It’s been raining at Laurel for the past few days, so check track conditions and scratches. Lots of challenging races (at least for me) to cap today. So, without further ado, here are my selections.
Race 1 – 1 1/16M OC25k/SAL25k
4 – Ski Bunny. Backing horses fresh off their maiden claiming victory is a good way to lose money …. but I like Ski Bunny’s last race. She’s the speed here and I’m looking for her to gun it on a sealed track and not look back.
6 – Lady Commissioner. See above about graduating maidens. Applies here but will come off the pace. If Ski Bunny falters, look for LC to pick up the pieces.
2 – Awesome Jazz. Gets hot jockey Sheldon Russell here and she didn’t look bad in last race off the turf. Will be coming from further back than Lady C, but Russell may employ a different tactic. At 15-1 worth a shot.
Race 2 – 1M, CLM 16000
3 – Proud Mandate. Has good Beyers leading up to this rae, and did well to rally for place last time off. Stretching out to one mile. Curious as to why connections haven’t tried Proud Mandate in a mile race since June 5, 2019. That gives me pause, but I think she’ll be fine here.
4 – Bird Tycoon. Longshot here and has been running against hot paces since returning from a 7 month layoff in June. Rosado rode BT (on turf) on August 27th with good results and I’m banking on a repeat performance here.
2 – Lake Chicot. First off the claim for Jamie Ness, gets Trevor McCarthy on board for this trip. LC seems to perform better going long, so stretching out from 6F to a mile is a good move. Ran well at Saratoga on August 6th and if she can get the lead, she may be too much for this field.
Race 3 – 7F, MSW40K
5 – Peace With Honor. Another race where I can argue for the majority of horses, I’ve landed on Peace with Honor as my top pick. Had trouble last race but overcame that to rally well. Maybe she learned something from that effort, as her prior efforts have all been take the lead efforts. If PWH can sit back off the pace, could run down Zola B in the end.
1 – Cool Stuff. Shipper from Monmouth has run exclusively in MSW races. Perhaps a change of scenario is what she needs to breakthrough. She’s been well supported in each of her four races, has placed 3 times, so maybe today’s the day?
3 – Zola B. In last race, jumped out to a 7 length lead at the .5 mile mark, only to see that whittle away at the end. Claimed by Magee after that race and they’re protecting their investment by entering here in a MSW. Putting an apprentice, Rebecca LaBarre, on her too for less weight. LaBarre’s instructions will be easy – go go go.
Race 4 – 6F Clm 12500.
9 – Rip Rap Riley. All longshots it turns out, so buyer beware. I choose RRR as my top pick because he’s returning to form after a six month layoff to start the year. What I liked about last race were the fast fractions RRR set before tiring at the end. I think the horse is nearing the top of its form cycle, so cutting down a furlong and dropping him into the claiming ranks will make RRR very competitive. Even gets a 5lb weight relief with Crispin on board.
5 – Nova Boy. Has a pretty good record on wet tracks and ran well on a wet surface here on July 23. Perez was on board for that ride and he’s on board here. He’s been involved in some allowance and stakes races, but was overmatched. This OC seems to be the right level.
7 – Odds On. Consistent runner that won an OC16K three races back. Horse is at the right level, has done well on a wet surface, and has a solid trainer in Kieron Magee behind him.
Race 5 – 5.5F MDN 25K
7 – Dew Dat. Races will in her first race, then in second race eased up after taking the lead at the ½ mile point. Let’s toss this race and focus on the Nov. 5th workout. With Trevor on board, I see an intent to win this race.
13 – Keepyourskateson. Won at this level in Delaware, but was DQ’d. Next race saw her at Laurel, where she disappointed in a Maiden 40K, but returns now to the MDN 25K ranks. She has the speed to do well here but starting from the 13 post means she’ll probably need to be closer to the front.
11 – Aprilness. Nice race on October 17th. Had the lead at the ½ mile pole before giving way. Expect her to learn from that race and challenge for the win.
Race 6 – 5.5F, OC50K
2 – Lewisfield. Enters into this race as the class of the field. It was only a year ago when he ran triple-digit Beyers. Against a soft field won’t need to be at his best to win this. Expect odds to end up much lower than th 4-5 ML.
4 – Reform School. Toss the October 9th race on turf and RS doesn’t look so bad. Gets Sheldon Russell on board and RS has been in good form as of late. He would need his best to beat Lewisfield though, but at only 3 years of age, RS still has room to improve.
6 – Lost In Limbo. Excellen finish last time for the OC35K level, LIL now steps up in class. Trained by Thomas Proctor, this race is not out of the realm for LIL but will need to improve to beat Lewisfield.
Race 7 7F – MDN 40K
7 – Hello Hot Rod. Just missed in debut as he rallied from 8.5 lengths to lose by a neck. Stretches out to 7F for this effort and this looks like a good spot for him to graduate.
2- Dr. Ferber. Nice effort for his first start at Delaware but what caught my eye was the fast fractions early on. He tired out at the end of the race, but it’s good to see that based on that effort, they are moving him up in class. With any improvement, Dr. Ferber can be right there.
10 – Woodchuck. Backed in his first race at the MSW ranks, now drops to a maiden claiming race and moves to a new track. Gets Cruz on board (a good sign) and I like the 5 furlong workout on Nov. 5th. Dangerous.
Race 8 6F, OC 16K/SAL8K
5- Nomo Ron. Excellent win last time out, he chased down the leaders to win handily. Returns to the same level and race here and there’s a lot of reasons to argue why he will repeat.
7- Sound Off. Been racing very well of late – at Delaware. Has a closing style that will allow him to pick off runners at the end. Good workout on November 7th demonstrates this horse is fit.
9- Phantom Ro. Last two races on a wet track haven’t been great, which gives me pause. Otherwise, PR has been racing very strong. The question is, has his off races been due to the track condition or for some other reason. Willing to forgive those races, for it seems that PR is at the top of his cycle.
Race 9 1 1/16M, Maiden 10K
5 – Hinting. Started well but then was steadied into the turn last race. In fact, last two races have had issues. Drops now to lowest claiming price of career in hopes of turning things around. I foresee improvement in this race and Hinting is worth a shot at what I hope will be a decent price.
7 – Stephanopoulos. Like Hinting, had trouble in last effort, though he was only 1.5 lengths out of first at the turn. Drops for a claiming price and has the speed to take the lead and advantage of this weak field.
2 – Elusive Motion. Good race last time out, EM has been knocking on the door at the MDN 10K level. Gets Perez on board and moves back to the dirt. Well the 10th try be the charm?