[Welcome to the tenth edition of the second season of the Kentucky Derby Futures Index which is proudly presented by The Daily Gallop! For those of you that are new to this feature or perhaps need a bit of refreshing, please refer back to the first edition of this feature that debuted on Friday, November 8th on the site for some background information on why this article was created, how it functions, what the determining criteria are and what the overall goal for this piece is going forward. Now many interesting developments have taken place since the last regular edition of this piece way back at the beginning of the month, many of them related to the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic engulfing this country and the world. I’ll touch on what has gone on in the last three weeks briefly (as last week I did put forth a special edition of this feature that addressed a number of these topics) before moving on to discuss the results of the series of prep races that have been run in that time span culminating with the results of the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby that was run on March 21st.
So let’s begin with the news that came out last week from Churchill Downs as they announced that they had taken the unprecedented steps of moving the Kentucky Derby from May 2nd to September 5th in light of the current situation in Kentucky. This announcement has had massive rippling effects throughout the industry, many of which have yet to be seen as in the case of exactly when the other two legs of the Triple Crown will now be run and what stakes races run later this spring and summer will be fortunate enough to receive Derby points awarding status. In other major news, several Kentucky Derby prep races were canceled outright when their host tracks elected to suspend racing operations immediately; these included the Grade 3 Sunland Derby, the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes and the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes. This weekend Meydan Racecourse announced that their signature racing day, the Dubai World Cup, would no longer be run due to safety concerns regarding the Covid-19 outbreak in that country and as a result the Group 2 UAE Derby, their major points awarding prep race for the Kentucky Derby, would not be run. Additionally, NYRA suspended all racing operations after a number of backstretch workers tested positive for coronavirus at Belmont Park and thus the running of the Grade 2 Wood Memorial on April 4th appears to be in jeopardy. Thus that potentially leaves just three Derby prep races to be run by May 2nd: the Grade 1 Florida Derby to be run on March 28th at Gulfstream Park, the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby to be run at Santa Anita Park on April 4th and the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby to be run on its new date of May 2nd (the first and last of these races were forced to sustain significant purse reductions of $250,000 as the casinos that help prop up these tracks have since been closed by gubernatorial mandates in each of these states as a preventative social distancing measure). It should be noted that as of this writing it is not entirely clear that, given the evolving situation in this country and in those aforementioned states, whether or not those prep races will even be run. If such is the case, then this feature will go into hiatus mode sometime afterwards, although I will likely put forth another article or two highlighting the contenders on each of the BUY and SELL Lists. It is my hope that several more of these prep races will be run so we can continue to watch these amazing equine athletes improve and mature as time goes on but obviously the safety and well-being of all the incredible men and women that are involved in the daily operations of caring for, training and racing these horses is an utmost priority and if keeping them safe means suspending all racing in this country for a period of time then that is completely understandable.
With that being said, let’s move on to going over each of the prep races that have been run over the past three weeks. I will just briefly touch on a couple of them as there were several performances in these races that were less than impressive and I honestly am not enthused about those winners at all. On March 7th, there were three crucial 50 point Kentucky Derby prep races that were run. They were the one mile Grade 3 Gotham Stakes run at Aqueduct and won by John Servis’ Mischievous Alex, a son of Into Mischief. His 118 TimeForm speed rating is a rather high figure but I do need to caution that this is a horse that won a one turn race run at a mile distance and has yet to contest a race longer than eight furlongs. Then there was the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby run at a mile and sixteenth and won by massive longshot King Guillermo, a son of Uncle Mo who is trained by Juan Avila and was making his first start of 2020 and first graded stakes effort in that race. He earned a 119 speed rating for his surprising performance but to be honest it was a race in which there were very few horses with prior stakes experience, many of the other speed types failed to break alertly and contest for the lead and once King Guillermo seized command of the lead heading into the top of the lane, no other rivals bothered to mount a challenge to try and deny him the victory. After the announcement by his connections that they would elect to forego any other prep races and were content to train their colt straight up to the original May 2nd date of the Derby, this horse became an immediate throw out in my book. Now that the Derby has been pushed back five months, it remains to be seen what route the connections will take towards the Derby as the two tracks in Florida are essentially done with offering major races for three year olds during the summer months. Finally, on March 7th there was the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes run at Santa Anita Park which was billed as a showdown between two of Bob Baffert’s best three year olds in Authentic and Thousand Words. Well Authentic, a son of Into Mischief, looked mighty impressive in victory that day as he took the field in gate to wire fashion eventually crossing the wire 2 ¼ lengths ahead of his nearest rival all the while earning a scorching 120 TimeForm speed rating. While Authentic stamped himself as a legitimate Derby contender with that victory it was the horse that ran second, John Shirreffs’ Honor A.P., who was not only making his stakes debut but also his 2020 debut following a massive layoff that really caught my eye. The 115 speed rating that he earned was a bit on the low side but after re-watching that race a couple of times, this horse gave me the indication that he is going to continue to mature and improve as the year goes on and he should relish the added distances of these bigger prep races. Thousand Words on the other hand surprisingly did not run well after having put forth very game efforts in each of his two prior prep races and thus it appears that he no longer is one of Baffert’s top contenders for the Derby.
