Aqueduct Racing Analysis — Sunday, November 3, 2019, by Ivan Lopez

First weekend at the Big A with three stakes races on tap. 

  1. 6-5-2 – Skytap debuts for trainer Englehart, she was hammered at more than 23 times her stud’s fee. That tells me they see some talent in her. Good works in preparation and Irad has the mount, returning from taking over the Breeders Cup. Autonomous is a first time starter for Chad Brown, a daughter of Quality Road valued at $300,000. When Chad sends first starters to the main track, they are genetically well meant. Sengekontacket completes the trio, debut runner trained by Brad Cox, another one riding the victory wave with his two Breeders Cup wins. Don’t like the ones that have run already, so we will go with the new faces.
  2. 1-6-9 – Worth a Shot just broke his maiden and looked good in doing so, this is a pretty mediocre group so just by repeating he is the one to beat. Impazible Odds’ Speed figures are on the rise and bodes well that his connections elect to step up in class. Interesting at 6-1. Jo’s Bold Cat will be the beneficiary of a probable hot pace that can develop here. Will come from way off the pace to pick up the pieces.
  3. 7-2-8 – Aristocratic returns to the group where he won easily two races ago. Has the speed edge and is the first one to consider. Royal Asset returns to the dirt, which is definitely his preferred surface. The low percentage connections will keep his price attractive, and he belongs in this group. Deep Sea drops in class returning from a seven month layoff and the race has plenty of early foot, so his late run should be felt on the stretch.
  4. 1-6-8 – Somes Sound last race was good enough to win a lot of MSW’s, and a bullet in his last work signals he is ready to graduate. Long Term Thinking actually arrived first one time, but was disqualified. Chad puts blinkers on him, something you don’t see a lot from him. Alan’s Argument works nicely for his debut for trainer Danny Gargan, in a race in which there seems to be a separation between the first three candidates and the rest. 
  5. 9-5-10 – The two fillies that have been running against participants of the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf are the ones that should decide this race. I prefer Sparking Sky, hoping for a cleaner trip than last time. English Breeze has the edge in speed and post position, and her chances are as good as my top pick’s. Astoria Kitten was very impressive in breaking her maiden and Carmouche is especially effective with speedy horses. She can be long gone if they let her.  
  6. 8-9-5 – Very difficult race to come up with a winner. I went with old pro Dowse’s Beach, who will be ridden again by Irad Ortiz Jr., with whom he has his best efforts lately. The outside post will enable him to watch the speed duel closely. Le General is inexperienced, but has been facing netter horses, and now takes a cutback in distance. Luis Saez replaces Cancel, another positive. Fast Getaway has been knocking at the door in similar groups, and the pace should be of his liking. Jose Ortiz returns to his saddle. 
  7. 4-3-1 – Another very tough race to handicap. Ruby Bleu has run in three consecutive stakes races, and now drops to a group in which his credentials will be tested. At 12-1, it may be a good idea. Proven Reserves and Vincento are the only ones not being risked for a tag. In the case of Proven Reserves, he drops sharply from running in the Grade I Sword Dancer on the grass, and that alone will be enough to consider him a serious contender. Vincento should get a nice trip inside with Jose Ortiz, and although he hasn’t run that well at the Big A., I think the race sets up nicely for him.
  8. 6-4-7 – This race was supposed to be run at Belmont on closing day, but the cancellation forced the rescheduling. Lady Montdore is giving signs that she is sitting on a big race, and today may be the day. Joe Bravo looks to place her in a good early flight position and remember, this is a Grade II winner looking to reestablish herself after a tough 2019. Fool’s Gold has the recency factor for her and has proven to be a very good stayer, winning the Grade III Waya not long ago. Castellano goes back to her saddle and should be forwardly placed. Wegetthemunnys gives the impression that she will be a great stayer, and at 15-1, it can be inviting. Consider her on all your plays. 
  9.  10-7-8 – Ashaar’s debut was quite impressive, winning by open lengths and being geared down at the finish. Seems like this is very talented individual from he Mc Laughlin barn, who is much better second time out. Chase Tracker also won in his vow run at Parx for trainer Todd Pletcher Will be sitting in the garden spot and from there make one run. Meru is the speed of the event, but he has only run as far as six furlongs. This is a very significant increase in distance, but if he gets away with easy fractions, is dangerous.
  10. 2-9-8. A puzzle to end the afternoon. What to Blame has burned some money. But takes the cutback and Franco has been in a tear over the last two meetings at the Big A. Mr. Mike goes to his second after a considerable layoff and Castellano stays for the finale. Point of Humor completes the trio. 
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