Gulfstream Park – January 18, 2019
Twitter: @bmata85
Gulfstream Park Daily Gallop Selections: 19/69 (28%, $2.54)
*Does not include off the turf races where turf selections were made
Best Bet: Race 7 – 10 Bad Little Beast – 8/1 ML
Race 1 – 3YO MSW $50k – Turf – 5 F
Selections: 1-2-12
The Sunshine Millions card kicks off with a full field of three year old maidens sprinting on the turf. The two main contenders, 1 Union Colonel and 2 Bloodprof draw side by side on the inside. With his experience, I give the slight lean to 1 Union Colonel. His return effort on the synthetic at Woodbine was a credible one, setting fast early fractions and holding on for a decent 2nd place finish. The winner of that race came back to put in back to back 2nd place finishes against winners. While he does cut back to 5 F, he has a decent effort at Churchill at a similar distance and features a pedigree that indicates he should handle the sharper distance. He’s a half to Amapola who was a stakes winning sprinter and while the Dam was 0/1 on turf, she managed a win on dirt at 5 F. The $190k purchase 2 Bloodprof goes first out for Gilberto Zerpa who has strong numbers with turf debuters — 3 for 11 (27%, $7.98) with turf first time starters. Stormy Atlantic is a solid turf sire, winning with 15% of turf starters, well above average. While the dam was only 1 for 8 on turf, she’s a half to two other turf winners. Given the lack of turf form, in the field he’s a solid win candidate even as a first time starter. 12 Strong Ending hasn’t taken money (47-1 & 15-1) or ran particularly well (losing by 6 & 11 length) in either start, however, his switch to turf last out showed small signs of improvement. He raced near the back of the pack and started to make up ground late, passing a majority of the field. While he’s a bit of a stretch as a win candidate, he could hit the board at a big price.
Race 2 – 4+ CLM $8k – N2L – Dirt 1 M
Selections: 5-4-3
If handicapping the race based strictly on the last race performance, I’d likely land on 3 El Zeus. He put in a solid effort, racing up near fast fractions and actually took the lead in the stretch before getting run down late. However, such is the life for a horse who is 1 for 46 lifetime. At a short price, I’ll be looking to beat on the win end. I’ve ultimately settled on two horses who figure to be running late. While 5 Steadily had pace to close into last out, he put in a big run from the rear of the pack. With the stretch out to 1 M, he should be more forwardly placed & less reliant on a fast fractions. His career best speed figure came four back at today’s mile distance. 4 Beast Mode took a step forward first off the claim and is liable to take another in only his 4th career start. Similarly to 5 Steadily, he’s a bit pace dependent, but as discussed, 3 El Zeus is not the hardest pace setter to pass.
Race 3 – 3YO MCL $25k – Dirt – 1 M
Selections: 5-3-2
The 3rd features a group of maiden claimers devoid of much speed– whoever makes the lead has a chance to take this group gate to wire. For that reason, I’ve landed on 5 Dry Land. While he’s making his first career start on dirt & is likely to go off the favorite, his improved speed on the stretch out in his last start is hard to ignore. Despite setting fast fractions, he was still able to hold on for an okay 4th place finish. Furthermore, Attard is a respectable 2 for 10 (20%, 50% ITM, $1.18) with runners going synthetic to dirt. 3 L’Cristabal showed vast improvement 2nd off the layoff when closing into moderate fractions last out. Now he stretches out and given the Oxbox/Tapit mare pedigree, he should relish the added distance. 2 Excalibur has mostly been running against tougher $50k maiden claiming fields. His race two back at today’s $25k level was much more competitive.
Race 4 – 3YO MSW $50k – Turf – 1 M
Selections: 5-4-2
There’s no doubt that 4 Complex System is the horse to beat after taking typical Chad Brown money in debut and finishing a solid 2nd. He made a wide sweeping move on a turf course that was favoring runners making inside moves. Chad Brown is obviously strong with 2nd time starters on the turf — 25% with a $1.60 ROI. With that said, I’m looking to take a small shot against with 5 Juulstone. This son of American Pharaoh has been disappointing on the dirt, finishing no better than 5th in three career starts. I’m hoping he’s been waiting for an opportunity to get to the turf. American Pharaoh has been a strong turf influence thus far, winning with nearly 19% of his turf starters. The Dam was a stakes winner who finished her career 10 for 19 on the turf. As a son of American Pharaoh, it’s understandable why the connections gave him multiple chances on the dirt. Shug has solid numbers with this move, hitting with 15% ($1.86 ROI) of maidens routers going dirt to turf. 2 Leading West is a logical contender after his first career turf attempt. He was bet heavily that day and made a wide, sustained move around the turn ultimately just missing the money. A repeat of that effort would make him a player in this spot.
