2019 Kentucky Derby Futures Index
Week 4
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
[This Tuesday marks the fourth edition of the Kentucky Derby Futures Index feature on The Daily Gallop. At this point the premise of the article should be fairly clear to any of its readers, but for those individuals that are new to this piece, please refer back to the introduction sections found in the Week 1 & 2 editions that describe the overall purpose of this feature as well as the determining criteria that has been used when making the selections for both the BUY and SELL Lists. Following this weekend’s running of the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park, there were some notable new additions to both of the lists. So without further ado, let’s dive on in and see which runners have cracked the Top 5 on this week’s Futures Index BUY and SELL Lists.]
BUY
1 (1). War of Will: (War Front-Sadler’s Wells; Mark Casse; Gary Barber; 7-3-1-1; 1st in the Lecomte Stakes (G3), and 1st in the Risen Star Stakes (G2); 60 Kentucky Derby points)
War of Will once again remains the top fixture on the Buy List as thus far in 2019 he has done nothing wrong. He looked ultra-impressive when winning his first two graded stakes appearances on dirt by taking both the Lecomte and Risen Star in easy fashion. He now looks to complete the Fair Grounds trifecta as he will contest the nine furlong Louisiana Derby (G2) this Saturday against ten other rivals. His primary running style of a pace-presser/pace-stalker should be of great benefit to him as there does not appear to be a bevy of other early speed type runners signed on for the race and over the past ten editions of the race, five of the last ten winners were horses possessing a pace-pressing or tracking running style. Additionally, the betting favorite has also won that race in five of the last ten years, which bodes well for War of Will as he will likely be installed as the Morning Line favorite. War of Will had a nice sharp four furlong breeze last Friday in :47.60 as his final tune-up in preparation for the Louisiana Derby and by all accounts, his connections were quite pleased with the form he displayed as he looks quite fit going into Saturday. The 110 TimeForm speed ratings he paired up in his two stakes wins at the Fair Grounds are a bit slow compared to those recent speed figures from many of the other main Derby contenders and as such he will definitely need to move forward to be considered truly competitive in the Kentucky Derby. As War of Will already possesses the highest amount of Kentucky Derby points with 60, rest assured that barring any serious setbacks or injuries between now and May 4th, he will be in the starting gates at Churchill Downs on Derby Day.
2 (2). Mucho Gusto: (Mucho Macho Man-Giant’s Causeway; Bob Baffert; Michael Lund Peterson; 4-3-1-0; 1st in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3); 14 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
After slightly disappointing performances by stablemates Game Winner and Improbable in their 2019 debuts in Saturday’s Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, Mucho Gusto gets the slight nod here as his most recent effort way back in the beginning of February in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes over a sloppy track at Santa Anita was quite impressive. Mucho Gusto managed to rate for the first time and took to the wet track with ease, something that offspring of Mucho Macho Man had not previously shown an affinity for doing, and as such if Mucho Gusto can display a similar running style in this Sunday’s Sunland Derby (G3) then he certainly has an excellent chance of securing a victory against a solid field of nine other rivals. His most recent TimeForm speed rating of 111 is a bit slow compared to many of the speed figures the other main Derby contenders have put forth in the past couple of weeks, but so long as this colt continues to improve and mature, he stands a very good chance of making it into the starting gates on May 4th. He handily worked six furlongs on Monday morning over the much maligned Santa Anita surface in 1:13.60 in what appeared to be his final tightening work before Sunday’s race and has looked very fit in both of his most recent works. As Mucho Gusto does not have nearly the same amount of hype surrounding him as stablemates Game Winner and Improbable do, there is the definite possibility that he could be potentially be a bit overlooked on Derby Day.
