Monmouth Park Racing Analysis — Saturday, August 15, 2020, by Jeff Byrnes

Race 1:  ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING $12,500
One mile and Seventy Yards
Picks: 4-2-7
(#4): Arnold Ziffle: Five consecutive beyers above 70, this gelding has run well at Monmouth in the past. Good post and should have a much better trip today. Can bounce back quick off last start. 
(#2): Cheddar Club: Second last time out and beat a couple in here in that race. Inside post and should get a ground saving trip. Trainer is 18% with horse 3rd off the layoff. Should be up close and get first run. 
(#7): Best Choice: Five of six career wins have come at this distance. Faces easier competition today than last couple starts. Ferrin Peterson is aboard for the first time, who is having an outstanding meet. Good chance from the outside. 

Race 2: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT $47,500
5 1/2 Furlongs 
Picks: 2-1-3
(#2): Sky Proposal: One of two horses in the field who has had experience. Should possibly be on the lead early on, posted a sharp 47: drill last week. Kelly Breen is 16% with horses in second career start. Ready to go. 
(#1): Graceful Fancy: Draws inside post and should get pace to chase. Trainer is 14% with first time starters. Sharp workouts coming in and gets top rider Jose Ferrer aboard. Sire Liam’s Map has good record with first time starters. 
(#3): Man Em Up: Good works coming in, has a good trainer, Romero Maragh is having a good meet. Should have some pace to chase. 

Race 3: CLAIMING $16,000 – $14,000
1 1/16 miles (Turf) 
Picks: 8-6-2
(#8): Big Boss Lady: Broke the maiden in dominating fashion last time out. Jumps to $14,000 claiming level and should be the speed of the field. Trainer is 20% with horses first after the claim. Will be right on the leaders heels throughout and will get first run. 
(#6): Pearls for Josie: Drops to the $16,000 level today and should be facing much easier company. She will get speed to chase and is back at a distance where she has her only won. She has a good kick turning for home and will need it here. 
(#2): Ella’s Island: Had a troubled trip last time out and lost all chance. This time she drops to $16,000 level where she has her only win and has a 1st and 3rd in two starts on grass. She should be much better today and be on the pace early. 

Race 4: CLAIMING $8,000 – $7,000
5 1/2 Furlongs
Picks: 1-6-4
(#1): Drops to the $8,000 level today and gets the inside post. Should be able to use his speed early on and could take the short way around. Trainer is 32% with horses second off the claim. Will be there at the end. 
(#6): Fox Red: Bad start cost him a good showing last time out. Was second at the $16,000 level two starts back and drops to $8,000 today. Kelly Breen is on a roll right now and this level should fit him nicely. 
(#4): Greeley’s Banker: First or second in last two starts. Was second beaten 3/4 of a length in first start at Monmouth. Ferrin Peterson is aboard for the first time. He has run well at this distance in the past and should be on the lead from the get go. 

Race 5: CLAIMING $30,000 – $25,000
1 1/16 (Turf) 
Picks: 4-2-10
(#4): Make a Stand: Drops to the $30,000 level and takes on easier company after a run at Saratoga last time out. Posted a sharp drill last week to prepare. The distance and drop in company make him a tough customer. 
(#2): Matty’s Express: The leading rider and second leading trainer team up and get this gelding back on the Monmouth turf course. He had to check hard in the first turn and lost all chance.  He has mid pack type of speed and should get a pace to chase. Good chance. 
(#10): Oceans Map:Drops to the $30,000 level and gets Jose Ferrer aboard for the first time. Has hit the board in three of his four starts on grass. Lone win was wire to wire and will go from the outside. 

Race 6: CLAIMING $7,500 – $6,500
6 Furlongs 
Picks: 1-4-7
(#1):Gipsey Sorceress:  Was a sharp winner at this level in his last start and returns to the same level today. Trainer is 28% with horses in claimer repeats. Should get a good trip from the inside and be up close early. Fits well with this group and will e there at the end, 
(#4): Tarallucci: Finished in the top two in three of his last four starts. Was a close second behind the #1 in here last time out. Will get a good pace to chase. Hector Diaz Jr. is heating up and was aboard for the last start. 
(#7): La Belle de Course: Drops into lowest level claimer of his career and off a short layoff, comes in the race fresh. Hasspeed and could go fast early from the outside. Good works coming in and should fire fresh off the bench. 

