Race 1: 1-11-8 (Dirt: add 6-12)
Seven year old Canna Red (1) has gotten very comfortable on the turf recently, with her last 4 starts all in the money, and all with today’s jock Wes Hamilton aboard. She figures to sit a close-up trip. Cowboy’s Princess (11) changed tactics pretty dramatically in her last 2, coming from far off the pace sprinting to hit the board. Prado sticks, and will benefit from a swift pace. Same goes for Away to Me (8) who is probably not fast enough to win here absent a complete pace meltdown but will offer value in the bottom of the exotics.
Race 2: 1-11-7 (Dirt: add 2-4)
Tree Shaker (1) gets the inside post and his last 3 starts at this distance resulted in 2 wins and a 2nd. Both Speed Game (11) and Asset Allocation (7) were out of their element in last and both finished far back. They’re now getting back to their preferred surface where recent form puts them both right in the mix at potentially decent prices.
Race 3: 1-6-5
Tough to separate anyone in this field as reflected in the morning line. I’m going with Vincent Van Gogo (1), a three-year-old who takes a drop in class and shows an improving Beyer progression. He just missed 2nd in the Bert Allen and doesn’t meet anyone like River Deep here. Looking for an improved effort from Tiz He the One (6) who finally gets back to dirt where he won on debut last year (beating well-regarded local juveniles Dancing with Maude and Animal Quiet) and finished 3rd to Expedited Vision who came back and just missed in a turf sprint at Saratoga. He might be the longest shot on the board. I’ll just note that the last 2 wins for Victory Chimes (5), the morning line favorite, were romps on speed-favoring sloppy tracks, including his last race where he was a heavy favorite. Think you can make a case for anyone here.
Race 4: 10-7-1A (Dirt: add 1)
Assuming it stays on the turf, this is another competitive field that, even if the favorite wins, should yield a nice price. I don’t like the post with the short run into the first turn, but All I Karabout (10) excels at the claiming level and note the last 2 victories over softer ground. He’s 5/6 in the money at the distance and should be a square price. Throw out the 3 dirt tries over the winter and Silver Dagger (7) is as consistent as they come. McCarthy can have him forwardly-placed and he’s got a nice turn of foot. Rapo (1) was a little unfortunate in his latest, where he was bottled up and chose to go the overland route and the winner, who was right behind him, took advantage of the hole that opened on the inside to open up quickly. His last 2 efforts at this level make him a contender. This is Klesaris’ first horse he’s run a Laurel in a “first off the claim” situation in at least 5 years, but overall he has a positive ROI here with limited runners in the same time period.
Race 5: 2-9-5 (Dirt: add 6-7)
Wouldn’t be surprised if Captain Gaughen (2) goes off somewhere in the 3/5 range, and he’s tough to get by here. He’s won 3 of his last 4 including his most recent run which made him eligible for today’s condition, picks up McCarthy, and figures to sit just behind the speed, of which there seems to be plenty. Weather Report (9) had World of Trouble breathing down his neck in the Allied Forces while he was setting a sub-:22 first quarter. He’s broken alertly in his recent starts and there’s no one in here that can run with him, making him a dangerous gate-to-wire threat. American Sailor (5) might get a similar set-up to his last where he rallied for 2nd at 8/1.
Race 6: 6-10-12
Nosey Josy (6) has been game in both her efforts at the MSW level, now takes the drop in for a tag for the solid Dwyer/Castrenze combination (3/10 this year with a $3.88 ROI at Laurel). The winner from her debut has come back to win a first-level optional claimer. My Sweet Paynter (10) has the most starts in the field, but is the most accomplished on turf, having finished 2nd to O’Malley in August, with that one having come back to run 4th in the PG Johnson in Saratoga. Three of her turf Beyers are higher than any number any of her rivals have ever run on any surface. If she’s going to mix it up on the front end, post is a concern. If it comes off the turf, Dixie Do Good (12) ran 2nd in the slop at this level in last and was against the bias in her debut, making a late run to get the place.
Race 7: 3-4-6
Any Darn Day (3) drops to the lowest level of his career, and he’s shown speed at the MSW and the $40k levels. He was 4th to Vineyard, a nice Ollie Figgins three-year-old who was a close 3rd in an optional claimer next out. That race also featured 2 next-out winners, both at higher levels than this $16k affair. Calculated Thinkin (4) returns to Laurel where he was runner-up in his last 2 here with Beyers that would make him the favorite, although those were earned at the $10k level. Farrior shows confidence in Ghostly Affair (6), who stepped up to this level in September off a 7-month layoff and ran 2nd, and expected slight improvement puts her in the mix.
Race 8: 2-1-3
Staying inside here with the horses who figure to be controlling the pace. Dazzling Okie (2) gets an 8-pound weight advantage from some of his rivals in here and figures to stalk and pounce on No Hiding Place (1). There are a number of questions with the 2 outside horses who are likely to take money. I respect Rare Eagle and he’s in great form but he’s very pace-dependent and I’m not sure he gets swift fractions here. Battle Midway was claimed for $32k just 2 starts ago in NY and now is in for $5k. No thanks.
Race 9: 1-9-4
I thought that Olive Kat’s (1) debut was a terrific learning experience for her. She broke sharply but was quickly shuffled to the rear where she found herself behind horses. She was then very wide on the turn but stayed on for 4th, where no one passed the top 3 down the stretch. One of those 3 was Nightlife (9) who battled for the lead and faded late. The winner of that race, Enjay’s Brass, was nosed out at Keeneland in a OC/N2L event. One of my favorite angles is “second time starter, first time Lasix” which brings me to My Muchacha (4). Corrales is only 6/36 over the past 5 years with this angle (and 2/17 over the past 2 years) but he hits the board about 50% of the time and sports a positive ROI with this move.
Race 10: 6-3-1
By process of elimination I land on Queen to Checkmate (6), a 5-time winner who gets in under the open 3-year old condition and cuts the claiming price in half here. Choice Prospect (3) couldn’t get by her rival in the next stall in the most recent when that one was loose on an easy lead, but pace scenario changes here and this one can get a perfect trip. Saint Penny (1) is the inside speed, coming off 2-turns around the bullring at Charles Town, but her last 3 one-turn tries have left something to be desired.