For those of you looking for the regular Week 10 edition of this feature, fear not as that will be published either on Friday March 20th or Saturday March 21st. However, with regards to this article, the topics I’m going to discuss are going to be fairly different than the normal subject matter of the regular Kentucky Derby Futures Index (KDFI). In light of the numerous developments that have occurred within the sport of horse racing within the past week and a half, I felt it necessary to put out a special edition of the KDFI to convey to you my thoughts on some of those issues. Now I will not be discussing the rather heated subject matter of the recent indictments that were handed down by the state of New York and carried out by the FBI against 29 named suspects in a massive cheating/doping scandal that has since rocked the sport and prompted renewed calls by many from within that now is finally the time for horse racing to clean up its act. I simply am far too opinionated against the likes of Jason Servis and Jorge Navarro to be able to present the facts of this matter to you in any sort of fashion that would be relatively unbiased. Furthermore, I am not nearly educated enough on the subject matter at hand to be able to present an accurate representation as to what exactly occurred and what steps the industry can take to begin the process of removing more cheaters like those two aforementioned trainers from the sport (I would highly suggest speaking with some of the trainers, veterinarians, and media personalities within the sport that have been staunch advocates of reforming horse racing if you would like a more intelligent opinion on the matter). Rather, I would like to speak to you regarding the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic that is engulfing the world right now and how it has impacted horse racing here in the United States, not only with regards to the Kentucky Derby but also its effect on the often overlooked day to day operations of racing at tracks across the country.
The most exciting two minutes in sports, the Run for the Roses, the first Saturday in September? Wait a minute, something doesn’t sound right there. But yes, all three of those epithets describing the 146th Running of the Kentucky Derby are correct. On the morning of Tuesday, March 17th, the CEO of Churchill Downs Inc, Bill Carstanjen, announced that in light of recent events (namely the unchecked spread of Covid-19 throughout the United States) that the Kentucky Derby would not be run on the first Saturday in May for the first time since 1945 and instead would be pushed back to September 5th, the first Saturday in September, in hopes that the situation in this country has normalized by that point in time. Now the exact reason for this postponement of the Derby is likely unknown to the majority of people except for a select few individuals, though I suspect that Churchill Downs was unwilling to take the risk of running the Kentucky Derby, arguably one of the greatest events in all of sports, on May 2nd for two main reasons. First, it would seem quite callous to endanger the lives of numerous track employees, backstretch workers, grooms, jockeys, trainers, and owners to force them to come down to Louisville to race if the country was still involved in a life or death struggle with fighting the current Covid-19 pandemic. Second, racing in front of empty stands would likely put some financial strain on CDI as admittedly the Kentucky Oaks and Derby are the two most profitable days for Churchill Downs Inc over the course of an entire racing season and the company did not seem willing to showcase their two biggest days of racing with no spectators present. But let’s not dwell too much on this matter. Instead, let’s take a look at the events that likely forced CDI’s hand and caused this postponement.
In the week leading up to this announcement by CDI, the other major Kentucky track, Keeneland Race Course, took the unprecedented step in declaring that initially the first half of their prestigious Spring Meet, which included the Kentucky Derby and Oaks prep races: the Blue Grass Stakes and the Ashland Stakes, was going to be run sans spectators with the hope that racing fans could attend the second half of the meet; additionally, they declared that they were instituting enhanced sanitary and screening measures. A few days later, Sunland Park in New Mexico which hosts another Kentucky Derby prep race, the Sunland Derby, announced that they were suspending their racing season and that their prep race would not be run. Then as the threat of Covid-19 began looming larger within the state of Kentucky, the governor, Andy Beshear, announced that certain restrictions were being put in an effort to help stem the spread of this scourge. Finally, on March 15th and 16th, Keeneland took the extraordinary step of canceling their entire Spring Meet outright as they simply could not guarantee the safety of any fans and racing personnel that were coming onto the grounds; there were additional other safeguards that were imposed regarding restrictions to entry, stabling of horses, etc (and you’re more than welcome to go search out those press releases from Keeneland to read over the exact details that were laid out). The cancelation of the Keeneland Spring Meet, coupled with the threat of suspension of racing at several of the other large tracks across the country, likely was the straw that broke the camel’s back and forced Churchill Downs to act. After the announcement regarding the postponement of the Kentucky Derby, horse racing Twitter (arguably the fastest source of news regarding all major events within the industry) was abuzz with a multitude of questions being bandied about. These questions included: what happens now to the rest of the Triple Crown, what is going to happen to the rest of the remaining prep races that were scheduled to be run in the next several weeks, and how exactly does moving the Derby to September affect the stakes schedule and running of major races later in the summer? Let me try and address these issues to the best of my knowledge beginning with the matter of the Triple Crown.
