Laurel Park Racing Analysis- Sunday November 11, 2018- By Jeffrey Byrnes

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All races being played as if they are off the turf. 
Race 1: MAIDEN CLAIMING $25,000
Picks: 6-7-8
Johnny Banks (#6): Johnny Banks makes first career start in Maryland for leading trainer Claudio Gonzalez. He was facing tougher in Kentucky and now in Maryland. Trainer is 24% in maiden claiming and 22% when off for 45 days or more. Was competing at $45,000 maiden level and drops to lowest level of career. Must use. 
Hunt Me Down (#7): Returns to dirt where he ran best two races of his career. Successful jockey/trainer combination. Finished in the superfecta in three straight, all at today’s distance.
road to Oz (#8): Drops to lowest level of his career after competing at $40,000 level. Goes turf to dirt where trainer is 17% and picks up Victor Cassasco. Will need pace, if so, he will be coming late.
Race 2: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $25,000 Six Furlongs
Picks: 1-2-4
Vineyard (#1): Returns to this level after subpar effort last out. Reunited with jockey Kevin Gomez, who was aboard for his only victory three back in a $35,000 maiden race. Has tactical speed, and can use the rail to save ground and get position. If he gets lead, he could go all day.
Jack of Spades (#2): Comes in off sharp win last out in a  $16,000 maiden claimer. Not a lot of speed in the race besides the #1. If he can clear leaders and slow pace down, he will be tough to catch. 
Godlovesasinner (#4): Drops in distance today and also has a good setup, will be mid pack, Jevian Toledo gets aboard as one of the meet’s leading riders. 
Race 3: CLAIMING $25,000 5 1/2 furlongs 
Picks: 7-3-2
Knock Out Kid (#7): Come-on off sharp 4th in the Maryland Million Lassie. Was only beaten two lengths and gets Victor Carrasco. Now back in $25,000 company, she will sit mid pack and should be good enough to get by these fillies. 
Sip of Sunshine (#3): Back to back wins while increasing in company. She has plenty of speed and she can get away in a flash.
My Muchacha (#2): Dominated $16,000 claiming level last out and steps up in class today. Has a lot of speed, trainer is 15% in claiming starts. Solid jockey/ trainer combination. 
Race 4: WAIVER MAIDEN CLAIMING $40,000 – $35,000 
5 1/2 furlongs 
Picks: 11-7-2
Vee’s Super Star (#11): Makes career debut for trainer who is 17% in debuting maiden claiming races. Good jockey/ trainer combination. Solid work pattern coming in, outside post should help. 
By the Sea Shore (#7): Was 3rd, beaten a length and a half on debut and comes back in this level second out. He posted the fastest work of 21 going four furlongs last week. He could use his speed to steal it. Must use. 
Celtic Treasure (#2): Debuted in $34,000 maiden claimer and ran a solid 4th. Now he drops to the claiming ranks and gets firs time lasix. Trainer is 20% in second starts, and 20% in maiden to maiden claimers. 
Race 5: WAIVER MAIDEN CLAIMING $40,000 – $35,000 
5 1/2 furlongs
Picks: 1-11-13
Raging Blaze (#1): As race comes off turf, this horse will benefit, all three races have come on main track and his last was best. Second at this level has speed to inside. Pedigree suggests he should love the dirt. Solid jockey/trainer combination. Must use.
Ellanation (#11): Both career starts came on the dirt and he was second at this level last time out. He has plenty of speed, but with reduced field, he will go early. Could be one worth a play.
Kentucky Smooth (#13): Was 3rd at this level in career debut, wirth scratches, a reduced field helps her chances. Solid work pattern coming in and will sit off a good pace. Will get a late run.
Race 6: CLAIMING $16,000 – $14,000 One Mile 
Picks: 5-2-4
Calvi (#5): Drops from $25,000 to $16,000 today and has a second place finish in his lone start at Laurel Park. His lone win was a wire to wire win at this level two starts back. Solid jockey /trainer combination. Must use. 
So Good (#2): Was third in last start at this level, picks up hot jockey Trevor McCarthy and has solid work pattern coming in. Not  a lot of speed, could benefit from inside post. 
Chinquapin (#4): Trying to rebound off back to back poor efforts, but this is one of the softest fields he faces. He will get a good trip, will need pace, but if he runs to his second three starts back, he has a chance. 
Race 7: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING $50,000 1 1/16 Dirt
Picks: 3-6-7
Bonus Points (#3): Might be shortest price of the day. Won the 2017 Maryland Million Classic. He has been first or second in all five Laurel Park starts. Todd Pletcher is 25% in dirt starts this meet. Must use. 
Adulator (#6): Dropped to lowest level in career and won in Laurel Park debut. Trainer is 26% in last out wins and 21% in allowance races. This horse will be one the lead, question in can he hold off the class he faces.
Balfour (#7): On the board in all ten career starts. Was a solid third in the Find Stakes last out. He has a win and a second at this distance. Gets Trevor McCarthy as a huge plus. Will be mid pack and chase the pace. 
Race 8:  CLAIMING $16,000 – $14,000 5 1/2 furlongs 
Picks: 3-4-5
Wiggle Room (#3): In five starts on dirt, he has two seconds and a third. He has hit the board in three straight and her only win comes at this distance. Also drops in class, should get pace, pedigree suggests she should love dirt. 
Angelinas Star (#4): Comes off a win at the $16,000 level in wire to wire fashion. Not a lot of speed again. Also with closers next to him, he can clear and get to lead. 
Final Fear (#5): Finished in the superfecta in four straight starts and if it wasn’t for a bobbled start last time, she could have won. She will need a clean break, she has the class and this field isn’t the toughest. Must use. 
Race 9: CLAIMING $12,500 – $10,000 5 1/2 furlongs 
Picks: 5-3-1
Feelin Foxie (#5): Drops from $16,000 to $12,500 off a win last out. A change in tactics was successful. Going wire to wire and pulling away. Trainer is 20% with last out winners and Katie Davis is back aboard after last race. Must use. 
Gingeresk (#3): Pulled up lat time out after a bad trip, comes back here against weaker and posted a nice work last week. Good jockey / trainer combination. 
On the Hop (#1): Finished in the superfecta in five straight starts, including a win last time out. Trainer is 19% with last out winners and 26% in claimer repeats. She can sit on the lead or off the pace, could be coming late. 
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