Race 1
2 – Patrol – first-timer for Mark Casse is a $350k purchase from the Keenland spring sale, and he’s been working sharply towards today’s debut. I like the inside draw if he can show some early speed and clear, and the barn is hitting on 31% of their mounts at the Big A with Davis in the irons. Servis has the big runner on the outside coming off the LONG layoff, so let’s hope he takes the money and our top pick drifts on the tote. 2-6-5.
Race 2
2 – Bronxville – I don’t like this race much at all, so in a $16k claiming field going the one turn mile with no standout runners I’m going with a simple approach… lone speed (?). I know the form hasn’t been sharp since the spring, but he does seem to break quickly and maybe nobody in here wants to go with him? Stranger things have happened, and I like Carmouche keeping the mount with his aggressive front-running style. 2-8-1
Race 3
1 – Fight On Lucy – this one has handled herself very well in the last four tries in allowance and listed stakes company, and I think she might catch the perfect pace setup this afternoon. She’s four for seven ITM at the Big A and has shown the late-kick in a few of her recent starts, so with the speed to her outside I think she can save ground and come get them at a price. 1-7-5
Race 4
7 – Dancing Kiki – she’s drawn outside in all five starts thus far, and that trend continues this afternoon. Tried the mile the last two starts after a few cracks at six panels, and will split the difference today going seven against another field of maidens. I really liked the 1/12 effort coming a little off the pace, and take note of the jockey change to Carmouche today; I think you’ll see her more forwardly placed in a wide open affair at a price. 7-2-4
Race 5
2 – It’s a Chance – she went for it in the last start at this level and ran out of gas trying to wire them at a mile, but comes back today cutting back to six panels and might find herself in a field lacking early punch. The layoff stats are brutal for the barn, but Hernandez keeps the mount and should know exactly what the task at hand is. 2-1-12
Race 6
6 – Win With Pride – He’s been very good in his last four starts, the last two coming over the non-preferred Aqueduct slop. He has six wins in 13 tries over fast tracks, and he should get that here today. Has the versatility to try and grab the lead but also looks comfortable sitting off the pace if and when the horse to his outside goes for broke early. 6-7-3
Race 7
6 – Bustin Hoffman – I like that he’s been battling in the allowance ranks and simply got beat by a better horse last-out. He has good speed and could wire them, but I think his best shot is to sit just off and hope it heats up early. Should get something near the 5-1 ML, let’s see if he can breakthrough against state-bred company today. 6-1-9
Race 8
3 – Blugrass Jamboree – in a short field with TONS of speed going six panels, this one stood out to me right away looking at the form. She might be the only one of the six who won’t go for the early lead, and she has proven time and again that she can hang in there and at least give it a try late. It’s a simple pace play, and I think the price will be very fair. Hope for a meltdown… 3-4-2
Race 9
9-12-7
Have a great Saturday everyone!
2019-2020 Aqueduct
Week 1 (11/2) – 10: 2-2-2, -30% ($20 wagered, $16 returned)
Week 2 (11/9) – 10: 0-1-4, -100% ($20 wagered, zero returned)
Week 3 (12/7) – 10: 2-2-2. -53% ($20 wagered, $9.40 returned)
Week 4 (12/14) – 9: 5-1-1, +98.89% ($18 wagered, $35.80 returned)
Week 5 (12/21) – 9: 2-2-2, even ($18 wagered, $17.90 returned)
Week 6 (12/28) – 9: 0-4-1, -100% ($18 wagered, zero returned)
Week 7 (1/4) – 9: 4-0-1, +97.7% ($18 wagered, $35.90 returned)
Week 8 (1/11) – 9: 2-4-2, +18.9% ($18 wagered, $21.40 returned)
Week 9 (1/25) – 9: 1-1-2, -56.1% ($18 wagered, $7.90 returned)
Week 10 (2/8) – 9: 2-2-1. +11.1% ($18 wagered, $20 returned)
GRAND TOTAL (2018-current): 541: 125-107-92, -16.8% ($1,082 wagered, $900.30 returned)
Top Pick Win Rate = 23.1%
Top Pick ITM Rate = 59.9%
2019 Belmont (Fall)
Final Total: 55: 9-12-9, -41.6% ($110 wagered, $64.20 returned)
2019 Saratoga
Final Total – 66: 17-14-16, +11.3% ROI ($132 wagered, $146.90 returned)
2019 Belmont (spring)
Final Total – 65: 13-9-10, -43.8% ROI ($130 wagered, $73 returned)
2018-2019 Aqueduct
Final Total: 202: 51-37-24, -16.3% ROI ($404 wagered, $338.20 returned)
2018 Saratoga
Final Total: 60: 15-16-15, -3.6% ROI ($120 wagered, $115.70 returned)