Mohawk Racing Analysis- Jan 7, 2019- By Keith Rosintoski

MOBINE MONDAY

JANUARY 7TH 2019

RACE 1

2 LADY ELLA off the layoff is a tad interesting, but you’d have to demand a price given the chances she’s been given in the past, at double digits or more consider

5 CLASSIC BLACKJACK is technically dropping but wasn’t that good the last time he was at this level, I’d be weary but if he’s double-digit odds he’s fine

6 ARTICLE ANNIE was ok here 4 back at this level, and perhaps this one is worth a shot, especially if somehow goes off higher odds than the 5 does

9 BEACHES BE CRAZY is a tad interesting off the layoff as well but figures to be over-bet in this spot from post 9, at 6-1 is worth a try but nothing less than that, the qualifier behind Sintra was ok enough to suggest she might be ready off the bench

BOTTOM LINE: Demand a price, none of these warrant short numbers, the 3 ML choices are combined 3 for 65

WAGERING SUGGESTIONS

6 ARTICLE ANNIE at 6-1 or more

Exacta Key Box          6 / 259

Trifectas 6 / 259 / 258910                             259 / 6 / 258910

RACE 2

1 PARKHILL NONSTOP has been okay and was particularly sharp last week and although he jumps in class, he’s got the rail for the 4th straight time and his current form suggests he’ll be hanging around late again today, usable but not at less than that ML if you are win betting

2 MEADOWBRANCH MEMO drops a notch and draws well and could be considered if you factor in this spot is softer than what he has been facing, tough call but should be fair enough price

3 ST JAMES GATE was beaten just a length as the favorite in this same class 3 back and draws well tonight after two no try outside posts the last races, interesting, but doesn’t like to win

5 HEMI SEELSTER is going to get bet off that last mile, and a repeat would make him very tough, but where did it come from and is it replicable? Don’t take too short to find out

8 IL SOGNO DREAM drops and will go favored in here, I’m not overly afraid of this one, but he can obviously win, how short do you want though?

BOTTOM LINE:  The chalk offers no value, 2 MEADOWBRANCH MEMO exits the same race as the chalk and finished ahead at 2x the price, he should be more than 2x the price of him today, and is worth a wager if so

WAGERING SUGGESTIONS

2 MEADOWBRANCH MEMO AT 9-2 OR MORE

Trifectas 2 / 15 / 134568                               15 / 2 / 134568

SUPERFECTA  2 / 15 / 15 / ALL                   15 / 2 / 15 / ALL               2 / 15 / ALL / 15

RACE 3

4 TOUCHDOWN AS is interesting, December 3d he won easily, broke the next time out and rallied for 3rd still, followed that up with a double class hike no-try from post 8, dropped and nearly won at today’s level, jumped back up on an off track last time out and was given another no try, drops back to a level he can do damage at tonight, you won’t get 6-1, but usable

5 ZEUS LIGHTNING drops after a poor effort from post 10 last time, perhaps more aggressive tonight at a bigger price?

6 TRY TY AGAIN was a non-threatening beaten favorite last time out and is really hard to recommend at a short number, can obviously win but price likely too short

7 MYSTICAL MISSION is a notch below these and should be played against in this spot if that ML is right

9 SO NOT COOL drops to a spot where he figures to take a bulk of the action and might even go off favored, post 9 does no favors though, be careful if too short

BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE ML CHALK IS BEATABLE AND A GOOD PLAY AGAINST, COULD EVEN RUN OUT

WAGERING SUGGESTIONS

4 TOUCHDOWN AS at 4-1 OR MORE

RACE 4

2 REAL WILLEY has been sharp of late but I’m not so sure he should be 4-1 in this spot, and I also think he likes the off tracks which is something that could be a factor come Monday Night, upgrade if wet

4 R BAZINGGA is going to be the favorite in here and really has no excuse to not beat this field, only a bad steer or trip could get this one beat tonight, or if they walk on the front but he shouldn’t be too far out of it early on anyway, way the horse to beat

5 ALI has some back form that would suggest he may have needed the last and could fire his best shot tonight, I’m a bit more skeptical, I suppose if you get the 7-1 from last week you could certainly do worse

6 UPTOWN FUNK was 3rd to the likely chalk 3 back but has since been awful and scratched sick, more questions than answers, prefer others but likely a big price

7 HE’S GOT SWAGGER is interesting it’s possible he just prefers the half-mile track, I wonder if he uses his speed tonight, if he does I think he’s got a shot, usable at a price, think we’ll get more than 9-2 also

