Hey everyone, Bryan Doranski here for Friday at Oaklawn Park! Last week was pretty bad, felt good getting 2nd and 3rd choices home to start the card, but then a giant whif the rest of the way. Last week this column had 7 out of 9 winners total, with the top picks going 3-1-1. It is a grind, and only playing 1 day can be tough for the stats, but I am committed to getting this to profitability before the meet ends!
Last Week ago: 9-1-1-0 11.1% (2/9 ITM) ($18 wagered, $8.80 returned net -$0.60) $0.97 ROI on $2 Win Bets
Oaklawn 2020: 47-10-9-4 25.0% (23/47 ITM) ($90 wagered, $64.20 returned) net -$25.80) $1.38 ROI on $2 Win Bets
Enjoy the races and give me a follow-on Twitter @BDHorseplayer-
Race 1
3 BLESSED AGAIN- How this race is approached will be key here for this filly at an 8-1 ML. Cannot let SARA SEA get too far ahead by herself, to keep this interesting. Thompson will need to stay within striking distance to have a chance, but on a slight cut back she should be fit here. Last workout was less than impressive which can bring us a price today.
1 SARA SEA- There is a chance this Lukas entry can wire this field at a pretty good price. She won last month and then a no interest type effort following that. A slight stretch out that she has won at before to a mile. Price can be good with how much money the 2 RAZEENA will take.
4 GOODBYE EARL- 2nd from the layoff here for David Vance and she fits well here on a pace scenario. Last out effort didn’t surprise considering the spotty works and layoff. Probably a nice paid work in that effort getting primed for the spring season.
Race 2
8 TIZANILLUSION- Going to be short here but considering the back class here, I think the horse should win. Mojica on the mount, and with a contained early effort should be able to finish.
1 M AND M GIRL- Good chance this horse is too far back to be a contender at a short price, however if anyone decides to push TIZANILLUSION again and press the fractions, this could fall apart. If it does, I want Cohen here even though Diodoro has been ice cold lately.
Race 3
8 STORM CLASSIC- Considering the effort in January at Delta this horse intriques me but comes in heavy compared to the rest of the field. That weight could be a hinderance today, but this horse ran pretty even in debut. If we can get a good price, this one can get it done. Workouts haven’t been stellar but small sample size at LAD. Will need to improve to win, but logical with the 2nd start.
9 BABADOOOK- 9 Starts and 0 wins, if this horse can’t win today, then I don’t know if he can. This field is less than stellar considering. I struggle to find reasons to bet this horse, and after 9 attempts I really do not want to. If there was another first-time starter here with decent works, I probably would look elsewhere.
Race 4
4 FIRST ALTERNATE- So this race, I like the other selections more, but they stand to be super cheap prices. This horse comes from a huge layoff, but the workouts have been very impressive. Cut back here, and a horse that showed a lot of early speed could be dangerous at this 8-1 ML.
1 FULL OF GRACE- Rail has not been horrible at Oaklawn as I remember before and Talamo has the skills to understand the ride if the rail is bad today. Watch yesterday’s replay and see how the rail acted and if they were avoiding it. This horse has the speed to be good on the 2nd start from the layoff, just don’t like the 9-5 ML here.
7 SANDY SANGRIA- Can this horse improve and win today? That is a good question considering connections coming here after 6 months off. Workouts are not impressive but if this horse floats to double digits I would be interested.
Race 5
2 SEQUENCE- 2nd from the layoff here and clearly needed the race. Works have been decent enough for the class. Best effort in the early career in 2019 could beat this field according to the past performances. We may not get that but if we manage a nice 4-1, I will be tempted to hammer it.
6 GRAHAMSTAN-Horse has been close several times and seems to have been slightly improving as getting older. Dropped class last time and connections stayed in the same level, after the 3rd place. Quinonez stays on the mount and in this field could very well win at a 5-1 or higher price.
11 LEO DEL REO- Interesting horse here, just not sure if we see him run. The class drop last out after a layoff to me seems odd. Was running MSW in April 2019 and returned to 16k Maiden level. Most recent workout before that start wasn’t great but the horse was able to get 2nd. I think this field might be tougher than last and provide some good competition.
Race 6
7 VIOLENT RIDGE- If you want to fade Diodoro I understand but even with his cold streak this horse seems to be much the best in this field. Had a very long layoff, but the last 2 outings from the layoff, this horse grew up and got strong and should be tough.
2 DRC ALL INCLUSIVE- Last out the race went quick and this horse was able to get there. This race could provide the same opportunity and Vazquez will have this horse in a good spot. If VIOLENT RIDGE plays around with this field the I fully expect DRC ALL INCLUSIVE to take advantage of it.
Race 7
5 MOST MISCHIEF- Here I am supporting Vazquez/Villafranco entry again. Last out the horse was never involved but given the awkward start it does not surprise me at all. If he can repeat that Feb 6th performance can win today at a really nice price. I would expect this one to get bet down a little bit but should offer some value.
12 ACADEMY BAY- Broberg horse with Mojica aboard from the outside post. Broke a little slow last 2 efforts but still ran pretty good. Same effort with a good start can win versus this field but good chance this horse goes off as the favorite.
6 SACRED KIKI BIRD- 15 starts, 2 win, hard to get excited here but had a long layoff and shipped to here to cheaper company. Ran very fast early last time and probably outran himself but was lucky to save place. With instructions to run a little slower this time should be able to finish.
Race 8
5 SEKANI- Making 3rd career start and looking for win #2. Add in a weight allowance and hard to not like this horse. I would expect the horse to be the favorite. Looking at the last race, as well as the workout line, no surprise here. I think if someone other can Cannon was riding; the morning line would be even shorter.
4 SUPERSTAR BEA- Nice morning line on this horse but a career loser coming off of a long layoff is hard to get behind. Ran very well at Hawthorne before winter break but would expect a little coming back to earth. Can be sneaky here if the public lets the odds float.
7 JOY IN THE JOURNEY- De La Cruz seems to get great efforts out of a lot of his mounts, as he did on this one last out. Stays on here and should have about the same pace setup as that race. There are a lot of horses here that will be pressing JOY IN THE JOURNEY. Workout line is nothing to be envious of but it is a 20k claimer so what do you expect?
Race 9
2 VISUAL MAGIC- Let us not overthink this race. 2nd off layoff, looked pretty good last out in that effort. Taking that into account and that they decided to add blinkers, lets give it a whirl. Short short horse and that causes me to balk coupled with Diodoro’s recent slump.
3 SUBIACO- Horse adds 3 lbs for the first time but is making first start as a 4 year old from the layoff. Unfortunate that it has taken so long to break maiden but has been against some pretty decent horses early in the career. Horse should be pressing perfectly and has shown some ability to kick late in the stretch. Workout spacing is not what I like to see on a layoff horse but going back to last start at Oaklawn she liked the track.