RACE 1 PICK 5 STARTS HERE
PICK 5 THOUGHTS:
1st RACE: 5, 8 can upset the 6, I’ll play that to happen
2nd RACE: 1, 2, 8 are all usable
3rd RACE: Chalk Chalk race, live with being wrong if you choose the wrong one, I prefer 6, I’ll single
4th RACE: Tough race, no strong opinion, I’ll try to survive with 3 , 4
5th RACE: Against the chalk, 12478 with 8 being the top choice at a big price, must use longshot
5 CHICKIE LOVE has suddenly regained form and even finished ahead of the favorite two back. I wouldn’t want at too short of a number, but she should be forwardly placed early on and that could take her a long way in this group that doesn’t appear to have much other speed signed on aside from her and the 3 who figures to be a longshot chance at best.
8 DOC’S SAUSALITO is always a victim of the pace scenario BUT the drop in class alone makes her a contender in this field. The Nick Gallucci barn is going well and as this one drops in for the tag for the first time in several months she should be strongly considered, especially overlooked.
6 NOMATTERWHEN is the ML favorite with McNair in the bike and will certainly be a handful if he can repeat his last race from Nov. 19th which was a blowout win at this very level. The concern for me is the price that figures to be short, and the week off last week. He can certainly win, but figures to be over bet tonight and certainly is no lock as these cheap claimers rarely are.
2 NASTY RUMOR has been ok in his last two for minor awards and could be in line for similar tonight with the inside draw.
WAGERING THOUGHTS: Not a great betting race on paper, perhaps they’ll badly overbet one of these horses but it figures to be a formful result, nonetheless. In the Pick 5, I’d be fine with just using 5 & 8.
RACE 2
2 THEE DESPERADO was a no match 2nd to the class dropping Il Sogno Dream last week but he was plenty good enough for a level like this one tonight and I don’t think he was at all taxed last week as it appeared, he was driven to be 2nd and was easily second best. He was disqualified from second in that race and placed tenth for a pylon violation and now he drops in class to a level that makes him a strong contender, 7-1 seems crazy, I think if he pays more than $8-9 it’d be surprising
8 TOUCHDOWN AS is the wild card, his 4th race in 10 days, if he stays flat he can certainly beat this field but the way he’s been bet in his last few starts suggest he’ll offer a poor price once again tonight
1 SETANTA drops back down to a more suitable level after a better than it looks on paper 5th last time out. The 6 year old got no pace to chase in that race and could get more of that tonight, with a ground saving trip, both things that could help this one hit the ticket.
5 HETTIES COMMANDER is in good form but the presence of tougher foes make this one’s short price look unappealing, much prefer others for the win, logical under
4 HLDONTGHTTOYURDRMS is the wrong ML favorite, that’s all, play against
WAGERING THOUGHTS: 2 THEE DESPERADO should be favored, 3-1 or Higher is fair enough, 2 & 8 the ones I’d use to get through the 2nd leg of the Pick 5, and the 1 on deeper tickets.
RACE 3
6 TREASURED TEE stopped to a walk in the lane last time out after being bet down to 6-5 and has been off since. He returns to the track for the 1st time tonight suggesting that something was wrong, there’s a chance with the time off that it’s been fixed, so he’s going to offer great value tonight if he’s not favored, as he was 6-5 last time compared to 15-1 for the likely post time favorite rail horse tonight. Pick 5 single for me as it’s a 2 horse race and I want this one.
1 FLY BEYOND is obviously in good form and can obviously win, but as I mentioned in that November 10th race, this horse was 15-1 and is going to be favored tonight, even if he’s the most likely winner, he’s too short of a price, and as long as it’s a betting game I’ll take a shot against in the Pick 5.