9 FOOT SOLDIER can hit the ticket, I’m just not in love with his chances from post 9, but he may leave and make this race more interesting too

BOTTOM LINE is the favorite will take some beating with any sort of trip, but that’s why they run the races

RACE 5

1 PHIL THE THRILL off the layoff figures to take some money as he drops to the bottom level, should show speed from here, is he the same horse?  I wouldn’t want to take too short to find out

5 SHADOW MARGEAUX is back for another year and if the 8yo can hold some of even last year’s form he’ll be a handful in here, you’ll never get 15-1 I wouldn’t think, what happened last time is of course bit of a concern but I would have to think he’ll be steered with a purpose tonight at this level, and if the price is anything close to that ML he’s worth a stab

8 ITS JUST TOO MUCH is the 2-1 ML choice but I’m really not sure how you back this horse, I think you just have to let him beat you, something he only did once in 17 starts last year, maybe at this level he wakes up, but he’ll do it without me

9 LONE WOLF TERROR should have won last time, and now gets post 9, tough to recommend on top from out here

BOTTOM LINE IS THE 8 IS NO BARGAIN AT SHORT ODDS, NOR THE 9, BUT IT’S NOT A FIELD YOU’D BE TOO CONFIDENT IN ANY OF THE RUNNERS

NO WAGERING SUGGESTIONS UNLESS SHADOW MARGEAUX IS DOUBLE DIGITS THEN I’LL HAVE A POKE

RACE 6

1 MAJOR MUSCLE was 4th this level last time out and actually beat several of these on Dec 17th, usable from the inside at what should be a good price at 6-1 or so

3 ODDS ON AMETHYST can obviously win at this level, but is tough to recommend, figures to be an overlay but is he going to try tonight anyway or just go around the track?

4 BUZZ is a legitimate contender in here and should be in front at the first call from this favorable post, he’s been sharp enough to take a shot on but you have to get 4-1 or more

5 VEYRON keeps getting better, he used his speed last time and held off the closers, should be forward again today, but not sure what kind of price you’ll get, possible favorite, and this could be too tough for him, prefer to fade

6 PL JILL was used hard from post 10 off the month layoff and still hung around decent enough last time out, draws better tonight, gets a pilot change and could be “live” tonight but I got a feeling this has “wise-guy” overbet all over it, demand 9-2 or more

7 KAMERAN HANOVER is in good form, no knocks if you like her, what kind of trip will he get from out here?  Interesting, if the price is right

9 DAYLON MAGICIAN and 10 FLY BEYOND figure to be spectators early on, I guess could rally for a piece late but wouldn’t expect either to get involved tonight, but we’ll see

BOTTOM LINE IS THE FAVORITE DOESN’T HAVE TO WIN THIS RACE AND ISN’T A GOOD BET TO DO SO AT A SHORT PRICE

WAGERING SUGGESTIONS

6 PL JILL AT 9-2 OR MORE

TRIFECTAS 6 / 14 / ALL                  14 / 6 / ALL

SUPERFECTAS 46 / 46 / 13579 / 13579                   46 / 13579 / 46 / 13579

RACE 7

3 LUCKLST BLUEGRASS was 3-5 last time we saw him and stopped in the lane, he’s back on Lasix tonight for Auciello and Drury sticks, 8-1 is unrealistic to expect though, and I expect him to be badly overbet, prefer others

5 IDEAL JET is so unreliable but his speed at this level makes him very dangerous, I would never bet at 3-1 or shorter though and he’s always begging for the wire even when he wins so he’s not a good play in the Pick 4 either especially as the favorite

9 TYMAL PEACEMAKER and 10 OFFICER JONES are the ones I’m interested in, but they may be 9th and 10th early on and that would make things tough, I think if they try they can certainly win, but who knows if they will; watch the board?

8 PAPARAZZI HANOVER is a bit interesting having shown speed a bunch of late, he may be able to sit behind the 5 who is usually a few lengths clear early on and perhaps he inherits the lead when that one starts to pack it in, at a price is usable

BOTTOM LINE IS THAT 5 IDEAL JET DOESN’T LIKE TO WIN RACES AND IS ALSO ALWAYS A CANDIDATE TO RUN OUT BECAUSE OF HOW FAST HE GOES EARLY ON

WAGERING SUGGESTIONS:  TOSS THE 5 IDEAL JET OUT OF THE TOP COUPLE SPOTS AND HAVE SOME FUN IN THE EXOTICS

RACE 8

1 CUE HALL has had speed early on and not finished off the miles all that great, perhaps finding the preferred a bit too tough, should be forward again from the inside draw, unless they are ready to no try for the drop, watch the board for hints, much prefer others on top