Shortly after CDI made it’s Derby announcement, the Maryland Jockey Club which runs both Laurel Park and Pimlico Race Course, put out a bulletin suggesting that they were open to running the Preakness Stakes, traditionally the second leg of the Triple Crown, after the Derby in mid September. Additionally, NYRA, the racing body that governs Aqueduct, Belmont and Saratoga put forth a press release indicating that they were exploring all options with regards to when the Belmont Stakes, the traditional third leg of the Triple Crown, might be run. Thus at the moment, it appears that the 146th Running of the Kentucky Derby will be on September 5th unless the situation regarding this virus outbreak is still fluid at that time; furthermore, the Preakness may be run two weeks after the Derby as per usual, but as to when the Belmont will be run is up in the air right now. Now there are several ways to rationalize what might be the best way to preserve the Triple Crown. If the races were to be run in order, with the Belmont Stakes being run in early October, the race could theoretically serve as a nice prep for the Breeders’ Cup Classic to be run in the beginning of November at Keeneland; though this strategy would likely cause the field for the Jockey Club Gold Cup (a race usually run in October at Belmont in which three year olds get their first chance to run against their older peers) to be depleted. Furthermore, it is highly unlikely that trainers would be keen on having their three year olds contest four major races (if they elected to pursue all legs of the Triple Crown followed by the BCC) within a nine week span as that simply could be too much racing for their horses. Another idea that is currently being suggested is to allow the Belmont to be run on its original date of June 6th and allow it to kickoff the Triple Crown series; however, this scheduling date only works if the current outbreak has been knocked into submission by then, which seems quite unlikely. A third suggestion could be to move the Belmont Stakes back to the last weekend of racing at Belmont Park in July, before the New York horsemen move upstate to Saratoga; this idea has a better chance of being successful as conservative estimates have given a timeline of either July or August for the United States being able to effectively contain the current Covid-19 outbreak. I’m honestly not quite sure what will occur as given that there are multiple bodies governing horse racing across numerous jurisdictions and at the moment each one is only invested in preserving their own self-interests, it could lead to some rather bizarre decisions being made.
Now let’s turn our attention to the remaining slate of major points awarding Derby prep races left for this spring. At the moment, all that is known is that Fair Grounds Race Course in New Orleans is committed to running the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby this Saturday, the first of the 100-40-20-10 points awarding prep races. Following that, things seem to be up in the air. Meydan Racecourse in Dubai has committed to running the Group 2 UAE Derby on March 28th sans spectators while Gulfstream Park appears to be prepared to run the Grade 1 Florida Derby on that same day. But after that, I’m not quite sure what will occur especially if the number of cases of individuals infected with Covid-19 continue to grow, especially in states like California and New York, which would put the prep races scheduled for April 4th, the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby and the Grade 2 Wood Memorial, in danger of being canceled. Finally, the officials at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Arkansas have indicated that they are entertaining the idea of pushing back the running of their signature race, the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, from its original date of April 11th to May 2nd (which serves as the traditional end to their racing season). This could potentially allow them to attract a massive field of entrants looking to punch their ticket into the Kentucky Derby five months down the road.
Churchill Downs has said that given the postponement of the Derby and the cancellation of several major prep races (the Sunland Derby, the Blue Grass Stakes, and the Lexington Stakes), they are exploring options that would create temporary points awarding status to a number of stakes races held throughout the summer so as horses could continue to train up to the new September date. In doing so, this might push the qualifying cutoff to its highest level ever as even horses with 50 points that were counting on running in the Derby on May might need to race once or twice more to even make it into the field on September 5th. After some discussion with a number of individuals within the industry, these races were suggested as being the most likely candidates to receive Derby points awarding status: the Grade 1 Haskell Stakes, the Grade 1 Travers Stakes, the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes* (might not be run considering its scheduled to be run on May 9th), the Grade 3 Indiana Derby, the Grade 3 Ohio Derby, the Grade 3 Affirmed Stakes, the Grade 3 West Virginia Derby, the Grade 3 Matt Winn Stakes* (now on May 30th so may not be run), and a potential stakes race created by Del Mar for their July meet. The most contentious race on this list would be the Travers stakes which is traditionally run at the end of August at Saratoga but may end up being rescheduled to be run at the beginning of August to avoid coming into conflict with and competing for entrants with the Derby itself. If I had to make an educated guess, I would wager that the races run at the major tracks (i.e. Belmont, Churchill Downs, Del Mar, Monmouth, Santa Anita and Saratoga) are bestowed with points awarding status whereas the minor Midwest Derbies are left on the outside looking in.