Race 7: CLAIMING $16,000 – $14,000
1 1/16 miles (Turf)
 Picks: 3-7-1
(#3): Drops from $25,000 to $16,000 level today. Christophe Clement ships in and is 19% in claiming races. She broke through the starting gate last time and lost all chance. She must remain calm and gets Joe Bravo today. Certainly has the class advantage and should be tough. 
(#7): Fly Nightly: Makes Monmouth debut today and drops to lowest level claimer of his career. Mike Stidham is 18% with horses off more than 90 days. Has front end speed and can sit off the pace. Should like the tight turns of the track. Only win came at this distance. 
(#1): Indian Buzz: Speed of the field and from the one post will be sitting on go very early. Has run much better since transferring to the turf. No worse than 3rd in three starts. Should show better today. 

Race 8: CLAIMING $5,000
6 Furlongs
Picks:  2-5-11
(#2): Nolinski: Ran a sharp 82 beyer number last time out and will have plenty of speed from the inside. Trainer is 20% with horses third off the layoff. Speed has been good at the meet and should be tough in here. 
(#5): My Bernie: Three of his five wins have come at Monmouth Park. Ran well in last start and should get pace to chase. Posted a sharp 3F drill last week and is ready to go. 
(#11): Silver Starship: No worse than 4th in last seven starts/ Trainer is 10% with horses first time in the barn. Has finished on the board in half his starts at the distance. Speed is to the inside and will be flying late. 


Race 9: ALLOWANCE
 1 1/16 (Turf) 
Picks: 2-4-8
(#2): Pure Rhythm: Comes in off a bad run in a stakes last out, drops into allowance company and faces easier. Reunites with Joe Bravo and from the inside should get a ground saving trip. The tight runs will be two his her liking. 
(#4): Hero Comes Jackie: Should get a good pace to chase and ran a fast beyer last time out. Has three seconds over the Monmouth turf course and figures to run well here. 
(#8): Passive Investing: Never worse than 3rd in four starts, makes first start with trainer Anthony Margotta Jr. who is 20% with horses 60 days away. Loves the distance going today. 


Race 10
$150,000 Pegasus Stakes
 1 1/16 miles
 Picks: 6-5-4
(#6): Arkaan: Two for two in short career and stretches out in distance for the first time. Trainer is 25% going the route for first time. Also 22% in non graded stakes races. He has worked very well coming in, should like a speed favoring track, and pedigree suggests he should like the two turns. Will be live and tough. 
(#5): Pneumatic: Comes in off a 4th in the Belmont Stakes. Gets Joe Bravo aboard and should be on or close to the lead today. Has run against the toughest company of any horse in the field and should enjoy the track. Prepping for possibly the Kentucky Derby. 
(#4): Stretches out beyond a mile for the first time. Was a sharp winner two starts back but caught a wide trip last out and was no match. Should be a nice price by post time and like the added ground. 


Race 11: MAIDEN CLAIMING $16,000 – $14,000
5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf) 
Picks: 11-7-3
(#11): Empire Fever: Makes the career debut today and from the outside post will have to go from the start. Has posted sharp gate drills and Ferrin Peterson aboard. Should be on top early on. 
(#7): Bee by the Sea: Three seconds and a third in his six race career so far. Trainer is 25% going route to sprint. The $16,000 level is the best spot for him. Jose Ferrer aboard makes him tough in here. 
(#3): Garsoon: Drops from $25,000 to $14,000 and back to the distance he likes. The blinkers come off today and should show more speed early on. Trainer is 18% taking the blinkers off. Live longshot. 


Race 12: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING $16,000
6 Furlongs 
Picks: 1-4-6
(#1): Ancient Warrior: Back to sprinting after a failed attempt in the Haskell. Draws the inside post and will use his early speed to get an edge. Paco Lopez jumps aboard for the first time today. Speed biased inside run and has been running against much tougher. He will be one to chase down. 
(#4): Went West: Makes first start in nine months after finishing second in the Buffalo Man last fall. Makes first start for new trainer Kelly Breen. He has posted two start bullet works and seems to come in very fresh and ready. He will have to get first run from what could be a loose leader. Good jockey/trainer combo. 
(#6): Smithwick’s Spice: Was a winner last time out and has two wins over the Monmouth surface. Trainer is 11% with last out winner and has a good work pattern. Has faced tougher company than today, but he will need to go from the outside. Antonio Gallardo rode a great race last out and is back aboard.

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