On March 14th there was just one Derby prep, but it was a major one. It was the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes run at a mile and a sixteenth over a sloppy track at Oaklawn Park. Following his victory in the Grade 2 San Vincente Stakes run at seven furlongs at Santa Anita in early April, Bob Baffert had zeroed in on this particular race as the goal for Nadal, a son of Blame, in which he would make his Derby Trail debut. Although the field for this race was less than exemplary (outside of the multiple graded stakes winner Silver Prospector who really does not care for wet tracks at Oaklawn Park it seems), Nadal did look rather extraordinary in taking the field for this race in gate to wire fashion (a growing trend not only for Bob Baffert trainees in these prep races but also for a number of recent prep winners). Nadal also put forth a 120 TimeForm speed rating for his efforts (which actually was only a slight improvement from the number he earned from his prior stakes victory) but in doing so he stamped himself as a bona fide Derby contender who, given his pedigree, really should not have any issues continuing to stretch out in distance (and he also has answered the question as to whether or not he can handle a sloppy track). Finally, this past weekend it appeared to be déjà vu all over again for trainer Brad Cox and Florent Geroux as yet another runner from Cox’s barn stepped up to answer the call (this time in Grade 2 Risen Star winner Mr Monomoy’s absence). In this instance it was Wells Bayou, a son of Lookin at Lucky, who was able to benefit immensely by a superb ride from Geroux (who aggressively maneuvered his charge out to the front of the field, never looked back and was fortunate that none of the other projected early speed types in the race mounted more than token pace pressure throughout the entirety of the race). This victory came in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby run for the first time at a distance of a mile and three sixteenths, the only prep race in the United States that forces its contenders to go that far. Although Wells Bayou’s speed rating of a 115 is a bit on the light side, it still was a very nice performance for this young colt who gave every indication that he should be a worthy Kentucky Derby contender in September.
Before revealing this week’s BUY, SELL and ON THE VERGE Lists, there is a rather important topic that I believe needs to be discussed. Given the uncertain nature of this year’s Kentucky Derby Trail and not knowing both if the remaining prep races will even be run as well as which stakes races to be run later in the spring and summer will be given Derby points awarding status, I have had to make a major modification to the criteria for which horses are eligible to be included on these lists. It is also completely unknown as to exactly how many points will be necessary to make it into the starting gates in September; if I had to make an educated guess given that there likely will be between five to eight more prep races run later this year leading up to the Derby (leaning towards the higher end of that figure especially if any of the three remaining 100 point preps are canceled), then I would suspect upwards of 60 points might be needed to make the field of 20 for the Kentucky Derby. That being said, as of right now and going forward, only the current Top 20 horses on the 2020 Kentucky Derby leaderboard (viewable here: https://www.kentuckyderby.com/horses/leaderboard) will be eligible for inclusion on any of these lists. While that might seem a bit unfair to some, especially considering that there a several horses below the Top 20 (or not even on the leaderboard at the moment due to injury) that may be able to make the Derby field given its new running date, it is far too difficult to look into the future and presume which of these horses will even be around in September. Therefore, I have elected to take the approach that if the Derby were still being run on May 2nd (although we know it won’t be) which of the currently eligible horses have the best chance at hitting the board or even winning. This method allows me to deal in certainties rather try and speculate so far ahead into the late summer when we all know that there is the real possibility that some of these horses on the current leaderboard will no longer even be considered as contenders for the Derby by their connections for one reason or another. I do not have a crystal ball so I cannot look ahead into the future and say for certain that a particular horse or group of horses will even be running or eligible at that time; however, I can look at the facts that in front of me at this very moment and with the stipulation still in effect that any for any horse to be eligible to be considered on any of these lists they must have run in a points awarding Derby prep race this year, that is the criteria that I will use to guide my decisions from here on out. With that being said, it is now time to reveal the BUY and SELL Lists for this week’s edition of the Kentucky Derby Futures Index.]
