time he will face claiming company, and in March, he didn’t do bad at all running against MSW horses at Gulfstream. Manny Franco was the jockey of my favorite and prefers to stick with the George Weaver trainee, which we can not overlook at such a high price.
Paynter’s Prize (8) – Jose Lezcano is as hot as any jockey at the start of this meet and the horse is running in his second after a three month break. Had some trouble is his return race and should improve off that effort.
3rd race: 6 ½ furlongs (Dirt) – Allowance Optional Claiming $62,500 for three year olds and upward
Identity Politics/ Build to Suit (1/1A) – Powerful entry here for trainer Chad Brown. Identity Politics lost last time out to Borracho, who later ran in the Allen Jerkens, and Build to Suit lost a head bob in his return race, from more than six months on the shelf. Most probably we will see this one trying to go fast to ensure a quick pace for his stablemate. Best Bet of the day.
Eye Luv Lulu (3) – No doubt that Lezcano will be sending him to the lead from the start and see how far he takes him. Should have some company up front in Fuel the Bern, but under normal circumstances he should have a clear lead.
T Loves a Fight (5) – Grizzled old veteran that found the fountain of youth again after some subpar performances. Maybe the group and the pace projection of the race is not of his liking, but he always gives a good account of himself.
4th race: 6 furlongs (Dirt) – Maiden Special Weight for fillies, two year olds.
Magnetique (3) – Second time out for Todd Pletcher (27%) hot rate, and Johnny V. sticks with her regardless of his very disappointing debut. Risky Mischief, the filly that won in her debut race, then ran in the Spinaway, and she should be part of that first flight and should have first run at the probable early leader, Saratoga Beauty.
Saratoga Beauty (6) – Has the best figures from the ones that have run already, but has shown a tendency to throw the anchor abruptly in the stretch. Junior Alvarado takes over for Paco Lopez, and if she can step it up just a bit, she will be tough to catch.
Maru (4) – First time starter by Competitive Edge from the barn of Rudy Rodriguez, who hits at just a 10% rate with firsters. But there are not many alternatives here, and her works suggest she will run well in this, her vow run.
5th race: 1 1/16 (Turf) – Claiming $30,000 for three year olds and upward
Croque Monsieur (GB) (4) – He has never run versus such a soft group as this he will face today, and trainer Stidham sends him to the Big Sandy with options of staying at Laurel. If he gets the right pace, he will be a force to be reckoned with late.
Rhode Island (1) – This very promising horse didn’t turn out as they hoped at the beginning of his career. Had to drop to maiden claimers to break his maiden and now takes another drop in class. The rail post should serve him well saving ground while the speedsters fight each other. Lezcano hot as hell lately.
No Regrets (3) – First time in a while for him running two turns, but Castellano climbs his saddle and those last two races have come back strong. The distance is a question mark, but everyone deserves a second chance.
6th race: 6 ½ furlongs (Dirt) – Maiden Special Weight for fillies, two year olds.
Octava (7) – Here is something we don’t see very often; Johnny V. preferring a Chad Brown two year old over a Todd Pletcher two year old. The pedigree for this one seems to call for more ground, but she can take advantage of a slow pace and take over from mid race on.
Secondary Market (1) – Had some trouble at the start in her debut, so maybe we will see her at the lead from that inside post, trying to go wire to wire. Castellano repeats on her.
Mrs. S (3) – Of the fillies running for the first time, she is the one that shows the best workouts. But it is still puzzling why Franco and not Velazquez is riding her. Anyway, if she can have a clear and easy lead, watch out!
7th race: 1 Mile (Turf) – Maiden Special Weight for fillies, two year olds.
Trash Panda (9) – I expect a much better performance from this filly. Cancel is an aggressive rider and she is coming from running at five and a half furlongs in her debut, in which she was slightly impeded, so she will be part of that early flight. Contessa numbers going sprint to route are very good and at 20-1, I will give her a chance for an upset.
Coalition Building (11) – The number eleven post is no easy task to overcome at a mile on the grass, but I don’t think this is a particularly strong group of fillies and I suspect Castellano will look for her to be at or near the front. And, of course, is Chad Brown on the turf with a filly.
Look Me Over (1) – Michael Matz is based in Maryland, and he sends this filly to debut here at Belmont. She was hammered at almost six times her stud’s fee, so there are some interesting points to consider, and Vargas comes over to ride.
8th race: 1 1/16 Mile (Turf) – Allowance 50,000S – For Fillies and mares, three year olds and upward
Connectivity (5) – Relatively quick turn around for this filly, whose wide trip two weeks ago denied her of a win. Now she comes back in a very favorable spot and Johnny V. takes the reins for Steve Asmussen, a combo that we have not seen that much.
Star Swept (8) – At one moment, this filly was thought to have some talent, as they paid 75 times the stud fee. It is obvious that she has her issues, with just three races lifetime and with ample spacing between them. Kimmel is now the trainer of record and she has four good breezes in preparation. Watch out for her.
Keota (9) – She is maybe the speed of the speed of the speed of this bunch. She faltered last time out but that was in an off the turf race. Now gets to her surface and Servis is still very hot over the last month or so.
9th race: 6 ½ furlongs (Dirt) – Allowance N1X for three year olds and upward
Amundson (2) – I think this is the horse with the most upside in this field, with just four races under his belt. I expect Johnny Velazquez to leave him in a cozy garden spot, trying to take advantage of a fierce battle up front that should take place.
Invest (7) – Horse has been gelded since his last race, which was more than four months ago. Comes also under the tutelage of new trainer Gary Contessa, taking over for Linda Rice, and the horse has been working beautifully in the mornings. This one also gets benefited for a probable hot pace.
Lutsky (5) – The horse has been running against better, but with each new race his performance is diminishing. Also gelded, but with only four weeks rest, prefer to wait until the next one to know how well the surgery is working.
10th race: 1 Mile (Turf) – The Pebbles – For Fillies, three year olds.
East (GB) (8) – This filly ran last November in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, and was a distant second to Newspaperofrecord. Since then, has participated in three Grade Is in Europe, so racing in this race should be considered as a drop in class. If she gets enough of a swift pace, she will be right there at the stretch.
Blowout (GB) (2) – Very consistent filly who loves to get the lead and fight till the end to hold it. She have lost in her last two to Varenka and regal Glory, two very good fillies that should be favorites in this group, so Johnny V will place her at or near the lead and then play try to catch me.
Feel Glorious (GB) (6) – She is another one that can take advantage of a fierce battle than can develop up front. On her most recent, a slow pace hinder her possibilities of winning, now the pace should be more of her liking.
11th race: 6 furlongs (Turf) – Claiming 30,000. For fillies and mares, three year olds and upward.
Andretta (7) – Dropping to a claiming group for the first time in more than a year, she is definitely the first one to consider. She will be spotted in a very nice stalking position and should pounce from the three sixteenth pole on, and against these very soft fillies, she will be a tough beat.
Mike’s Girl (4) – The light bulb angle can be happening here after she broke her maiden in career start number 10. Carmouche keeps going to the pond and, although she is now facing winners, there is not much difference within the groups.
Something Joyful (2) – Dropping for the first time to claimers, she is maybe the best filly talent wise. But those last two races have left a lot to be desired, and she drew a bad post once again. If she can avoid trouble, she is one with a great chance, but I will not play her at low odds.