It’s that time of year when we turn the page and now we work on spring racing. Probably one of the most exciting times of the year as a nice horses are getting back into training and the three-year-olds are looking for the Triple Crown. I’m excited to get the Keeneland meet going and hopefully we can put some place in place to make some money.
Race 1
My first glance at this race I thought something was wrong. If you look at the purchase price for the majority of these horses, it’s very low. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a race with the highest price paid for a horse in the yearling sale was $28,000, but the average price in this field is about $5000. It’s not necessarily a weak field but for somebody to spend $1500-$4000 on a yearling Filly, there has to be some confirmation problems. All my picks are made on Wednesday morning and does not take into account scratches. Thursday weather in Lexington looks cool and windy this may play a part in your handicapping.
4-2-1
4- Quality H Two O – Once again not the type a race that I was hoping to start the meat out with but somebody has to win. This filly shows three straight bullet works and a trainer that hits with a positive ROI in first starts. Not bad for a $2700 yearling purchase.
2- Mean Sophia- swinging out a bit here but like the fact this to your old has had two bullet works in her last four attempts.
1- Allaboutaprincess- The inside here is not as bad as it is on Other racing strips. I’m swinging for the fences here to get a long shot to hit the board as you should get at least 20 to 1 on this first timer.
If there’s any early scratches and one of the Ward 2-year-olds gets in, this race becomes a no brainer, as he is a heavy hitter at Keeneland with two-year-olds.
Race 2
6-2-3
6- La Femme Royale -Love this four year-old filly, I think she takes a lead and just keeps going for this high percentage outfit. Not sure if you’re going to get 8 to 1 as she is in the morning line, but I still think you’ll get value. She was placed in the wrong position last outing, as I don’t think a mile on the turf is where she needs to be. Her last three workouts are amazing and I think she comes into this race fit and fast.
2- Zena Rules- this mare is always coming at the end as she shows over third in the money in 30 lifetime races. She has raced very well in her last two in New Orleans and I look for her to pick up pieces down the lane.
3- Honey Bunny – another that is very consistent and does show some back class. Will likely be the race time favourite but I don’t think she can win this one.
You may also note that I did not put Dance Rhythms in my top three. I don’t like the fact that she is coming off much shorter races and mainly on the turf. She has never hit the board in her three tries at seven furlongs on the dirt.
Race 3
10-11-5
10- Sassy King-another tough race to handicap but here we go. Sassy King hasn’t really run bad in most of his races and looks to be the class of this group. The trainer is not strong with this type of layoff but I feel that the drop down to $30,000 will work to his advantage. His speed figures are at or above all in the race and his last two races at Turfway were quality.
11- Lemon Again -This Lemon Drop Kid gelding had a nice race at a lower level in New Orleans in his last and may be able to overcome this outside post. Trainer Stewart can win at Keeneland and I like the fact this horse will sit mid pack and wait for that stretch move.
5- Storm Rider- lightly raised three-year-old in the Zito barn, looks to graduate with this fairly weak field. Had a troubled race last time at this class and I like the fact he is stretching out to a distance that should not be a problem and attracts Gaffalione.
Race 4
9-2-3
9- Taruca – has a nice starting position in this field, and is dropping down big time against a fairly weak field. Some really nice workouts for this top class trainer. It’s amazing when you look at his previous sides everything is from 6 1/2 to 1 to 18 1/2 to 1 so it says to me he takes some money but not a lot, I think if you get 7 to 2 you’ll be doing well value wise.
2- Turner Time- three wins in a row for this four-year-old colt that shows a 50% win percentage. Adding to the mix is a high percentage trainer and jockey. My only drawback is the extra half furlong.
3- Zaevion- two wins in a row for this five-year-old though fairly wide apart. When he took a big drop down in class, he connected both at Churchill and Oaklawn in his last two. Also a bit concerned for the extra half for long and the way the races going to be played out.
Race 5
2-8-11
2- Instilled Regard- Is definitely the class of this race and will be bet very heavily. Value no, likely winner yes. Has been training up for this turf race and showed amazing work March 16.
8 -Say The Word- always a fan of the Sam-Son runners In these kinds of races. This four-year-old has done well in limited races. Has some very nice breeding and should we do well at this mile distance. A bit of a home pick for me as it is an Ontario bred.
11- Sellwood- post may be a problem here, but this consistent runner should find his way through the pack and be able to get a piece of the pie. It looks like as a result of the Santa Anita problems, some trainers are deciding to run at Keeneland for the spring meet. You will also know how well this horse is done and his last two races with the removal of blinkers.
Race 6
6-7-8
6- Mo Gayle- some nice things to like about this three-year-old filly. She has had only two races but they’re both very high-quality. The stretch out to this to turn event should not be a problem based on her breeding. I think she may even be able to control the pace and lull the field. She’s also been training well with the number of four furlong works.
7- Enliven- takes a class drop for this one that should appreciate both the drop and the distance. Had some really nice races last fall in New York and has some nice workouts leading into this contest. Class of the field.
8- Good Profit- not crazy about the breeding for this girl, but his raced well despite the fact. I really like the fairgrounds race on March 5 where she was obviously in trouble and still finished well. A 38% trainer takes over with a 23% jock looks like a good combination.
Race 7
12-3-6
12- Bulletin- The race I’ll be looking forward to watching and wagering. I’d like to go against Bulletin, but he has two for two with almost $600,000 in his account. Consistent workouts leading up to this stake race And Pletcher knows how to get them ready.
3- Tobacco Road – We can now look for some value behind the favorite. His race on February 10 at Fairgrounds was very impressive even though I was at a much lower level. When you look at his race line it was very troubled and still only lost the race by the head with a very good speed figure.
6- Real News- another that we should get value for them to put in the mix with the outside favourite. He’s won both of his starts by slim margins but has shown an affinity for the turf and the distance.
This race is wide open and should be a pleasure to watch and wager on. Lots of wake up possibilities that you might want to use in your horizontal tickets.
Race 8
9-8-7
9- Ipanema Beach- now goes for the Colebrook barn who is 29% of the barn change. This girl should like the distance and the running style that I project today. Also favourable is the big drop down in class as she was running in the Ashland Stakes at this time last year.
8- Tolly Ho- A nice race last time at Turfway and will get lasix for this start. I think the quality of this race will be similar to that which she faced February 21 at Turfway. She’ll be on or close to the pace for as far as she can go.
7- Miss Harry- A nice three-year-old from a nice barn looking to do well in her second off the layoff. Has shown speed in the past against tougher and will do the same here. Has some experience at Keeneland against classier rivals.