3 (3). Bourbon War: (Tapit-Artie Schiller; Mark Hennig; Bourbon Lane Stable & Lake Star Stable; 4-2-1-0; 2nd in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2); 21 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
This beautifully bred son of Tapit made quite an impression in his 2019 stakes debut for trainer Mark Hennig and his connections after finishing a disappointing fourth last December in a very slow edition of the Remsen (G2). Bourbon War displayed a new facet to his running abilities as after breaking well from the gates, he was guided towards the rail for a ground saving trip by Irad Ortiz whilst chasing a swift initial pace. As the field turned for home, Bourbon War unleashed a devastating late closing kick and nearly caught Code of Honor at the wire. For his efforts he earned a career best 115 TimeForm speed rating and demonstrated that he is not particularly pace dependent as previously he had raced much closer to slower initial paces and still finished well. It appears quite likely that this colt will relish going even longer as the year progresses as he was rapidly gaining on Code of Honor as the wire neared and in fact easily went past him in the gallop out. Bourbon War will likely get a rematch against Code of Honor in the Florida Derby (G1) at the end of the month at Gulfstream Park and provided he can at the very least finish in the money, he will accrue enough points to make it into the field of 20 for the Kentucky Derby in May.
4 (NR). Game Winner: (Candy Ride-A.P. Indy; Bob Baffert; Gary and Mary West; 5-4-1-0; 2nd in the Rebel Stakes (G2); 45 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
It was only a matter of time before the 2018 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner made an appearance on this list, although events that have been transpiring at Santa Anita over the past couple of months certainly delayed the 2019 debut for this colt. Game Winner’s second place effort in the second division of the Rebel at Oaklawn on Saturday wasn’t terrible for a colt that hadn’t raced in 134 days and likely was not fully cranked up for that effort. He received an excellent stalking trip well back of the leaders throughout the initial stages of the race and gradually moved up when urged to do so by Rosario. However, it appeared that he may have been a second or so too slow to respond when Rosario asked him to take off after and catch rival Omaha Beach down the stretch and as a result was unable to get past him and lost by a nose at the wire after dueling in the deep stretch. The 118 TimeForm speed rating he earned for that performance was quite solid and ranks amongst the highest last out speed figures for all of the Derby prep winners thus far this year. Going forward he appears that he will relish the additional distance as he looked quite strong in his gallop out. Immediately following his effort in the Rebel, Baffert indicated that he will point Game Winner towards the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 6th (presuming the track is in good order by then). Game Winner’s pace-stalking running style should be of great benefit to him going forward as he has consistently demonstrated that he can close quite effectively provided he has a moderate to fast pace to chase after (a scenario he likely will encounter in the Derby in May). With 45 points already accrued towards the Derby, Game Winner will without a doubt be in the starting gates on May 4th and even if he is one of the top three or four betting choices on Derby Day, he may still offer some value as this year’s edition of the Run for the Roses appears to be wide open and the post time favorite could be as high as 4-1 or 5-1 given the amount of parity amongst this year’s three year old class.
5 (NR). Omaha Beach: (War Front-Seeking the Gold; Richard Mandella; Fox Hill Farms; 6-2-3-1; 1st in the Rebel Stakes (G2); 38 Kentucky Derby points)
For a colt that had just broken his maiden in the start prior to his Rebel appearance, Omaha Beach certainly showed that he belonged in that race as he gave a game account of himself throughout with veteran jockey Mike Smith aboard. After initially rating just behind the early leaders, Omaha Beach seized command of the race just after the half mile marker, though he almost immediately felt pressure from Game Winner who had moved up as well. Turning for home, Omaha Beach had built a two length lead on the Baffert trainee but then Game Winner took off and rocketed after the son of War Front. Omaha Beach was quite impressive in repelling Game Winner’s attempts to get past him in the deep stretch and narrowly edged out Game Winner by a nose at the wire. The 119 TimeForm speed rating that he earned was a slight improvement over the 118 speed figure he had posted from his last out maiden win over a sloppy seven furlongs at Santa Anita, but more importantly demonstrated that his maiden effort was no fluke and that he should be considered a serious contender going forward. Omaha Beach’s gallop out immediately following the conclusion of the Rebel was by all accounts very impressive and the hybrid pace-pressing/pace-stalking running style he has displayed thus far should serve him well going forward. Mandella has not indicated any firm plans going forward for his charge but it would not be surprising to see him run Omaha Beach either in the Santa Anita Derby at the beginning of next month or return him to Oaklawn for the Arkansas Derby on April 13th.
