Keeneland
October 10th, 2019
A nice 10 race card on tap today. The weather should be decent. Let’s try to build the bankroll heading towards the weekend.
Race 1
#7 Served Cold
The most experienced runner in the field today, making career start number 53. She spent the summer at Saratoga and faced tougher competition than she’ll face today. Trainer Robertino Diodoro is putting her in a logical spot today. She should get a good stalking trip in this race just off the speed. David Cohen will ride, and he’s successful when riding for Diodoro.
#2 Myositis Mystique
I’m just going to draw a line through her last race. She really didn’t run at all, but her races before that in the spring were pretty good efforts. She does have a win over this race track, and she gets a nice jockey upgrade to Joel Rosario today. I would definitely be looking for her to be coming from off the pace. She’s probably the best closer in here, and that fits great with Rosario.
#5 Northern Connect
I’m not sure what changed, but her last two races have been quite impressive for this level. She’s coming off two blowout wins at Ellis Park. The competition is a little stiffer today, though. James Graham has ridden her to those last two victories, and he’s back aboard today. Rick Hiles owns and trains this one.
Race 2
#10 My Sweet Baboo
This horse is second off the layoff today, and trainer Mike Maker is about 25% with that angle. This filly ran decently well last time at Kentucky Downs finishing 4th in a field of 12. Her form in California as a two year old was pretty solid last year, so if she continues to round back into form, she should be a major player in here. She has some tactical speed, so she should be forwardly placed, and I don’t think the post position will hurt her too much. Jose Ortiz will have the mount.
#3 Keepme in Thegame
I think this horse has always been thought to have some potential. She hasn’t quite shown it all yet. But today they are putting blinkers on, and Shug McGaughey is about 22% with first time blinkers. This horse has shown no early speed at all so far in three career starts, but she has finished pretty well. So hopefully the blinkers will get her more engaged in the early stages of the race. John Velazquez will be at Keeneland and ride this one.
#4 Cloche
This mare is the old lady of the group, being the only non 3YO in this race. She’s 0 for 9 in her career, but her last race was a pretty decent improvement. She finished second at Arlington on Million Day behind a nice next out winner. So maybe the 10th time will be the charm for this 5YO. I think she’ll sit a midpack trip, and hopefully be finishing at the end. Joe Rocco Jr will be in the irons.
Race 3
#5 Blunt Force
All three dirt starts this year have been decent for this horse. Broke the maiden pretty nicely two back, and ran a good second last time out at this level. She looks to be somewhat versatile. If the pace is slow, she can lay close. If the pace is fast, she can wait toward the back and finish. A couple horses in here are cross entered, so this might end up being a very small field. Either way, I like her chances. Jesus Castanon rides.
#1 Ready Orb Not
Big class dropper here. This filly has never been in for a tag before. She’s been freshened up since July, and they are also removing the blinkers. Trainer Phil Simms is just 4% with layoff types, so this girl might need a race. She doesn’t have any speed, so I’d expect her to be last in the early stages. Corey Lanerie will be the pilot.
Race 4
#12 Sweet Addison
Pretty big drop in class for this filly today. She’s faced much tougher competition than she will be now. She does have enough to be forwardly placed, so with a good break, I don’t think this outside post will be too much of an issue. She’s been the beaten favorite three straight times, but I think she gets a field she can beat here. Tyler Gaffalione will ride. He connects at 25% with trainer Brendan Walsh.
#7 She’s So Bossy
Her three races this year aren’t too bad, and are probably good enough to make her a contender in here. She was up on the pace last time out going 7.5F, and now she cuts back to 6F. I think the cutback will help her, and she should still be forwardly placed. Adam Beschizza will be aboard for trainer Tim Glyshaw.
#5 Mesange
This girl has been off since April when she last raced at Tampa Bay Downs. She hasn’t shown a whole lot yet, but maybe she’ll be sharp off the layoff. All of her dirt tries before have been against maiden special weight company, so she might find this field to be a bit easier. Ben Colebrook is a respectable 13% off the layoff. Declan Carroll will be in the irons.
Race 5
#5 Thanks Be
This 3YO filly is making her North American debut here today. These are high class connections with Mike Dubb owning and Chad Brown training. We all know Chad excels with these types. This girl last raced in a stakes race at the famous Royal Ascot meeting. I don’t see a lot of other very talented runners in here, so she is a very likely winner. Joel Rosario will ride.
#1 Tuned
Similar to my top pick in here, this is a 3YO filly making her stateside debut. She’s trained by Graham Motion and owned by Al Shaqab, so those are also top notch connections. Motion is also good with these types of horses. Her prior three races have all been in France, and I assume she’s been facing tougher competition. I do prefer the #5 horse in this race, but I could definitely see the race being decided by these two horses. Javier Castellano will be aboard for this one.
#7 Zip Drive
I guess I would give this girl the best chance of the “local” horses. She’s trained by Arnaud Delacour, and he usually brings his best runners to this Keeneland meet. She’ll be facing winners for the first time, but I think she might have a speed edge in here. She’s coming out of a sprint race, and Delacour is 28% when going sprint to route. John Velazquez is listed to ride.
Race 6
#2 We’re Still Here
I would just draw a line through his last race, he wants no part of racing on the grass. His dirt races this summer in a California were pretty good, and make him a formidable foe in here. He’ll be making his second start for Rudy Brisset, after beginning his career with Bob Baffert. Rudy is taking the blinkers off here, but I’d still expect this horse to show some speed. Jose Ortiz will be his pilot today.
