Race 1: OC$25k 1& 1/16thM Turf
1st: #7 Toe Curlin Kiss, handicapping as if they’re staying on the turf, I like this one’s proven ability to make up lengths down the stretch at this distance. Causeforcelebration has turned himself into a very solid horse, to finish just a nose behind him is a good effort. The favorite in this race, #3 Tauber doesn’t look like a horse that gets stronger at these two turn distances, will play against.
2nd: #3 Tauber, good on turf or dirt, he has the highest Beyer figures in the race and nearly won twice so far at this level. As mentioned above, don’t believe in him at this distance.
3rd: #5 Real Factor, like this one a little more than the favorite also, just doesn’t quite having a passing gear late. Maybe the classiest horse nonetheless.
OFF turf: 6, 3, 7
Race 2: MdClm $10k 1M
1st: #7 Bambino, 8-5ML favorite for the first time under Jose Corrales’ care. Corrales has shown a keen ability to improve his horses in the low level claiming ranks. 0-12 lifetime not pretty but has mostly been racing above this level and can note recent Beyer improvement since getting away from the turf. Second place finisher in the last has since come back to break his maiden at the $25k level and followed it up with another win against open $25k claimers. 8-5 would be more than fair.
2nd: #8 Elusive Motion, has shown slight improvement from first to second to third. Winner of the last Bayano is entered against $5k claimers later on on this card. Modest.
3rd: #9 Overpower, not trusting the Beyer improvement of the last race in the slop. Second place finisher in that one Aleph is in this race and he followed up the second place effort with a dull 5th place effort at 5-2.
Race 3: OC$50k 1 & 1/16thM Turf
1st: #2 Outofthepark, a no brain here, 2 for 2 since the lockdown ended, the Beyers are headed in the right direction tremendously, and most importantly, Papal Law who was second in his last out came back to absolutely destroy a group of OC$35k horses.
2nd: #5 Gunnison, overall headed in the right direction speed figure-wise, coming off two straight 90s down at GP in the winter. Love that Kelly got him a little break, he should be ready to fire. She once thought very highly of this horse after winning against open stakes company at Mth she tried two graded stakes races and he didn’t embarrass.
3rd: #4 Surprise Twist, it’s Delacour of course with a stakes level horse having come in second in 3 stakes last year. Tried marathon events last summer and fall, his best success has come at slightly shorter distances, think he’ll like a little distance relief today.
OFF turf: 6, 7, 1
Race 4: OC$25k 6 & ½F
1st: #2 Ballivor, just 3 for 20 locally for this 7 year old son of my all time favorite horse Hard Spun, this one has mostly faced much, much tougher in his career. Taco Supream, the DQd winner of the 2 back event cemented himself as a bona fide stakes horse in 2019 when after a string of allowance wins he won the MdMill Sprint Handicap against some very tough foes including GSW Call Paul. Wasn’t primed for victory in his first back off the layoff, but again faced very tough: the winner ThreesOverDeuces another stakes horse who placed in the G3 General George here in February. Only qualifies for this event by being up for sale, he’ll be ready to win today.
2nd: #6 Cerulean Springs, love this hard charging closer who picks up check after check. Only won once in 2019 and probably needs a more considerable pace scenario than exists in this event to get the win, but no doubt he’ll be running late and will be at his best third off the layoff. Considerable improvement from first to second back, watch for this one the rest of the summer.
3rd: #1 Divine Interventio, honest gelding who has gotten back to his best career figures each of the last three. Was third last out at 17-1 and the winner Confessor came back to win against open $20k claimers.
Race 5: MdClm $16k F&M 5 & ½F Turf
1st: #5 Enyo, was outclassed amongst MdSpWt company last year, dropped to this level for her first start as a 4 year old and ran the best race of her life, a 48 Beyer figure and a gaining 2nd at 10-1. A little improvement wins this one, should be ample pace for her to close into.
2nd: #3Splasherstown, career debut last fall as a 2 year old was an impressive second beating 7 rivals. She followed it up with a decent showing at Aqueduct in MdSpWt company. Gets lasix for the first time today. Hasn’t been seen since last November however, likely to need some conditioning. Note Niall Saville an impressive 3 wins out of 4 starts this meeting.
