Thanks for checking out today’s analysis. Aside from this weekly article I offer daily free full card picks for Gulfstream Park as well as other major tracks. Give me a follow on Twitter @mhjpicks. Saturday’s Gulfstream Park card offers us 12 puzzles to solve, let’s get some winners!
Race 1
Full field for the opener, a 2YO MCL race on turf. #9 Yito Machine is a first timer with excellent turf pedigree. Sanchez doesn’t have much success with first time starters (5%) but this one is off a bullet work and should be turned up. #8 Uncle Fun gets back to turf after a third place effort on the slop. Experience should help and you have to like the improvement in the second start, a similar effort could get the win. #6 Politikum moves to turf for Loza (20%-1/5) and drops from MSW company (50%-1/2).
A (Must Use): 9-8-6
B (Consider): 5
Race 2
Not many of these have actually reached the Beyer Par, but #1 Itsmyluckygirl has in her last two starts. She seems to stand out in this group, but consider it is a $6,250 claiming race, so things can unravel quickly. #11 Abarrio Forever drops back down to this level where she had more success and figures to be a factor, although likely bet down since she was a beaten favorite last out. #5 Myfirstexwife drops to the lowest rung and seems to have a good race every other race, and today is that other race.
A (Must Use): 1-11-5
B (Consider): 10-6
Race 3
A small field of entries for this maiden special weight race with not much data to go off of. #5 Cozy Cafe is a first time starter for Plesa that has a steady work tab and should be ready to go. #2 Fearless Girl is second out and retains Prado on the mount which is a good sign for potential improvement.
A (Must Use): 5-2
B (Consider): 1-6
Race 4
Nice full field for this 12.5 claiming race set to run on turf. #1 Red Sorrell drops back into his lowest level and figures favorably speed wise. #6 Kunai is the likely favorite and perhaps more logical choice as Delgado is 23% first claim. #5 Cark has been in the money 5 of 7 starts.
A (Must Use): 1-6-5
B (Consider): 10
Race 5
Looks to be a two horse race between #9 Flawless Moon and #3 Hydraulic. #9 actually moves down slightly off the win, an interesting move. His figures aren’t the top in the race, but I think the pace figures to be run in his favor. #3 is the horse who consistently hits close to the Beyer par for this race indicating a high probability of success.
A (Must Use): 9-3
B (Consider): 10-7
Race 6
All the action in this 2YO race should be centered around the middle of the field. #9 Gulf Coast Gal needs to overcome starting issues, and when she does she should be able to improve enough to get the win. #6 Mona Stella stretches out and that should prove to be a nice move for the filly who just missed on debut. #7 Vow Saver is a live longshot for Hamm who is 20% with first time starters and 22% with 2YO’s.
A (Must Use): 9-6-7
B (Consider): 8
Race 7
The Rainbow 6 starts off with a potentially chalky first leg. #9 Tons of Gold has the best numbers and is off claim for Matier who is 22% off the claim. He likes this trip as he is in the money 7/10 times. #1 Skyray drops to his lowest level so should see an increase in speed. He is 1/1 at the distance. #4 Slippy would be the price play of the group for me, bumping up slightly.
A (Must Use): 9-1
B (Consider): 4
Race 8
This race features a local favorite who figures, but I will go against with #2 Yes I Am Free who moves back to the Casse barn. He is 2/2 on the Gulfstream blades and primed for a reunion win. #7 Pay Any Price is a 10 year old gelding who specializes at this trip. He is 17 for 28, so a tough one to play against. Don’t let his age fool you, he just won a 75k stakes race. #5 Tropicat will be firing late trying to make a late bid at the front runners.
A (Must Use): 2-7
B (Consider): 5-4
Race 9
A pretty wide open 2YO MSW will be a potential chaos/knockout race for multis. #3 Gran Runner goes for Barboza who is 20% with 2YO’s, has had steady works, and potential to handle this distance first out. #10 Frozen Funds is an interesting firster out of Frosted and was nearly 200k at auction. Danner is a relative newcomer in the training world and has been making a name for herself attracting some nice horses. #1 Al Heybay had a nice first effort, improvement off of that will put him in a good position to be a serious contender. #5 The Great Oz is a promising colt with a good effort first out despite the jockey losing the whip.
A (Must Use): 3-10-1
B (Consider): 5-2
Race 10
Another potential chaos race. #5 Man of Vision is off a maiden win from last year, but is working well, including a recent bullet. He will look to wire the field with the aggressive apprentice (and 7 pound advantage) Burgos. #4 Valiant Appeal comes back east off a bullet workout and several good races in Oklahoma and Texas. #2 Royal Duke has never been out of the money at this distance, but has seconditis and is looking for the first victory at the trip. He has competitive numbers.
A (Must Use): 5-4-2
B (Consider): 9
Race 11
This shapes up to be a competitive race with several horses who can get the job done. #1 Miles Ahead is off a huge effort, and while that could indicate bounce, Plesa is 37% with last out winners. He has won three of his last five including one at this level. #3 Man of Honor goes for breeder/owner/trainer Roussel who is 26% at the meet. This son of Curlin comes off of 2 bullet works. #7 Silverly Enough would be the price play here as he is 4 for 6 at the distance.
A (Must Use): 1-3
B (Consider): 7-6
Race 12
Today’s finale is not a maiden event, which is usually the case for Gulfstream. It’s a straight 12.5k claiming race going a mile on the turf. Beyond the ML favorite it could get pretty chaotic. #7 Black Hope is a deserving favorite for D’Angelo who is 32% first off the claim. This horse will try to avoid the chaos and look to wire the group. That chaos could come in the form of #9 Chaos Kid for Delgado (22%) who could hang close enough throughout to make a late bid. #2 Senzazione has raced well on turf and could be a factor.
A (Must Use): 7-9
B (Consider): 2-4