Looks like a great day for racing at Laurel! Follow or fade me on twitter @elmongooseflies
Race 1 – Clm 16000(16-14)N2L 6.5F Dirt
2 – I’d Like to Know. I’m no fan of backing a horse just after a maiden win, but his last race showed quick fractions that would most likely get the lead here. Added .5 furlong shouldn’t be a problem and if he’s not the favorite, I like this to be my value play.
6 Holy Saint. Has been competitive in the past at this level and hasn’t raced on ideal track conditions the past three starts. Cuts back in distance and broke his maiden here at Laurel, winning by 6.5 lengths.
3 – Hidden Talent. Claimed, gelded and entered for a higher claiming price. Gets a hot jockey, and cuts back to shortest distance of career.
Race 2 – Md 40000(40-35) 1 1/16M, Turf
5 – Prince Pere. Nice debut at Pimlico in a race at this level. I think the stretchout will be fine. Strong workouts since the last race shows that this horse is fit.
4 – Mo American. Been competitive at this level in several races, and at 15-1 morning line, will offer good value. Has run competitively on both turf and dirt, but turf is where the connections want him. Probably a good horse to use underneath on exactas and trifectas, but won’t take much to win this one.
7 – Bold Quest. Competitive in MSW races and now drops into the Maiden claiming ranks. Would like to have seen another workout, but recent races would put this horse right up there at the finish.
Also consider – 13 – Enjoy the Music, if he makes it in.
Race 3 – Md 40000 1M, Dirt
4 – Dew Dat. Second race, MSW to maiden drop, and two good workouts all point to improvement and my top choice in this race. Gets a jockey improvement with Carrasco to boot.
5 – Star of Shanghai. Value bet with a 15-1 ML, SoS almost got there in last race. Moves up in class, which is a good thing, but loses Carrasco to Dew Dat. I think the stretchout to a mile will be good.
6 – Danger Zone. Like Dew Dat, this is his second race with a MSW to maiden drop. Puts the blinkers on to encourage a better start this race.
Race 4 – OC 35k/N2X 5.5F, Turf
2. Chiefs Kingdom. In a race with a lot of contenders, I’ll go for value here with Chiefs Kingdom. Last race for CK showed a lot of speed before fading at the end; needed that race and expect a better showing today. A lot of these horses come from off the pace so if CK can get an easy lead, he can steal this.
4. Too Much Tip. Returns to the turf after past three races that were either taken off the turf or on synthetic. Just missed in last sprint and a return to her preferred surface may be just the answer to return to the winner’s circle.
6. Flyingontheground. Chased a fast pace to win last race. She’s been either winning or coming up second in a lot of races of late, so she’s a competitor. Has won 3 of 8 races on the turf here at Laurel.
Race 5 – Md 25000 1M, Dirt
3 – Back Charge. Can he hold on? After having leads of 8 and 10 lengths in his last two races, he ended up placing in those two races. Now moves up to face tougher maiden claimers and I’m thinking that this is the race he puts it together.
6 – Righteousness. Meet the shipper from Presque Isle Downs, who is moving from the MSW to maiden claiming rankings after just missing in his last two races. Ran in the lead last two races, but will need a different tactic with Back Charge taking the lead. Horse sold for $650K, so someone saw potential in him a while back. Maybe this drop will get him going on the right path.
1 – Call Me Later. Hasn’t been seen since January at Aqueduct, but in his last two races, flashed speed before fading. Time off has probably allowed this 3 yo to mature and work on his endurance. Good workout tab and worth a look if the price is right.
Longshot horse – 5.
Race 6 – OC25k/SAL25k 1M, Turf
8. Delancey’s Philly. Shipper from Monmouth returns to a more appropriate level in this OC race. She will be coming from off the pace and I think she’ll improve as she is reaching the top of her form cycle. Gets McCarthy on board, which is always a plus.
5. My Candy Girl. Just missed last race and I think it’s a positive sign that this horse moves up to an OC after that race. That sprint effort will help MCG to go long and I expect her to try and take this race wire-to-wire.
2. M.J.’s Lady. Looks to finally get her debut on the turf, she’s run in less ideal track conditions her last two races. Kind of a mystery how she’ll respond to turf, but I do like the Oct 2nd workout, which suggests she’s fit. Any improvement from last two races and she’s a top contender.
Race 7 – 62k/N1X, 6F, Dirt
3. Jaxon Traveler – Loved, LOVED, JT’s debut at Pimlico. Exits a key race as Lugamo won impressively his next time out. A single in horizontals.
7. Nobody Knew. Has won last two races by 6 lengths but steps up to stiffer competition here. If he can get the easy lead, he’ll be dangerous. I just don’t see that happening with JT, unless he stumbles.
1. Royal Number. With all these speed demons, here’s a horse who won from off the pace. Ran 6w in his debut to take the race, he should see plenty of speed to run into. Include in the bottom of your verticals, for I can see him picking up the pieces at the end.
Race 8. OC 35k/N2X 6F, Dirt.
4. The Cairo Kid. Winner of back-to-back races, he faces a tough challenge here as he is one of many who likes the lead. Improving Beyer numbers and efforts indicate a horse in top form. If he can get the easy lead, watch out.
1. Stroll Smokin. If one was inclined to hit the all button, this would be the race to do it. I can make a reasonable case for nearly every horse. This 5 yo gelding is in top shape and has shown he can win sitting off the pace. If he doesn’t get blocked down the stretch that is.
8. Buddy’s Run. This is my form cycle pick. In BR’s last cycle of races before the layoff, he exploded in his fifth race from the layoff to win by 3 lengths. In that race, he cut back to 7F to 6F. This race – fifth race of the cycle and cuts back from 6.5F to 6F. Races well at Laurel (has won 3 of 5) and returns here after a brief stint at Parx. Hoping for more than 5-1 ML. Fair warning – when I love horses like this, they tend to come in 2nd or 3rd.
Race 9. OC16k/SAL8k 5.5F, Turf
7. Bath and Tennis. Past two races she ran were on the dirt due to wet conditions, but now she’s back to her preferred turf surface. Versatile running style allows Rosales to either gun for the lead or sit off the pace. She’s won at this level before.
9. La Piu Bella. Speed of speed. I think she’ll be able to get out to the lead and frustrate the other need to lead horses. That effort could take a lot out of her though, allowing for some other off the pace horses to pick up the pieces. If she does get an easy lead though, look out.
3. Caterina One. Not a bad race she ran after the layoff and moves up in class to tackle stronger. Running style should have her sit nicely off the pace. Jockey Ruiz knows her well and has been riding her since January 2019, so he knows how to put her in the best position to win.