A really nice card on tap here today. A couple of stakes races, including the Grade I Maker’s 46 Mile.
*Handicapped this card with turf racing in mind. Weather forecast does call for a little rain Friday morning. So we’ll need to keep an eye on that.
Race 1
#8 Tactical Pursuit
Quite a few changes for this 4YO colt by Tiznow. First and foremost, it’s his first start for trainer Brendan Walsh. This is actually a pretty good angle for Walsh. He hits at about 23% with horses first time in his barn. Another change for this horse is the dirt. His previous six tries have all been on the turf. I prefer his breeding for the dirt, so I think he could improve on this surface. This is also his first time in for a claiming tag. He draws the outside, but I think he has the speed to break alright and hopefully get over a little going into that first turn. Tyler Gafflione in the saddle.
#6 Cheytac
Trainer Angel Montano sends out this first time gelding. His last two races were on the turf against tougher competition. His race three back was a nice maiden breaker routing on the dirt at Fair Grounds. He’s by fair the most experienced runner in the field with 17 starts under his belt. And just like everyone else in here, he only has 1 career win, so that’s not great. But I think he’s in his best form right now, and he shows a sharp work on the tab right after being gelded. So he could be ready to run today.
#4 Drummond
This 3YO is first off the claim for trainer Matt Shirer. I must admit, I’m not very familiar with him. But he has outstanding numbers across the board. He’s 46% off the claim, 23% off this type of layoff, and he’s 32% in dirt races. I’m willing to draw a line this horse’s two tries at maiden special weight company. And if you just look at his races against realistic competition, he’s done quite well.
Race 2
#7 Myositis Mystique
These lower level races are definitely not my favorite. But I’m putting this horse on top because the last time she sprinted on fast dirt was a pretty solid effort at Churchill last November. In her career she’s 13 for 20 in the exacta on the fast main track. I think the cutback from the mile race will be to her benefit. And trainer Gregory Foley is 16% when going route to sprint. James Graham rides.
#3 Our Girl Abby
This girl is a little puzzling. She comes in from New York Danny Gargan, who has sent in some live runners. She has been facing WAY tougher competition, but her last race was a head scratcher to me. She did virtually no running. Now, she has done that in the past, and then bounced back with very solid efforts. If she does that here, she’ll be very tough to beat. She also has speed, which should help in this race. The ice cold Robby Albarado takes the mount.
Race 3
#2 Baladera
Trainer Paulo Lobo brings this filly in from Southern California. She’s been off since mid January. She’s taking a drop in class from maiden $50,000 to maiden $30,000 here today. So that should help her. She’s also trying dirt for the first time. I don’t think that should be much of an issue, the breeding suggests she could handle the dirt. They only paid $42,000 for this girl at auction back in 2016, so running her here for the 30 seems like a logical spot.
#4 Midnight Sway
This filly has also been absent since mid January. That race was against maiden 30,000 on the synthetic at Turfway Park. She was only beaten a neck that day. I expect her to show some pace. She’s trained by Wesley Ward, and anything he sends out here at Keeneland has to be respected. John Velazquez takes the call.
#6 Adheretome
First time starter here for trainer Shelbe Ruis. She’s just getting back into being the main trainer (after her dad took over a couple years ago), so there’s limited recent data on her, but she can hit with a first time starter. This filly is by Paynter, and his offspring can pop at first asking also.
Race 4
#12 Award Winner
Brian Lynch sends out this colt by Ghostzapper. He will be trying turf for the first time, but that should definitely not be an issue considering this guy is a half sibling to multiple graded stakes turf winner Oscar Performance. Lynch is 0 for his last 23 with first time turf runners, but I think the breeding can trump that in this particular case. He draws the outside post today, but I don’t think that will be a problem because he looks to have a big pace advantage in here. He’s been facing some pretty tough rivals down in Florida over the winter, so if he brings his A game, he’ll be tough to beat. Joel Rosario rides.
#8 Logical Myth
This guy is intriguing to me. He won a live (multiple next out winners) maiden special weight down at the Fair Grounds at today’s distance on the turf, beating 11 other rivals. His other two lifetime starts aren’t great, but I can find legit excuses in those. I’m handicapping him just off of his maiden win, and I think that puts him in the mix today. I’m expecting a mid pack trip for him today. Gregory Foley trains, Gabriel Saez rides.