Race 5 – 4+ FL AOC $44 – N2x/$16k – Dirt – 1 M
Selections: 4-5-1
While the 5th is listed as an allowance optional claimer, it’s assembled a group that resembles more of a lower level claiming field. 4 Nothins Free looks loose on the lead and has been in excellent form with back to back victories in gate to wire fashion. Despite the suspension of Nagib Aboughaida, the barn has not missed a beat with Victor Barboza. 5 Dizzy is listed as the morning line favorite but figures to be a worthy bet against with only one victory and ten 2nd and 3rd place finishes. His figures do fit but given the reliance on pace and the lack of early speed signed on, he figures only for a minor placing. 1 Assume Control has some races that fit with this group but is going out for a barn that has been cold at the meet, failing to find the winners circle with 15 starters.
Race 6 – 3YO MSW $50k – Turf – 1 M
Selections: 5-4-7
Race 6 goes through morning line favorite 5 Eagerly, who has run well in each turf start for Todd Pletcher. When last seen at Aqueduct, he sat a comfortable trip behind a long shot pace setter, just missing the money. While he’s a short priced favorite who’s had a few chances at level, there just isn’t much else to like. 4 Always Misbehaving makes some sense off the surface switch for Danny Gargan. Into Mischief hits with 14% of his turf runners, but the dam was 0 for 5 on the grass. Gargan is a strong 3 for 11 (27%, $3.86) going dirt to turf at the maiden special weight level. While he’ll need to improve from his dirt races, those have come against some of the better three year olds in the country in Three Technique and Shoplifted. Similar to 5 Eagerly, 7 More Chances has put in solid efforts in all four career starts, finishing second in three of four starts. Mike Matz has okay numbers off trainer switches on turf winning with 2 of 15 starters (13%, $1.65).
Race 7 – 3YO FL AOC $44 – N1x/$16k – Dirt – 6 F
Selections: 10-5-8
Any analysis of the 8th race must focus on the abundance of speed signed on. Horses like 2 Silvery Enough, 3 Gran Casique, 7 Fast Loaded and 8 Alfie Solomons all have gate to wire victories on their PPs. Given that amount of speed, I’m going to lean on horses coming from off the pace. Of those with that style, I prefer 10 Bad Little Beast. He needs to improve on the surface and trainer switch but Servis is a robust 4 for 7 (57%, 86%, $3.85) off trainer switches and a 90-150 layoff. The pedigree supports the switch as he’s a half to six dirt winner & the dam was 10 for 31 sprinting on the dirt. 5 With Verve also figures to benefit from the fast early fractions. I’m tossing his race last out as he was facing significantly tougher and going a mile. Based on his performances, he seems to be more of a closing sprinter. His race two back was an excellent example of his ability to close when sprinting. He should receive an even better setup in today’s affair. 8 Alfie Simmons may be the speed of the speed on the switch from turf to dirt. There is some dirt pedigree throughout the family, including the incredibly fast World of Trouble who could win on both surfaces. Abreu is a solid 18% going turf to dirt.
Race 8 – Sunshine Millions Filly and Mare Turf Stakes – Turf – 1 1/16 M
Selections: 7-1-10
While 7 Starship Jubilee is listed at 3-5 on the morning line, she figures to be closer to 1-9 as the gates open. The back to back the winner of this race just looks too tough to beat. She’s just been running against significantly better horses — and beating them. From a trip standpoint, she’s versatile enough to adapt to a variety of pace situations and has had success on the Gulfstream track (5: 2-1-1) and at the distance (7: 3-1-2). The only possible chance at upset could come if 1 Beautiful Lover or 10 Una Luna can somehow wire the field. However, I’m skeptical of that. Barring something unforeseen, 7 Starship Jubilee looks to be as much of a free square as a horse can look on paper.
