Week three of the Ellis Park summer meet kicks off today with a nine race card. Four of the nine races are on the grass today. The first few races are not my favorites, but I have some pretty strong opinions as the day goes on.
Race 1: 7,500 Maiden Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs: My Picks: 6-5-1
The opener is not the kind of race that I prefer to wager on. The big favorite is likely to be Bourbon Trail (1). He’s a $250,000 purchase who showed little on debut at Churchill against maiden special weight horses. He traveled to Belterra and ran a significantly better third, also while protected in maiden special weight company. He very well could win this race, as his competition isn’t fierce, but this is about as suspect of a drop as a horse could make. I’ll try Brother Aaron (6) for Romans in his 9th career try. His races this year have been lackluster, but his 2019 form wins easily here. I think his effort two back versus 10K maiden claimers at CD would likely be enough to beat these. Perfectly Wrote (5) debuts today an okay string of works. I’d expect him to be better on grass, but he won’t have to be much to factor in here.
Race 2: 30,000 Maiden Claiming, 5 ½ Furlongs Turf, My Picks: 6-3-4
This is another head scratching race, where value will be key. There are not a lot of turf pedigrees here and I get the feeling that many of the trainers are using this race as a spot to take a shot to see how their horse takes to the turf. Speed was the key in turf sprints last week on this course and Carson Reserve (6) is bred for speed and has some turf pedigree sprinkled in. Calhoun is capable of winning with first time starters. I’m hoping for Beschizza to be aggressive from the start. Abramax (3) had a decent effort here last year against maiden special weights. He showed zip and faded badly in his first start of 2020, and now drops and cuts back in distance. Glorious Tapizar (4) showed mild ability on debut three weeks ago against 7,500 maiden claimers while running on the dirt. His pedigree doesn’t scream turf, but I like the aggressive placement.
Race 3: 5,000 Claiming, NW3L or 3yo, 1 Mile, My Picks: 7-5-8
Despite the condition, no three year olds entered this race, so this is essentially a NW3L race for older horses, many of who that aren’t in love with winning. I’ll try Slick as a Pin (7), fresh of his maiden score at Belterra. With the exception of his debut on grass, he’s been competitive in his other four races, and his two dirt tries are easily his best efforts. Even though he’s moving up in class, he’s been more consistent than most in here. Colombiano (5) just missed against 7,500 NW3L claimers at Belterra last out, where the winner went on to win his next start. His last three tries on dirt have been good enough to be right in the thick of it with this group. Starlin (8) was third, two lengths behind Colombiano two back. Last out, his trip was less than ideal, but he did make a decent middle move into a slow pace. He might lose a bit of ground from the outside post, but he should have a more comfortable journey.
Race 4: 25,000 Claiming, 7 Furlongs, My Picks: 7-5-2
Degrom (7) makes the most sense in this spot to me. He’s been a popular mid-Atlantic claimer that has been keeping better company than most of these. He cuts back to 7 furlongs, which shouldn’t be a big issue as many of these might not want to go that far and he has run well in one turn mile races in the past. Nice Work (5) takes a big step up in class after beating restricted 10K claimers here three weeks ago. He looks to have regained his Southern California form and could be the lone speed again here, depending on what Prince Pierce (3) does. Pat Daddy (2) has some big efforts earlier in the year at Oaklawn. He’s a perfect 2 for 2 on this oval, but he is stretching out from his preferred six furlong trip.
Race 5: 15,000 Claiming, 1 Mile Turf: My Picks: 3-7-2
My best bet of the day is Strut The Ring (3). He’s a proven winner, winning 11 times in 30 career starts. He may be better on grass, winning 4 of 7 career tries on the lawn, so switching surfaces doesn’t concern me. I think from a pace perspective, he be close to the front if the pace is slow or come from behind if they go too quick. I like his form better than the two shorter prices. Messiah (7) was a beaten favorite here three weeks ago when he had a few issues at the start. If he can duplicate his effort at Indiana Grand two back, he’ll be there with these. Ernie Banks (2) may wake up a bit shifting back to turf at a price. He has the best early speed in this field, which was a valuable asset on this course last week.