BUY
1. (Last Week: 1) Tiz the Law (Constitution-Tiznow; Barclay Tagg; Sackatoga Stable; 4-3-0-1; 1st in the Champagne Stakes (G1), 3rd in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2), and 1st in Holy Bull Stakes (G3); 22 Kentucky Derby Points)
2. (Last Week: Not Ranked) Nadal (Blame-Pulpit; Bob Baffert; George Bolton, Arthur Hoyeau, Barry Lipman, and Mark Mathiesen; 3-3-0-0; 1st in the Rebel Stakes (G2); 50 Kentucky Derby Points)
3. (Last Week: Not Ranked) Authentic (Into Mischief-Mr. Greeley; Bob Baffert; SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing LLC, Madaket Stables LLC, Frederick Hertrich III, John D Fielding, and Golconda Stables; 3-3-0-0; 1st in the Sham Stakes (G3), and 1st in the San Felipe Stakes (G2); 60 Kentucky Derby Points)
4. (Last Week: Not Ranked) Wells Bayou (Lookin at Lucky-Hard Spun; Brad Cox; Clint Gasaway, Lance Gasaway, Madaket Stables LLC, and Wonder Stables; 5-3-1-0; 2nd in the Southwest Stakes (G3) and 1st in the Louisiana Derby (G2); 104 Kentucky Derby Points)
5. (Last Week: 4) Ete Indien (Summer Front-Mizzen Mast; Patrick Biancone; Linda Shanahan, Sanford Bacon, Dream With Me Stable, Horse France America, D P Racing LLC, and Patrick L Biancone Racing LLC; 5-3-1-0; 2nd in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) and 1st in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2); 54 Kentucky Derby Points)
6. (Last Week: Not Ranked) Honor A.P. (Honor Code-Wild Rush; John Shirreffs; C R K Stable LLC; 3-1-2-0; 2nd in the San Felipe Stakes (G2); 20 Kentucky Derby Points)
ON THE VERGE
Enforceable (Tapit-Dixie Union; Mark Casse; John C. Oxley; 9-2-2-2; 3rd in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1), 4th in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2),1st in the Lecomte Stakes (G3), 2nd in the 1st Division of the Risen Star Stakes (G2), and 5th in the Louisiana Derby (G2); 33 Kentucky Derby Points)
Modernist (Uncle Mo-Bernardini; Bill Mott; Pam and Martin Wygod; 5-2-0-2; 1st in the 2nd Division of the Risen Star Stakes (G2), and 3rd in the Louisiana Derby (G2); 70 Kentucky Derby Points)
SELL
1. (Last Week: Not Ranked) King Guillermo (Uncle Mo-Dixieland Band; Juan Avila; Victoria’s Ranch; 4-2-0-1; 1st in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2); 50 Kentucky Derby Points)
2. (Last Week: Not Ranked) Storm the Court (Court Vision-Tejano Run; Peter Eurton; Exline-Border Racing, David Bernsen, Susanna Wilson, and Dan Hudock; 6-2-0-2; DNF in the Del Mar Futurity* (G1), 3rd in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1), 1st in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), and 3rd in the San Felipe Stakes (G3); 32 Kentucky Derby Points)
3. (Last Week: Not Ranked) Mischevious Alex (Into Mischief-Speightstown; John Servis; Cash is King LLC and LC Racing; 7-4-1-1; 1st in the Gotham Stakes (G3); 50 Kentucky Derby Points)
4. (Last Week: Not Ranked) Excession (Union Rags-Tapit; Steve Asmussen; Calumet Farm; 9-1-1-3; 7th in the Lecomte Stakes (G3), 8th in the 2nd Division of the Risen Star Stakes (G2), and 2nd in the Rebel Stakes (G2); 20 Kentucky Derby Points)
5. (Last Week: 5th on the BUY List) Thousand Words (Pioneerof the Nile-Pomeroy; Bob Baffert; Albaugh Family Stables LLC and Spendthrift Farm LLC; 4-3-0-0; 1st in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2), 1st in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3), and 4th in the San Felipe Stakes (G2); 25 Kentucky Derby Points)
6. (Last Week: Not Ranked) Ny Traffic (Cross Traffic-Graeme Hall; Saffie Joseph Jr; John Fanelli, Cash is King LLC, LC Racing, and Paul Braverman; 7-2-1-2; 3rd in the 2nd Division of the Risen Star Stakes (G2), and 2nd in the Louisiana Derby (G2); 50 Kentucky Derby Points)