#11 Lonely Private
This colt is making career start number 2 today. I bet him last time out, that race was a mile and a sixteenth on the grass. He showed speed for half the race and then faded pretty badly. I don’t really know how he’ll take to the dirt, but he does have a sharp work here over the Keeneland track last week. Trainer Norm Casse is 21% going turf to dirt, and he’s 36% when going route to sprint. It’s a tough post position today, and with Julien Leparoux aboard, I’d expect him to be a sitting a little off the pace today.
#5 Hail to the Chief
This colt by Danza will be making his debut here. He’s trained by Wesley Ward, and we all know how effective he can be with 2YOs, especially at Keeneland. I think this is a logical spot for this one. He was only purchased for $85,000, and their running him for a tag of $150,000. So even if he gets claimed, that was a good investment. These are connections that like to win at Keeneland, and will spot their horses aggressively. John Velazquez will ride.
Race 7
#8 Zuzanna
This mare is the veteran of the group. She’ll be making career start number 30, which far and away leads this field. She’s been in pretty decent form this year. She seems kind of versatile, which could be helpful, because I don’t see a lot of speed in this race. Hopefully Joel Rosario can get her into a good position. This is probably one of the toughest fields she’s faced recently, but I still like her chances. Bob Hess trains this one.
#2 Xanthique
This 3YO filly is trained by Tom Morley. I don’t recall Morley sending many runners to Keeneland in the past, so I view this as a node of confidence. She’s faced some pretty nice runners in New York over the summer, so I think she fits with this group. Morley is taking blinkers off for this race. I still expect her to be tactical, though. She draws a good post and should be able to save some ground. Javier Castellano has the mount, and in a small sample size, he hits at a 28% rate with Morley.
#6 Dabinett
Chad Brown trains this daughter of Blame. She’ll be making just career start number 4. She broke her maiden on Travers Day last time out at Saratoga. That was her first start in about 13 months. So she might be able to take another step forward here being second off the layoff. Like most Chad runners, she doesn’t have much early speed, but I do expect her to be closing well.
Race 8
#6 Indian Lover
This gelding has been off since June. He’ll be returning to the dirt for the first time since 2018. He shows a bullet work on the tab here at Keeneland last weekend, and trainer Larry Jones is 23% with this type of layoff. He’s also taking a major drop in class. I think he can sit just behind the speed in here, and hopefully work out a good trip. Chantal Sutherland will be the rider.
#8 One Man Party
Definitely just draw a line through his last race. They experimented with blinkers and that didn’t work, so they are removing them today. His three starts at Oaklawn last winter were all very solid. I expect him to be part of the speed, and he’s shown himself to be effective at this 6F distance. Declan Cannon will ride for trainer James Baker.
#3 Commandeering
This guy prefers to finish second, especially here at Keeneland. Three lifetime races here, three second place finishes. He’s been running some decent races lately, and speed figures that would make him a factor in here. He looks like he’ll be one of the closers in this race. He usually settles for the minor awards, so that’s what I would expect here as well. Joe Rocco Jr will be in the saddle.
Race 9
#3 Sacred Life
This colt has made two starts in the US for trainer Chad Brown since coming over from France. Both starts have been against stakes company, and both have been very good efforts. If he brings his best performance today, he’ll be extremely difficult to beat. Last time he sat close to a very slow pace, over a very soft turf course. This time I think he’ll get more pace in front of him, so he can come from behind, which is probably what he prefers. He’s 9 for 11 in hitting the exacta in his career. So he knows what his job is. Javier Castellano will ride.
#9 Krampus
Bill Mott brings this guy in off a little freshening since August. In two prior races here at Keeneland, he has finished second. So we know he likes this course. He’s also been effective at this distance. He has shown some tactical ability in the past, so I think he could be sitting in a good spot in this race. He’s been facing stakes company most recently, however, you can actually say that about most of the runners in here. This is a very salty allowance race. 6-1 on the ML is a decent price on this horse. Jose Ortiz will ride.
#10 Get Western
This guy will be bringing some pace to the party. His last two races were wire to wire victories. There is definitely other speed in this race, but he has shown the ability to sit just off of it and still have the ability to win. That’s why I actually like his outside post today. He should be able to stay in the clear and maybe just off the pace to his inside. He’ll have to run his very best race to have a chance in here, but if he does, he can get a piece of this. Brian Hernandez Jr has been successful on this horse before, and he’s back aboard.
Race 10
#9 It’s a Ford
This filly is dropping in class, and cutting back in distance. I think both of these things will benefit her. She showed speed going a mile last time out at Churchill, and faded to finish fourth. She has a couple of okay races going 6F before, so I think this 7F distance could be perfect for her. Apprentice Declan Carroll will ride for trainer Andrew McKeever.
#4 Cairo Cutie
Massive class dropper here. This Todd Pletcher trained filly has never been in a for a tag before. Pletcher is an astounding 40% when going from maiden special weight to maiden claiming. Her last race wasn’t great, but that was off a layoff and on a sloppy racetrack. She ran a couple races at Oaklawn last spring that would be good enough to beat this group, so she’ll be a player in this spot. John Velazquez will be in the irons.
#1 Lyonaisse
Considering this is a sprint race, I don’t see very much speed on paper. This is one horse that could maybe get the lead. She also draws the rail, which might force their hand. Corey Lanerie gets aboard for the first time, and he isn’t exactly a speed rider. But in this race, I think that’d be helpful. Corey does have success when teaming up with trainer Ben Colebrook, hitting at 24%.