NR (NR). Improbable: (City Zip-A.P. Indy; Bob Baffert; WinStar Farm LLC, China Horse Club International Ltd, Starlight Racing; 4-3-1-0; 2nd in the Rebel Stakes (G2); 25 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
If the connections backing Improbable sound familiar, they ought to be as this was nearly the same team that shared ownership of Justify throughout his Triple Crown campaign last year. However, let’s make one thing clear Improbable is not Justify. His 2019 debut on Saturday in the first division of the Rebel did not go at all according to plan. For a colt that had looked brilliant in his morning works leading up to the race and seemed to be incredibly fit, he did not appear to be quite ready on Saturday. Whether it was poor decision making by jockey Drayden Van Dyke, or possibly the far outside post position, or even the fact that he might have been a bit too keen after breaking from the gates, Improbable had a brutal trip throughout the entirety of the race. He ran in the three to four path through both turns and it was likely due to running that wide that ended up costing him the race. He initially attempted to rate just behind the early leaders but then appeared quite keen to move up and challenge his rivals on the front end before finally slingshotting to lead as the field entered the stretch. He appeared to have drawn clear of his rivals before Long Range Toddy came roaring down the stretch and nipped him at the wire to win by a head. Improbable earned a 117 TimeForm speed rating for that performance and although Baffert had indicated that he will return the colt to Oaklawn next month to contest the Arkansas Derby (G1), Improbable is going to need to show more in his works leading up to the race that he is fully prepared for that effort and can handle nine furlongs. Additionally, he needs to finish at least third or better in order to be considered truly safe to make the field for the Kentucky Derby; however, there is no doubt that he will continue to improve under Baffert’s tutelage and with a more veteran rider aboard will get a much better trip next time out.
SELL
1 (1). Knicks Go: (Paynter-Outflanker; Ben Colebrook; KRA Stud Farm; 7-2-1-1; NO BOARD FINISHES IN 2019; 18 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
At what point exactly does this experiment come to its right and proper end? After a brilliant 2018 campaign in which Knicks Go burst into the national spotlight after scoring a massive upset in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and then finishing a game second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), it has all come crashing down in 2019 for Knicks Go and his connections. This colt has looked completely out of sorts in his two stakes efforts thus far this year and there have not been any encouraging signs that he is going to rebound out of this funk any time soon. At this point it has become quite apparent that Knicks Go was simply a flash-in-the-pan precocious two year old who now as a three year old is unable to keep pace with his rivals. The connections need to do the right thing and give him some well-deserved time off to recover before considering his next start which hopefully will not come until at least the summer.
2 (2). Plus Que Parfait: (Point of Entry-Awesome Again; Brendan Walsh; Imperial Racing LLC; 6-1-1-2; NO BOARD FINISHES IN 2019; 4 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
2019 has been a massive disappointment for backers of this ridgling after he finished a game second to Signalman in last November’s Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). Thus far he has finished fifth in the Lecomte and then 13th in the Risen Star. His speed figures are trending in the wrong direction and perhaps a layoff or a change of scenery might be in order for Plus Que Parfait in order to get him back into proper form. Plus Que Parfait remains in training for Walsh and has recently posted two solid five furlong works over the training track at Palm Meadows; moreover, he is currently under consideration for contesting the UAE Derby (G2) at Meydan in Dubai at the end of the month. Whether or not he actually runs in that race remains to be seen.