WAGERING THOUGHTS: PICK 5 SINGLE IS #6 TREASURED TEE
RACE 4 STARTS THE EARLY PICK 4
PICK 4 THOUGHTS:
RACE 4: Don’t like race, but like a price in the next race so will play P4 with 3 , 4
RACE 5: 8 JANGONE a must use at a price I’ll single, backup ticket to include 1247
RACE 6: 3 , 5
RACE 7: 4 , 6
4 MCDAVE comes off the win out of town but has been facing tougher competition when here his last 3 starts and while none of those efforts look that good on paper the softer spot should be more to his liking, but he’s no bargain at a short price
3 BRODYS SCRAPPER has some versatility and the 7 year old is in good enough form to work out a trip, he’s hit the board in his last 3 and the inside draw should put him in line to do just that again tonight
6 TERO figures to be the “wise-guy” new face in here and that usually means overbet, IF he’s not overbet, he becomes a bit more interesting but his 3 tries over the 7/8ths mile earlier this year were nothing to get too excited about
WAGERING THOUGHTS: Not too much to get excited about on paper, I’ll fade the 6 in the Pick 5 on a guess that he’ll be badly overbet, the 3 and 4 look like the main two contenders.
RACE 5
8 JANGONE was a really good rallying 5th at this level 3 back and then dropped to pop comfortably from an impossible spot 2 back. He had no shot anyway before the break last week on the jump back up in class last week with droppers like O Narutac Perfetto and Buzz, and back at this level tonight makes her very interesting, and if she gets pace to chase she can probably upset at a fair price, 6-1 would be fair
7 WARAWEE SHIPSHAPE seems to be heading in the right direction and the blast and fade last time from post 10 wasn’t that bad, no idea what tactics will be employed tonight but can still hit the ticket with any racing luck
6 WILD AND CRAZY GUY is the ML favorite and with Waples in the bike he’s a play against, he just never wins anymore and while he drops to a level that he should really beat, I don’t like any of his miles since his last win way back in June, and I’m way against tonight as well
1 GISELE TREELANE found a good spot to win 2 back but found this class to be much too tough last time around, the rail could help save ground but she generally races better from outside posts with her closing style, 9-2 is way too short to consider, if she’s up over double digits she becomes “usable”
WAGERING THOUGHTS: 8 JANGONE is who I’m going to bet more than likely. I don’t like the favorite at all, Pick 5 I’ll use 12478 just because I don’t like the favorite at all. At 6-1 or more 8 JANGONE is a good bet.
RACE 6
3 ARTOFFICIAL FLAVOR faced tougher last time here and seemingly faced tougher out of town in the last couple over the half mile tracks of London and Flamboro. I think at 4-1 or more this one offers some value in a race where form is really lacking so you wouldn’t want to take any less than that
5 JAYDEN’S PLACE should be able to make the front in here and having not been driven to leave last week I would imagine with this spot in the middle of the gate Hudon will be very aggressive. If you get anywhere near the 10-1 he becomes interesting, but this trainer and driver rarely win so perhaps is best used underneath, especially if the price is lower than the suggestion on the ML
4 VELOCITY DRIVEN drops in class and becomes logical but none of his miles suggest he’s going to turn it around even with the softer spot, he’s a terrible bet at 5-2 or less and I think you are supposed to play against these types of droppers
7 HOMEY JOE needs pace to chase but he’s hard to recommend even if he gets it given how far out of it early on this one always is, underneath seems more likely and that ML is short so if accurate this one seems a play against to me
WAGERING THOUGHTS: 3 OR 5 are the two I’ll be interested in, odds will be the deciding factor. 3 ARTOFFICIAL is fair at 4-1, and 5 JAYDEN’S PLACE is fair at 8-1
RACE 7 STARTS THE LATE PICK 4
LATE PICK 4 STARTS
RACE 7: SPREAD RACE, BAD CHALKS 4 & 8 the ones that interest me most, may use others, watch tote
RACE 8: SPREAD RACE, FAVE CAN WIN BUT DOESN’T HAVE TO, 1 , 5 , 6
RACE 9: LOVE THE 2, MY SINGLE
RACE 10: FADE THE ML CHOICE, USE 4 & 6
6 SINGHAMPTON KENNY got parked throughout last time as the beaten favorite and comes back to the big track at a level he can probably win at, this barn with very few horses tends to send out live ones and I’d expect we’ll see this one try to cut the mile tonight as he figures to get claimed once again tonight
4 KEYSTONE CHARLES beat the 12K claimers in August and perhaps the return to the big track 2nd off the layoff with a positive drive change to McClure. If left alone on the tote like the ML suggests, this one becomes interesting