2 DUNBAR HALL has been rock solid and the try after missing a month was superb last time out, outside of the sloppy track at the end of November this one has won 3 of the last 4 at this level, the one to beat, but at a short price and if the track’s off, you never know

3 MUSICAL RHYTHM probably isn’t a true Preferred type but has been in good form, no knocks if you want to use underneath at a price, must get a little bit of luck on the trip though

4 DANCER HALL hasn’t been able to beat the favorite and for that reason alone figures to be badly overbet, favored in 4 of his last 5 he won’t be favored tonight, but I wouldn’t want him as the 2nd choice either

5 B YOYO gets a negative driver change but may get an off track, I prefer others

6 FREE WILLY HANOVER has been good even at this level and if left alone on the board could be useable in exotic wagers underneath, would need a trip and then some to win probably though

7 BIG RICH is close to a class drop, here comes a no try, toss

8 MANOFMANYIMAGES is a cut below these but is razor sharp, usable under at a price if you like, but post 8 does no favors

9 ON A SUNNY DAY was an 11-1 no match for this level 3 back and finished well behind several of these, that was off a 3 week hiatus though, and the last two have been sharp, but from post 9 with a driver switch I wonder if he’ll even get involved before this race hits the stretch, tough call, wouldn’t want at 5-1 though

BOTTOM LINE IS DUNBAR HALL COULD BE THE BEST TROTTER ON THE GROUNDS RIGHT NOW, AND THIS RACE GOES THROUGH HIM

NO WAGERING SUGGESTIONS BUT WILL USE TOTE AS GUIDE FOR SUPERS UNDER THE CHALK 

RACE 9

2 TOMY TERROR continues to have some trot on both ends of his miles, at this level that’s going to earn you a lot of checks, can he get the money tonight?  8-1 would be more than fair, but unlikely to get that

3 MCSINNER MAN faceD a sharp winner in an 8-10K claimer and finds a softer field seemingly, the problem is when he won he paid $79, he’ll pay 1/3rd that tonight if he does it again

6 OK ICEMAN drops to a give up spot seemingly, but does he have enough life for one more mile?  This barn has been hot the past month, should be a big number

8 DARCEE is always overbet and never wins, easy toss out of the top spot, especially at short odds

9 MOHEGAN BLUE CHIP clearly has issues, made just 5 starts in ’18 and 3 of them in the last month of the year, drops to a desperate spot where he figures to get claimed, but 5-2 without racing in 3 weeks from post 9?  No thanks

10 BRICKMAN hasn’t won since first time Moreau when he paid $20 on October 29th, since he’s burned money never going off higher than 6-1 and recording zero wins with 4x being the beaten favorite, good luck if you like him from post 10, even on the drop from 12K level

BOTTOM LINE IS 2, 3, 6 ARE THE ONLY ONES THAT WILL BE BIG ENOUGH PRICES TO CONSIDER, THEY MAY NOT BE MOST LIKELY WINNERS BUT IN THIS FIELD, TAKE A SHOT

WAGERING SUGGESTIONS

TRIFECTAS   2 / 36 / 1368910                       36 / 2 / 1368910

RACE 10

4 BETWEEN THE SHEETS is sharp and did win at this level last out but he did get a pretty good trip that day perhaps the wet track helped as well, but I don’t want this horse off a win, especially at a short price

5 LEGAL BETTOR was bet last time and obviously had issues, but if willing to forgive, this one has raced better of late and if he’s really lost in the wagering like the ML suggests I’d like him even more, a contender at a fair price of 5-1 or more

6 JONAH barely got up on debut, tough ask right away, but perhaps he’s the goods?  We’ll find out tonight I’m sure, maybe at a price?

7 AGEDCHEDAR HANOVER can’t win a break at the draws and it’s likely costing him wins at this level as he has to use his early speed to get involved, likely needs two moves to win again, which makes him a play against at short price, if he drifts?

10 SPORTS CHARM was impressive last week, if he does it again from post 10, he’ll beat me, 7-2 would be fair, but he’s likely to be favored in here

BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE 10 will have his work cut out for him from post 10, very beatable favorite

WAGERING SUGGESTIONS

BET 5 LEGAL BETTOR AT 5-1 OR MORE

TRIFECTAS 5 / 67 / 46710                              67 / 5 / 46710

SUPERFECTAS    5 / 467 / 467 / ALL

Good Luck Everyone, follow along on Twitter @LegendBets #MobineMonday

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