3 (4) Well Defined: (With Distinction-Medaglia d’Oro; Kathleen O’Connell; Stonehedge LLC; 7-3-1-1; 1st in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3); 10 Kentucky Derby points)
The 114 TimeForm speed rating that Well Defined earned in his Sam F Davis effort was leaps and bounds his fastest performance in quite a long time but, Well Defined bounced badly in his Tampa Bay Derby (G2) effort. Unlike in his prior effort in the Sam F Davis, Well Defined was unable to get out to an easy uncontested early lead and instead was forced to rate from just off of the pace. Whilst he remained in contention late into the race, it was evident that he had begun to fade down the stretch. He eventually finished eighth, six and quarter lengths behind the eventual winner Tacitus. Well Defined proved that his Sam F Davis effort was merely an anomaly, a result of his being spotted a large uncontested lead, and that when it came time to square off against other rivals that displayed similar running styles, he simply was not on the same level as his peers. Following his effort in the Tampa Bay Derby, the connections have not indicated any future plans for this gelding; however, that most recent performance makes him incredibly hard to endorse going forward.
4 (5) Instagrand: (Into Mischief-Lawyer Ron; Jerry Hollendorfer; OXO Equine LLC; 3-2-0-1; 3rd in the Gotham Stakes (G3); 10 Kentucky Derby points)
Regardless of how controversial this decision may be, Instagrand remains on this list for the time being. On the one hand, for what it’s worth after coming into a race not fully cranked up following a 210 day layoff (which sounds somewhat odd), Instagrand ran marginally well enough that there still is hope that he can improve and rebound from that performance going forward. On the other hand, following the conclusion of the Gotham it became quite clear that owner Larry Best’s gambit (despite the protests and reluctant acceptance by Hall of Fame trainer Jerry Hollendorfer) did not pay off as now the connections will likely have to scramble to find another race for Instagrand to run in if they still have any Kentucky Derby aspirations. In his prior two efforts, last year, Instagrand had displayed a pace-setting running style but it had been noted that he was not a particularly speed crazy two year old. On Saturday, Instagrand sat off the pace early on, before moving up to try and engage with Much Better in the final turn. While he was able to eventually draw alongside his rival, he simply could not withstand the additional challenge from Mind Control and appeared to fade slightly in the deep stretch and was thus fortunate to beat out Much Better by a nose for third. The 118 TimeForm speed rating that he earned for his performance in the Gotham (likely influenced by the insanely fast early pace) was a career best for Instagrand but it ultimately remains to be seen whether or not this colt wants to even race beyond one mile. Perhaps he is best suited as a sprinter as his career progresses? Regardless, Instagrand will need to absolutely dominate his rivals in his next start before he can find his way off of this list. As of this writing it is fairly certain that the connections are hoping to find a soft landing spot for Instagrand’s next race as the Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct, Blue Grass Stakes (G2) at Keeneland and Santa Anita Derby (G1) at Santa Anita are all under consideration for this colt and it is likely that Hollendorfer will run him in whichever field appears to be the weakest.
5 (NR) Gunmetal Gray: (Exchange Rate-Include; Jerry Hollendorfer; Hollendorfer LLC, Pearl Racing, and West Point Thoroughbreds; 7-2-2-0; 1st in the Sham Stakes (G3), 2nd in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) and 4th in the Rebel Stakes (G2); 22 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
At this point in his career, Gunmetal Gray has established himself as a bona-fide deep closer that basically needs a virtual pace collapse up front in order to have any chance on being able to win a race. Unfortunately for him, going forward, that sort of running style historically has not done well in the Kentucky Derby and such a pace scenario normally does not occur in the Derby. Gunmetal Gray should have had an ideal setup on Saturday in the second division of the Rebel as there was plenty of pace up front early on and the initial fractions were fairly swift, which should have led to this colt being able to unleash his closing kick to blow past his rivals in the stretch. Unfortunately, that did not happen. Gunmetal Gray was well back early on, trailing the entire field by a noticeable margin and when it finally came time to turn on the afterburners and rocket down the stretch past the rest of the field, that closing kick was conspicuously absent and thus the best Gunmetal Gray could do was finish fourth, well behind the eventual winner Omaha Beach. The speed figures that this son of Exchange Rate has posted over his past three stakes performances pale in comparison to those of the main Derby contenders and in fact on a whole are quite slow for a three year old colt at this time of year. Going forward, Hollendorfer has not indicated what his plans are for Gunmetal Gray, though he would need to at the very least hit the board in his next start in a prep race to have any chance of making into the starting gates for the Derby.