8 MOHEGAN BLUE CHIP drops back down to the claiming level and I wonder if this is a give up spot off the long layoff and then disappointing effort at the bottom condition level, I wouldn’t take a short price to find out if this one can still pace
5 SURF REPORT has just one win this year, and hasn’t even sniffed the board in months, you should hope he takes money and play against him completely
9 BLUE EYED COWBOY has endured back to back tough miles and with the last one coming just last Thursday, and the difficult post assignment tonight, I’m inclined to simply wait for next week as a no-try could be a possibility tonight
WAGERING THOUGHTS: With the 2 ML chalks with major question marks, I’ll take a shot without being too clever, the 4 & 6 are the ones I’ll use on top without the 5 & 8 in the o
RACE 8
1 ODDS ON AMETHYST drops back down to a winning level after a break 2 back and a trip around the track in the latest against tougher foes, If he stays flat he’s obviously a contender, but that question mark raises concern and the ML is half what he was when he won at this level 3 back, tough call, prefer over others IF the price is right, 4-1 or more
2 IL SOGNO DREAM dropped and popped because he was allowed to, and now moves back up to a level he can certainly win at, he’s going to be favored, but he’s not the only horse in here that can win
6 ST JAMES GATE has done some ok work at this level in the past and perhaps he gets left alone on the board and could spice up some of the exotics, his last was better than it looked against tougher foes, usable if drifts, and on P4
5 MARQUIS VOLO had broken equipment last time out and now drops in class to a level he should be competitive at, but don’t take too short of a price
7 VEYRON was bet hard last time out into the favorite and was dreadful, not sure how you back him off that effort at anything close to that 9-2 ML
WAGERING THOUGHTS: With the 7 VEYRON being a wild card that COULD take $$ or COULD be dead it’s hard to say what I’ll do here, but if I get 4-1 on 1 ODDS ON AMETHYST I’d take it. 6 ST JAMES GATE is more than playable at the ML odds of 6-1 or greater. I’ll take whichever one is higher than they should be.
RACE 9
2 SOUTHWIND TESLA just got way to far back in conditions that favored horses on the front end, and I think if the race sets up differently tonight she could work out a winning trip, and I think with the pilot change to Christoforou we could see an aggressive steer tonight, the ML of 9-1 seems too juicy, at 5-1 or more I’ll be on board
7 BIG RICH drops out of the Preferred and at this level should really be considered a strong contender, but he doesn’t have to win, and others offer much better value
1 CUE HALL has speed and the rail, and should be able to work out a trip in here to get a piece
8 O NARUTAC PERFETTO should get pace to chase in here, and he’s in good form, while he does his best work the level below this if things get a little western early on he could get a piece at least from off the pace at a price
9 CATCH THE DREAM also drops and draws the worst of it, it’s tough to see the 10 year old getting involved from out here tonight, much prefer others if this one takes $$
4 APRIL ROSE benefitted from last weeks weather conditions, and while he’s in good form this field is tougher and the others seem more likely, trying to beat out of the exotics tonight
WAGERING THOUGHTS: 2 SOUTHWIND TESLA is going to be my play as long as I get 5-1 or more, this race is wide open, so demand a price which ever way you turn
RACE 10
4 PROTECT BLUE CHIP is probably going to be a good price and I think is worth a shot. She shipped in from the Meadowlands, took a little bit of late $$ for a longshot on the last flash, she left from post 7 and ended up getting shuffled out of it and being blocked into the stretch. Obviously, probably isn’t as likely as the 6, but will be plenty a big enough price to try on top
6 LYONS HEDGEABET isn’t the ML favorite so I’ll hope others see it the same way, she’s in good form and really just finds a perfect spot tonight to get her second win. She’s never missed the board in 8 starts and she’s going to be tough in here
5 SHADOW SPARKS will face older as a 2yo after joining the Boyd barn but is in good form and while I’m guessing that was cheaper out of town, this isn’t some overly tough field, but I do think the 6 is more likely to win, and if the ML is right I prefer that one
1 SEA SHADOWS wired a field here from post 9 back in August and while she probably needs one tonight it’s possible she can get a piece though with early speed from the rail
WAGERING THOUGHTS: 4 PROTECT BLUE CHIP AT 6-1 or more is worth a shot, I’ll also play a bunch of 46s in the exotics trying to beat the ML choice.
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