3rd: #10 Mabel’s Fable, first start back since last year was a solid 3rd earning a 47 Beyer. Eligible to improve.
OFF turf: 11, 1, 4,
Race 6: Clm $5k 5 & ½F
1st: #1 Strive for a Cure, speed dropping in class breaking from the rail is one of my favorite angles. Ignore the last out effort on turf, the two back effort in which this one set a very strong pace again breaking from the rail turned out to be quite a key race. The winner Pataz came back to win against $12.5k claimers and then finished second against $16k claimers after that. The second place finisher Creative Genius came back to win against $15k claimers. A bit of back-class as well having broken his maiden in 2018 against NY-breds at Belmont in a MdSpWt event and a third place finish in a state-bred stakes event.
2nd: #9 Bayano, last two attempts in MdClm$10k company were both honest, picking up the pieces after fairly strong paces. There’s a bit of speed in this race as well, I like this one to make a late run.
3rd: #8 Tappin Honor, second back off the layoff, first on turf can be ignored. Last time on dirt was a second place finish against $25k claimers.
Race 7: OC$25k F&M 5 & ½F Turf
1st: #6 One Fat Kat, sticking with this chalk here, she’s just got so much more speed than anything else in this race and she has the ability to stay at this distance. Her two best career speed figures have come on the turf here at Laurel.
2nd: #1 Can the Queen, another speedball, her speed stayed in the two back event but didn’t last out which came at this level, despite setting almost identical fractions. Tells me she can’t maintain here speed at the slightly higher class level, and will be contested early today.
3rd: #3 Little Skiff, she’s definitely fast enough to win this one, things likely have to go her way a little bit.
OFF turf: 6, 2, 4
Race 8: Alw $55k 7F
1st: #2 Laki, I’ll caveat this with every time Laki and Lewisfield faced off last year I picked the wrong one. Lewisfield isn’t in this race, although it is a highly competitive field, but I believe this is one of the great betting opportunities of the year. Laki proved he is still at the top of his game when entered in an open stakes event over at Monmouth in his first race of the year and won earning a 100 Beyer. Not to mention he was the fifth betting choice in that race. Monmouth is a notoriously speed favoring track, for Laki to come from off the pace and pass shows his ability. 7 furlongs today should fit him excellently off that one, and he should love being back on his favorite track, 8 for 15 lifetime locally, with 3 seconds and 3 thirds. 5-2 would be a dream.
2nd: #7 Threes Over Deuces, another horse that deserves more stakes chances. He was second to a juiced up Firenze Fire in the G3 General George in February and was first in his return from the lockdown last out. He’ll definitely be ready. Has a very similar running style to Laki, do think Laki will out finish him, just a touch higher quality. No doubt worthy of exotics inclusion.
3rd: #4 Cordmaker, one of my all time favorite Maryland horses, he has the best Beyers in the field after Laki, routinely mid-to-high 90s figures and has won 6 times locally. I really don’t think this 7F distance is his best in this level of competition. He’s won at this distance but look at his stakes tries. Winner in the Jennings at a mile, the Johnson Memorial at 9F, the restricted stakes event at Del at a mile and 70, and was just a half length behind Tenfold at 10F in the G3 Pimlico Special. Really think connections ought to try a 9 or 10F event with this one.
Race 9: Clm $5k 6F
1st: #1 Dirtyfoot, going to try to beat the obvious chalk here, this one consistently in the 70s and even twice in the 80s Beyers, showed clear improvement from first to second out since the lockdown ended. Showed a lot of quality last year having broken his maiden for $40k and won a starter allowance event as well. Has speed along the rail and gets a slight bit of distance relief from the last out event.
2nd: #2 Big Boots, was making up ground in that same race as Dirtyfoot last out. Probably needed another half furlong not less distance, but should be similarly improving now third time back.
3rd: #3 Smart Step, the obvious chalk play, this one showed tremendous quality in 2018 and 2019 breaking his maiden in MdSpWt company and winning a first level allowance. Something appeared to be going wrong at the end of last year, they tried the turf first time out this year and he did 0 running, now drops to the absolute lowest level and in for a tag for the first time. Don’t care for the pattern at all.