Race 9 – Sunshine Millions Sprint Stakes $100k – Dirt – 6 F
Selections: 7-6-1
Race 10 – Sunshine Millions Turf Stakes (FL) $150k – Turf – 1 1/16 M
Selections: 3-9-2
The Sunshine Millions Turf is led by a pair of Mark Casse runners who figure to dominate the wagering. 9 March to the Arch has been facing some of the best turf horses in the country, including Breeders Cup entrants Got Stormy and Diamond Oops. He returns off a slight break, but Mark Casse has excellent numbers off similar breaks when targeting a stake — 6 for 19 (32%, 53%, $1.11) off 90-120 in stakes races. 2 Curlin’s Honor is in excellent form hitting the board in seven consecutive races, a number of those graded stakes. His effort last out in the Artie Schiller Stakes at Aqueduct was a quality effort, but did have the benefit of a perfect trip & beautiful ride. While I have no major knocks on either, the pair figures to take plenty of money. I’ve settled on 3 Scraps as an alternative at what should be a much more generous price. However, given the recent performance of the Saffie Joseph barn, it’s unlikely he’ll meet the 10-1 morning line. Outside of the trainer switch, 3 Scraps merits consideration based on his prior form alone. He ran well two back in a small four horse field, sitting off a slow pace and making a strong move for the victory. Last out, he raced three to four wide around both turns and really had no opportunity to close into a slow pace on a Gulfstream turf course that was kind to speed.
Race 11 – Sunshine Millions Classic Stakes (FL) $200k – Dirt – 1 ⅛ M
Selections: 3-7-6
The Sunshine Million Classic Stakes goes off as the feature for Florida breds & features a competitive group, evident by six of the seven runners being listed between 5-2 and 6-1 on the morning line. Given the competitiveness of the group, I’ve landed on one of the longer prices on the board, 3 Squeezadios. While he wheels back on only seven days rest, he’s shown vast improvement in his last two starts. He was forwardly placed near a fast pace and put in a commendable effort against a quality horse in Endorsed who came from significantly off the pace. While it’s concerning that Teresa Pompay is 0 for 7 bringing horses back in 5 to 10 days, it’s a small sample size for a horse who should be one of the bigger prices in the field. 7 Super Dude switches to the Mike Maker barn who has average numbers off dirt trainer switches — 9 for 54 (17%, $1.05 ROI). While it appears he’s making a big jump in class, from claiming to a stakes, those came against open claimers and now he’ll face state breds. While his race last out was a near non-effort, he gets the switch to the Maker barn and has plenty of back races that would be competitive here. The morning line favorite 6 Red Crescent is an extremely logical player coming off a decent 4th place finish in the Grade 3 Harlan’s Holiday Stakes. In that spot he raced up near a solid pace set by Derby & Preakness entrant Bodexpress, ultimately making the first move into the pace and being run down late by horses who sat farther off. However, at a short price, he’s a worthy bet against as a horse who has never gone 1 ⅛ in 42 career starts.
Race 12 – 4+ CLM $16k – Turf – 1 1/16 M
Selections: 7-9-3
While the nightcap draws a full field of claimers, it does figure to have a few legitimate short priced horses. 7 Bondurant does come off a 17 and ¾ length defeat, but I’m going to look to toss that race as it was his first attempt on the synthetic surface & might just prefer the turf. His victory two back was a product of a perfect trip, with fast fractions up front and a ground saving trip. However, that race came against significantly better horses in New York and despite the ideal trip, he still put in an effort that would be good enough to win here. 9 Bold Daddy hasn’t won since April 2018 but put in two credible efforts before the extended layoff. Jason Servis has excellent number off layoffs, hitting at 35% off 180 to 300 on turf, including 2 for 7 with all 7 hitting the board in routes (29%, 100% ITM, $3.77). 3 Gosilently hasn’t been able to ration his speed appropriately in recent starts but does have races throughout his PPs that would be competitive in this spot. The slight class relief from tougher state bred claiming and allowance races in New York should be beneficial as well. He figures to make the lead from his inside three post and while the turf course has seemed to play fair in the last few days it never hurts to be on the lead against cheaper claiming horses.