Gulfstream Park 2/12/20
By: Michael Jordan Twitter: @mhjpicks
Race 1
Today’s opener is what you would expect from a 16k turf maiden claiming race, an open affair where any of these could come out of nowhere and surprise…however we will stick to positive angles here rather than intuition. #7 La Flamenca has the highest last out speed figure and has shown she can get the distance. She should be out front and nobody from the group really looks like they like to pass others yet. One that could is the #11 Debbies Utube Diva who has shown an ability to move position as the race goes on. A clean trip and she could be a factor. It’s hard to ignore #6 Cat’s J N J for Navarro/Saez (27%) who has been dropping down the class levels. Maybe she will wake up dirt to turf (25%).
7-11-6
Race 2
#7 Miz Chaplain is first off the claim for Joseph (41%), off the layoff (31%) and fits to improve in this race today. #9 Two Cents Worth will be pushing the pace along with #7 and a few others. She is off the maiden for Nicks (19%) and retains Torres who rode her to victory. #3 Allaboutthedrama is dropping to a more competitive level and has the chance to run back to the maiden win form. If so, that effort would win here. Too bad there is no real late speed types signed on to this one.
7-9-3
Race 3
This race is very similar to today’s opener. #4 Bee Major is in off the break for Mazza (3/8 on this angle) after a bad trip as a beaten favorite in MSW company at Belterra. Also a FTG look for a big improvement. #12 Plan of Attack drops further here after being well bet in three disappointing performances. Class drop should help and speed figs compare favorably. #7 Muhlenberg had a decent effort when moving to turf last out and looks to improve on that performance today.
4-12-7
Race 4
#3 Congrats This will benefit from a drop down for Yates who has good stats in all the relevant angles. He will need to stay close early. to have a chance. #7 Starship Taxi will be a pace factor and has been competitive at this level/distance. #2 Strike Play’s only win came at this distance but on a synthetic surface. Offers more upside than the others in this race. While the morning line favorite (#5) could run away with this one I went against in the top 3 because Weaver is not typically a high percentage winner off long layoffs.
3-7-2
Race 5
I’m thinking this will be a race where there are quite a few who will be pushing the pace setting things up for a late runner like #9 Champagne Horizon who will be seeking her third win in a row. Cibelli has been quietly having a nice meet (20%) and get Rendon back in the saddle for this one running second off (28%). Of the early speed #6 Mike’s Girl is the most appealing for Gargantuas/Ortiz off the freshening (26%). #1 Tootsie should get a ground saving trip and will look to get through traffic late. Gaffalione has shown ability to do this effectively and this horse has the speed to contend.
9-6-1
Race 6
#4 Lady Kate is off a win (19%) for Keneally/Ortiz, with Ortiz knowing how to handle her and get the best out of her. She has the highest last out speed and overall a nice resume. #1 Bold Script is a classy one off the layoff and a couple of bullet workouts. Interestingly enough has races lasix free for 11 starts but adds today. Could definitely pop a great effort here. #3 Cuddle Kitten is one of the few Kitten’s Joy horses who have had more success on dirt than turf. She is as tough as they come and will likely be on the lead, but just might be outmatched here.
4-1-3
Race 7
Sometimes you just have to go against a bad percentage angle and take a shot, oftentimes this can lead to a nice score. (Wonder what the percentage of that angle is???) Schietto is and 0-fer on 1st turf and overall only 6% with turf starts. But, #2 Speed Effect comes off an open lengths win, granted in a small field, which includes a next out winner who ran second. That race was slated for turf and taken off, and despite the effort he is running back on turf again. #4 Willing to Speed gets blinkers in an interesting move for a veteran that has worked of late for Kimmel. Ortiz gets the mount again and the off the pace running style could fit here. #5 Armchair Jockey is another with late speed, probably the best late speed of the group.
2-4-5
Race 8
#6 Amelia Madelyn beat a similar group by 5 lengths on a hand ride last time out, looks to be in a good post spot to swoop around the field and repeat. She seems to like the GP main track going 2 for 2 here in similar fashion. #1 Lady Archa is looking for 3 in a row and gets a five pound advantage but needs to avoid trouble drawing the rail. Preciado has a good positive ROI in all the relative categories here. #8 Words of Devine lost all chance at the break last time as she needs to be on/near the lead to have a chance. If she gets there she is a factor.
6-1-8
Race 9
This allowance turf sprints features a little bit of everything. Quite a few off the layoff, class risers, class droppers and even an Ascot invader. I only see a few of these who will look for the lead which is rare in a 5f race. Of these I prefer #4 O’Malleyfor Sevis/Castellano who don’t pair up often. Servis is masterful off the break (29%) and this filly will be ready. Just to her inside is #3 Spin Control coming off a bullet work. Figures raise some question marks but she is still maturing and will be on the front end, which is always dangerous. #7 Lady Grace, a last out winner, will be likely placed just off the lead waiting to strike in the stretch. She has the highest last out speed figure with steady works since the win.
4-3-7
Race 10
The finale is full of recognizable names, none of which are up for a claim in this AOC so this projects to be an outstanding race. #12 Ballagh Rocks is second off for Mott (32%) with Saez who has G1 experience with this one. Should be ready to fire and certainly has the speed and ability to win if Saez can keep him in it early. A couple of likely long shots with a live shot are the only two who had their picture taken in 2019, #2 Golden Dragon is stretching out a little bit for Maker/Ortiz and is second off the layoff (18%). He will need to improve but no doubt Maker can make that happen. The other live longshot is #1 Musical Heart who comes in with the highest last out speed, but went on the shelf after that win against lesser company. The positive is the recent works are great including back to back bullets. #11 Salute With Honor will have no choice but to send early and his best races have been on the lead. Off a bullet work and second off for Casse (21%) don’t overlook him. #8 Frostmourne only raced once in 2019 which is concerning. He comes off a bullet work and will certainly contend if he is back to his old form.