What does this all mean then? Well this decision by Churchill Downs is without a doubt going to have a major impact on this year’s crop of three year olds. Many of the horses that are being viewed as top contenders for the Derby at this moment might have faded from memory by the time the Derby rolls around on September 5th. Moreover, it is entirely possible that we have yet to see the 2020 Kentucky Derby runner even race in a prep race yet as that horse could be one of those late blooming three year olds that bursts onto the racing scene in the mid to late summer like Arrogate did a few years back. It’s also even possible that horses that have been temporarily removed from the Derby Trail due to injury could come roaring back and in better shape than before too. The new Derby date also introduces some challenges for trainers as now they have to figure out how to keep their horses fresh and be able to fire in the Derby four months later than normal. Furthermore, they need to determine exactly which races to target going forward after these last several prep races which could require a tricky balancing act of choosing the right race (or races) that fits their trainee and allows them to continue to have a chance to accrue points, all the while being mindful of not overworking these horses such that they’re completely exhausted by September. Perhaps the most logical course of action for many trainers would be to race their horses once in these upcoming prep races over the next couple of weeks, pause to evaluate their charge’s abilities and chances after that race, and then if they believe that their particular three year old is up to the challenge and can keep on maturing and improving as the year progresses, select two or three more prep races to contest (provided of course racing is still occurring in this country) before running them in the Derby.
There is one final topic that I would like to address before concluding this article and it deals with the overall financial impact that this virus outbreak has been, is, and will be causing on the very people that make this industry function on a day to day basis. For those tracks that have elected to race without fans (of which the vast majority in the country have decided to do so), the lack of spectators is likely causing a major strain on the financials for these tracks and does not provide much incentive for them to continue racing if their revenue stream (through admissions, parking, concessions, and most importantly wagering) suddenly disappears and thus they are forced to rely upon proceeds from ADW wagering in order to have any sort of income stream whatsoever (provided the tracks aren’t also receiving funding from their own casinos or the state). The situation is much more dire for those few tracks that have elected to suspend racing altogether as now there simply is zero money flowing into their coffers and the effects are much more profound on the individuals that work at those tracks. Let’s start with the tracks that are continuing to race but without fans. While the risk of a Covid-19 outbreak occurring at these establishments has been mitigated to an extent, there still is the possibility that an outbreak can occur and this is causing some owners and trainers to be leery of racing their horses at these tracks and additionally jockeys are beginning to become tentative about moving about the country to ride in different states in fear of contracting the virus whilst traveling. Thus with less horses being run, it causes tracks to lessen the number of races on each card which in turn means fewer opportunities for these owners and trainers to enter their horses to have a chance at winning races which in turn means reduced income coming in to these various stables which in turn affects the livelihoods of all those that work for these outfits from the trainer and vet all the way down to the grooms and stable hands. Many of these people are wholly dependent upon this industry for providing for their families and the loss of a daily or weekly paycheck would be devastating.
As for the tracks that have suspended racing operations entirely, I’m not sure that the officials making those decisions are or were fully aware of the impact that they had on the multitude of people employed by or working at these establishments. For example, some of my close friends are track photographers here in Chicago and down in Florida and they are wholly dependent upon the track being open and racing being conducted in order to earn a paycheck as this is their primary source of income. The same goes for many of the people that work at these tracks running concessions or taking admissions or the gate crews or even the track announcers and media personalities. They are all beholden to these various establishments for a guaranteed paycheck week after week and without that source of income their lives would be extremely different. The same also applies to the exercise riders, the hot walkers, the grooms and other individuals running the day to day operations of barns across the country. They need the tracks to remain open to be able to continue to make their living whilst training and caring for these magnificent animals. With most tracks now closed to spectators it is quite likely that all of these aforementioned individuals lives have been affected, especially with regards to their financials. However, it is when the tracks elect to close (completely suspend racing), this is when these decisions have the potential to decimate not only the lives of the affected individuals employed by or working at the track but also the lives of their families.
As of the writing of this article, there are hundreds if not thousands of small and medium sized businesses that have been forced to close due to this virus outbreak that are clamoring for financial relief (in addition to the major industries here in this country that are demanding bailouts). Additionally, there are ongoing proposals in Congress right now that would result in relief checks being sent to every adult in the United States in the coming weeks to provide a bit of assistance during these troubling times. However, I have yet to see any proposals being put forth by the major tracks in this country or by the owners or trainers of these horses that we love to watch race that would provide any sort of financial assistance towards those individuals that have been or will be most impacted by the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the industry. Perhaps now in the darkest of times, it would greatly behoove the sport to come together as a whole and reach out to protect those that are most vulnerable to being financially affected by this crisis because we need to realize that without those individuals that are essential to the smooth day to day operations of racing across the country, this sport would cease to exist and this nation would be far worse off if that were to occur.