#7 Demarchelier
This colt is making his first start as 3YO. He’s been off since November. He broke his maiden that day at first asking for trainer Chad Brown. In typical Chad fashion, this horse sat mid pack and then showed a strong kick in the stretch. Chad really points for this meeting, so I always expect everything he sends out here at Keeneland to run well. He’s definitely got a chance in here, but because of the layoff, and his first time facing winners, I’m taking a shot against in this spot. Javier Castellano has the mount.
Race 5
#9 Unicorn
This is another horse being sent in from Southern California. Richard Baltas sends out this daughter of Bodemeister. This will be her third lifetime start, but first time on the dirt. She comes out of some decent maiden races in SoCal. She finished 2nd last race to a horse named Maxim Rate, who just finished 2nd in the Grade III Providencia at Santa Anita last weekend. Another angle I like with this horse is the blinkers come off. She showed legit routing speed last time, so maybe without the blinkers she’ll settle a little more. And Baltas is a remarkable 31% when removing the shades. The red hot Rosario has the mount.
#4 High Road
Rusty Arnold sends out this G Watts Humphrey homebred. She spent the winter down in Florida, and has been freshened up for the past couple months. The main angle I like here is she is finally trying a route distance. This is what she was bred to do, and even at those sprint distances, she has shown a decent amount of ability. Arnold is off to a slow start this year, but like many trainers, this a meet he specifically points to; so he’s more than capable to get one in the winners circle here. Irad Ortiz takes the call, so that’s also a positive sign.
#8 Smooth With a Kick
Maybe this horse is named after a preferred running style. Or possibly describing an alcoholic beverage (that’s more likely). At any rate, she’s definitely got a shot in here. This daughter of Candy Ride (who stands for $80,000) was purchased for a hefty $650,000. She took a lot of money in her debut at Gulfstream, but she just kinda ran even that day. She’s been off since then, and now stretches out in distance today. Chad Brown is good with all theses angles, so not much else to say about that. Javier rides, as he did in her debut.
Race 6
#4 Hot Shot Kid
I’m taking a little bit of a shot here with this Minnesota bred. He’s coming off a 6 month layoff, so that is a slight concern. But he’s run well and Keeneland in the past, and also run well at this level. He’s got 7 lifetime wins, which is the most in this field. He seemed to be getting into pretty good form toward the end of last year, so I’m hoping he can pick up where he left off. He’s got speed, but doesn’t need the lead. He’s drawn well, so I’m hoping he can get a good trip. McLean Robertson trains, and Chris Landeros rides.
#9 Curate
This 5YO gelding is making hair his fifth lifetime start, so he’s obviously had some issues in the past. But when he’s right, he has shown some serious ability. Last fall right here at Keeneland he beat Bobby’s Wicked One, who last weekend beat a talented group to win the Grade III Commonwealth. This is another horse that has speed, but doesn’t necessarily need the lead. He draws outside, so I think he can kind of put himself anywhere he wants depending on how they break. Tyler Gafflione will have some options with this guy. Tyler’s been a little cold to start this meet, but that could turn around at any time.
#1 Copper Town
This guy can be a little perplexing. When he runs his A race, he is extremely good. But other times, he throws some real clunkers. He draws the rail in here, so that might force their hand and need to send from the start. He last to a talented stable mate last time out in a G3 at Gulfstream Park. He’s raced once before here at Keeneland, and that was arguably his best performance to date. So he has proven to like this track. It’s Pletcher and Castellano, enough said there.
Race 7
#7 Thriving
I’m taking a little bit of a shot in here with this girl. Trainer Jeff Mullins brings her here from Santa Anita. She hasn’t raced in a couple months, but she has a solid worktab, and even has a work over this Keeneland turf course. She began her career over seas, and in some of those sprint races she even showed a little speed. So hopefully she can break well today, and be sitting in the top five or so heading into the far turn. Mullins is off to a nice start in 2019, and I think he brings this girl here with a purpose. Chris Landeros aboard.