Race 6: Maiden Special Weight, 2yoF, 6 Furlongs: My Picks: 8-9-7
Maiden two year fillies compete in the middle of the Pick 5, making this a tough sequence, as you probably need to think about going deep in this leg. Rock Out (8) is the only filly with a race under her belt. She debuted in the slop at Churchill, broke inward, and never really got involved. Lynch adds blinkers for start number two, while showing two decent works. I’d expect her to be ridden more aggressively here. Malibu Bird (9) appears to be the fastest of this group in the morning at least. She’s the morning line favorite off of two bullet 4F works at Keeneland. Girl Daddy (7) is the priciest purchase in the field, selling for $500,000 at the Keeneland September sale last year. Dale Romans’ horses generally need a start or two before they show their best efforts, but her works are good and I’m not sure of the depth in this field.
Race 7: 40,000 Optional Claiming/N$Y Allowance, F/M, 1 Mile: My Picks: 5-3-6
If the track is playing fair, I think New Roo (5) has a big shot here at a price. Most of her races have been on synthetic or turf, but her three dirt tries are solid. She finds a small field with four horses to her inside that want to be forwardly placed and rarely pass horses once they’re headed. Her only poor performances are in stakes company. Unless there appears to be a strong speed bias, I’ll try to single her. Rockin Ready (3) should run better than her last at Churchill. She’s now second off of a layoff, and should benefit from racing at almost two turns with the funky 1 mile chute at Ellis, instead of the one turn mile at Churchill. Tiz Ella (6) isn’t in great form right now, and also exits the same 1 mile race at Churchill that four of the six runners in here competed in last time. She should be able to get away cleaner and could pass horses late to hit the trifecta.
Race 8: Maiden Special Weight, F/M 1 Mile 1/16, Turf: My Picks: 14-15-3-1-13-9
Please note: I don’t make a habit of picking six horses in a race, but this is a tough race to figure here there is a lot of talent on the AE list, and those horses will need some help to get into the body of the field. Under the assumption that three AE’s in my top six are scratched, my picks would be 3-9-1. If any of them draw into the body of the field, the picks above are how I’d rank them.
Jim’s Bronze Star (14) tries a route of ground for the first time after sprinting in her first four tries. She is second off a layoff, and looked good closing at 9-1 last time out at Churchill. She has a lot of speed in her pedigree, but I think the mile and 1/16 is within her range. More Than Unusual (15) makes her second career start after closing well in her debut at Churchill. Brad Cox’s horses generally improve a lot in their second try, and the filly that beat her already came back to win. Violenza (3) was forwardly placed in a nine furlong maiden route at Churchill last out. She is second off the layoff and goes to a course that is kinder to early speed than the Churchill course. Graysonmachogal (1) is 30-1 on the morning line, but is an interesting exotics horse here. She has one turf start as a two year old, which wasn’t awful. That effort was the only effort where she showed speed. She adds blinkers, in hopes of being more aggressive early, and moves to a higher percentage barn. She has a better chance if the AE’s don’t draw in, but regardless, I will be using her if her price stays high. Three Flamingos (13) has been beaten by next out winners in her last three starts and at least six of the horses in her last three races have been next out winners. She has been battling in key races, but will likely have to overcome a tough post if she gets in. Longpants Required (9) exits the same race at Violenza. She keeps getting close, but hasn’t been able to break through yet. She looks more like an exotics factor.
Race 9: 10,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile and 1/16 Turf My Picks: 2-5-1
As long as the course is firm, I’m feeling confident in using Blakenbanker (2) on top and as a third single in the Pick 5, which feels very playable today. His last four have not been good, but two of those races came on a good course, and judging by the final times, both courses probably were closer to yielding. One of those races came in a sprint on synthetic, and his most recent a seven furlong sprint in the slop. All four of those races came against significantly better fields. If he can get close to the efforts he showed in his two turn races on firm turf, he should beat these. Fast Recovery (5) has improved gradually in his three career starts around this level in dirt races. His pedigree suggests that he’ll move up on the grass, and may offer some value while doing so. Disciple (1) drops again and returns to turf. The Corrales and Maker jockey/trainer combination are off to a decent start at this meet.
Unless there are weather changes or noticeable track biases, I plan to play the Pick 5, something like this:
Race 5: 3 / Race 6: ALL / Race 7: 5 / Race 8: 1, 3, 13, 14, 15 (Replace w/5, 8, 6 if SCR) / Race 9: 2