If you followed along last week then you definitely made some money. We were able to cash the late pick 5 for over 4k and almost hit it cold. However, we do not win today’s games with yesterday’s home runs. Pay close attention to the track as it has been a golden rail the past week. Please follow me @jailmovemaster . I always post thoughts and pick changes based on scratches or track trends.
I always love talking horses and handicapping angles and always make sure to keep horseplayers informed with up to minute info @nyra. Good luck!
Race 1- 5-3-6
We start the card out with a chalky beginning. #5 Overheated looks like much the best. It is also worth noting that shippers have done well at this meet. It is a little concerning that Rice is dropping this horse (something I often bet against) and has had little early speed. If we have another bias track, look for #3 Way Over Budget to capitalize as the lone speed. However, it is hard to trust this horse as evident by only two show finishes at this bottom level in 6 chances. That and her gate issues make her tough to trust. If she can break clean, watch out. #6 Swift Vengence rounds out the field and deserves another chance if you throw out her last in the mud. 2-back she lost to a next out winner in Science Fiction but lost by 11 lengths that day.
Race 2- 2-1-4
This is the filly version of the race that was ran on Saturday. Saturday my top pick went wire to wire at 9/2. I will look for a similar scenario here but with a lesser price. In a race with next to 0 speed, Reylu has been paying attention to the track and has been very aggressive. I am hoping for the same tactics today and is the only horse with a win at this distance. #1 Caoimhe is the next logical horse to send from the rail. Even if he doesn’t send, she should be sitting the trip saving all the ground. #4- Princess Mikayah is a bad favorite but likely to hit the board in this short field.
Race 3- 4-2-5
#4 Mid Day Image will be my top pick at a price on the hopes that Eric Cancel can wire this field. Unless the Chad Brown firster can flash early speed, my top pick should be alone on the lead. It is also worth noting that my top pick is a NY bred running against open company…hmmm. Another plus in the cutback from the mile and eight distance. #2 Kumar will be a likely single on many tickets but will struggle if the track does not change since he has not shown any real early speed. It is also worth noting to trust Todd Pletcher 3yo maidens at your own risk. #5 Spectator Sport will likely attract some money because of the connections, but one has to believe that if this one of his “A” horses, that he would be debuting in Gulfstream.
Race 4- 4-1-5
Race 5- 1-2-5
#1- Miss Flame – One of the angles I have been tracking is called the 2nd off the jail move angle. This is when a horse goes off at a jail move; loses but the trainer still keeps the horse above the original claim price. So far it has been successful and this horse fits the criteria. Claimed for 30k, lost at 50k with a bad trip and Luzzi aboard. Now comes back for 40k and a huge upgrade in jockey. Add the rail and I think we have a shot to upset the favorite.
#2- Ok Honey- Many of us will be saying this on Thursday (Happy Valentine’s Day everyone) but is vulnerable on the gold rail track. If the first 4 races tell us the track is the same, it will be hard to trust this horse. On a fair track she is tough to beat.
#5- She Makes Me Smile- This might actually be my V-day week trifecta hunch play.
Race 6- 2-3-5
#2- Honey Graeme is my play of the day. The price won’t be great but looks to be a live single considering I project her on the lead, and is another 2nd off the jail move. If it is another gold rail day, this horse should be 3/5
Race 7- 1-4-5
Race 8- 1-3-5
#1- Frostie Anne- I need to try to give everyone one big bomb on this card. Why not Frostie Anne who should be on the lead and loves this track? The cutback in distance is right up this horses alley and Rudy is one to not want to push his horses hard in the AM; yet this horse comes into this race off a bullet 5F workout. She can shock at a price.
#3- Midnight Disguise- A repeat of her last makes her the horse to beat. On a fair track she is my top pick. Any track close to what we have seen of late and this horse will be in deep.