#8 Play On
This girl is probably the one to beat in here. She really seems to be on the improve, and her last race at Gulfstream was very impressive. She broke sharp that day and took the nine horse field gate to wire. She’s been working well, and she gets Javier aboard today. Trainer Brad Cox is having a nice year, and turf sprints is one of his strengths (26%).
#1 Ginger Nut
Another SoCal transplant here. John Sadler sends this one out. She’s coming out of that same race that I mentioned above. She had a really rough trip that day, plus that was her first start since last August in England. So because of all those things, I’m willing to give her another chance. Joel Rosario has the ride, and he and Sadler are a wicked combo.
Race 8
#3 Casses Story
I like this guy quite a bit today. He will need a little luck in a couple ways. First off, he’ll need a clean trip, he projects to be toward the back of pack early on, and with that will need to avoid traffic trouble later on. Secondly, I’m hoping that it doesn’t rain. He seems to really prefer a dry track, and today’s weather looks a little iffy. A little luck that is on his side is the post position. Going 1 mile here at Keeneland really puts the outside horses at a disadvantage, so being the 3 hole should benefit him. Strong connections here with Joe Sharp training and his main guy Adam Beschizza riding.
#2 Kershaw
Phil D’Amato trains this gelded son of Run Away and Hide. He hasn’t raced since January, and that race was at a mile and an eighth. I think that distance proved to be a little long for him. This mile trip is right up his alley, and he looks to be one of the pace players in here. I’m looking for him to be forwardly placed, and that California speed is always dangerous. He’s been working very well, and has a work over the track here. Irad Ortiz in the irons.
#6 Ballard High
Another one in here that has been freshened up for the last couple months. Trainer Dallas Stewart is about 12% off this type of break, but this horse has some great works leading up to this. In nine previous career starts at today’s 8F distance, he has hit the board in all of them. Gabriel Saez rides.
Race 9
#4 Delta Prince
This guy has run some really impressive races on the turf. I thought his last race in particular was very good. It was over an extremely soft and tiring course, plus it was going a distance that was probably a little further than he’d like to go. Yet the only two horses that beat him that day are some very serious runners. He comes into this race fresh, and trainer Jimmy Jerkens is 24% off the layoff, and also a very respectable 25% in graded stakes competition. So when he points them to specific races, they tend to run big. I’m expecting that today. Javier Castellano is back aboard.
#6 Heart to Heart
A real pro here. Making career start number 41, this multiple graded stakes winner brings a lot of speed to the party. He loves to be out front from the jump, and I only really see one other potential speed horse in here. He loves Keeneland, and his the defending champion of this race. I do think he prefers firm ground, so keeping an eye on the weather could be helpful for this one. Julien Leparoux rides him very well, these two get along great.
#5 Qurbaan
This horse came over to the states last fall, and hasn’t really run a bad effort. He ran a decent third here in the Shadwell last year, so we know he likes this course. He seems to also run well on any turf condition. He doesn’t have much early pace, but he does a strong finishing kick. He’s been facing some really talented competition lately, and based on those efforts, he definitely belongs here. Trainer Kiaran Mclaughlin is having a great 2019 so far.
Race 10
#9 Violent Lady
Dallas Stewart sends out this second time starter by Violence. She decent in her debut at the Fair Grounds over a sloppy track. She had a little traffic trouble in the stretch, but once she angled to the outside she still finished with interest. I’m hoping with that experience under her belt, she take another step forward today. Stewart 17% with second time starters. Julien Leparoux rides.
#11 Palomita
Another second time starter here. This one comes from the barn of Chad Brown. She debuted in February at Gulfstream, and showed a decent amount of pace, so I don’t think the outside post should hurt her too much today. If she breaks well, she could be right at the front. Chad is 30% with second time starters, and as I’ve said throughout my analysis, he really points for this meet. So I always respect everything he sends out here. Javier rode in the debut, and he’s back today.
#6 Doll Collection
First timer here for trainer Ralph Nicks. This Mandy Pope homebred is by Tapit, and out of multiple graded stakes winner Groupie Doll. I’m always interested to see how offspring of “all-star” parents run. The horse spent the winter down in Florida and has been working pretty steadily up to this race. The last couple works seem to be a little sharper. Nicks is about 12% first time out. Tyler Gafflione has the mount.