Gulfstream Park – January 25,2020
Twitter: @bmata85
Gulfstream Park Daily Gallop Selections: 22/81 (27%, $2.64)
*Does not include off the turf races where turf selections were made
Best Bet: Pegasus World Cup – 2 Tax – 8-1 ML (more likely 7/2 at post time)
Race 1 – 4+ ALW $51k – N1x – Turf – 1 M
Selections: 10-5-4-1
The opening race on the Pegasus card kicks off a day of tough full field handicapping puzzles. 5 Lovely Queen (IRE) figures to take the majority of money given the presence of Irad aboard a Chad Brown runner. Despite the lengthy layoff, the Irish bred filly figures to be ready to go as Chad excels in these situations, hitting at a 28% clip ($1.56 ROI) with foreign shippers coming off 180+ day layoffs. She’s out of a Group 1 winning sire and while the dam was 0 for 1 on the turf, the rest of the family is filled winners on the turf. However, given that the rest of the field appears rather even and a bit tough to decipher, she figures to be an over bet favorite– who admittedly still has a big shot to win. For that reason, I’ve landed on 10 Una Luna who should be a square price given her poor running line last out. She certainly did not run well that day, but that was likely more a product of setting the pace for the first time in her career– likely not her preferred running style. When out in front, she managed to set a fast pace that largely fell apart, evident by a pair of 50-1 long shots hitting the superfecta. If she manages to return to her preferred running style her prior races make her a major player. 4 Sister Hanan has put in two solid maiden efforts since switching to the turf and now steps up to face winners for the first time. Trainer Ben Colebrook has interesting numbers with turf maiden breakers, going 3 for 34 (9%, $5.11 ROI). While the percentage is low, two of the three winners were 35/1 plus. Furthermore, 4 Sister Hanan’s effort last out was visually impressive as she rated kindly and showed an explosive kick down the lane when asked. She’ll need to take another step forward, but certainly possible in only her fourth career start. 1 Equal Measure and 7 Restructure are horses who figure to take some money, but given the layoff for 1 Equal Measure and back to back poor efforts for 7 Restructure, I’m looking to beat the pair on the win end and in exotics.
Race 2 – 3YO MSW $50k – Dirt – 1 1/16 M
Selections: 6-3-7-9
The first of two maiden races on the card is led by a pair of Todd Pletcher runners. Of the two, I’ve landed on 6 Gimme Some Mo as my top selection. The running line from the debut doesn’t look overly impressive but upon further inspection, he actually put in a decent effort for a career debut. Bet down to 2-1, he broke sluggishly from the outside and trailed the field. From there he made a middle move through fast fractions and ending up dueling on the lead with three other horses, widest of them all. He never put in a serious bid but these are the type of moves that never pan out, especially with a first time starter and fast early fractions. Furthermore, Pletcher had strong numbers with second time starters in maiden special weights, 30%, $1.88 ROI. The second Pletcher entrant, 3 Candy Tycoon, is likely to be the shorter price of the two given the backing of this horse in every start. He entered his debut at Saratoga as a buzz horse, labeled as the best 2YO in the Pletcher barn, but ended up a disappointing 3rd. After another 3rd place finish and a failed turf attempt, he put in a credible effort last out at Gulfstream, dueling on the lead and just getting nailed on the wire. There’s no doubt that he’s a realistic winner but between the continued backing at the windows and not standing out on speed figures, he’s a worthy bet against as the favorite. The bigger problem with this race is the lack of other contenders to back. 1 Trove is a $650k purchase but outside of a stretch at Saratoga this summer, Bill Mott usually doesn’t have them cranked first time out. I’ve landed on 7 Elusive Rider and 5 Tons of Gold to round out the superfecta. They both have similar profiles as horses who lack early speed but have put in big runs, closing into fast fractions. The race doesn’t project to have much speed so they may be fighting for minor awards.
Race 3 – World of Trouble Sprint Stakes $150k – Turf – 5 F
Selections: 2-1-5-6
I have no knocks on the likely favorite 1 Shekky Shebaz. He towered over the claiming crown field he faced last out and easily took that field gate to wire. Two back he put in a solid effort against some of the best sprinters in the country in the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint. Given the rail draw and presence of Paco Lopez, you can assume that he’ll likely vie for the early lead. However, given the presence of the ultra fast 6 Pay Any Price and 8 Carotari it figures to heat up on the front end. For that reason, that I’ve landed on 2 Texas Wedge. He’s likely going to sit the perfect trip right behind the trio of pace setters and take advantage of the projected blazing pace. I fully admit I don’t love the concept of taking a horse coming from off the pace at Gulfstream in a 5 F turf sprint but 2 Texas Wedge has proven he can rate and still win in these shorter turf sprints. In a similar vein, 5 Fielder has proven similar proven in terms of his running style. While he’s not a winning type, his speed figures fit and his style fits the race flow well. Even though he’s been running at tracks a step below the top tier, he’s been facing some quality fields. He’s more of an underneath play at a double digit price rather than a major candidate. It’s also hard to discount 6 Pay Any Price who has an abundance of speed and could hold as the speed of speed. I do have concerns that he may be dueling with a horse to his inside (1 Shekky Shebaz) and outside (8 Carotari), which is never a favorable spot.
Race 4 – 3YO MSW $50k – Dirt – 7 F
Selections: 10-9-6-7
I’m leaning on the chalk in Race 4, ultimately landing on one of the first time starters over some of the other horses with experience. The China Horse Club / Winstar owned 10 Market Analysis goes first out for the dangerous Todd Pletcher who is 28% with $1.78 ROI with maiden special weight debuters on the dirt at Gulfstream. The pedigree & $250k purchase price supports that notion he should be a good horse. Honor Code wins with 36% of his first time starters, well above average and one of the better numbers for a sire. Additionally, the dam was stakes placed sprinting on the dirt. I slightly prefer 10 Market Analysis to the likely favorite 9 Unconquered Lea, who does have an experience edge on the former. While he does go out for low profile connections, he took solid money in debut off an impressive work tab. He dueled on the lead that day and held on for a decent 3rd place finish. On the concerning side, Ben Perkins is only 2 for 17 (12%, $1.60) with second time starters at the maiden special weight level. While 6 Attachment Rate and 7 Ghost Game put in non-efforts in their career debuts, Dale Romans has impressive stats second time out — 20%, $2.14 with second time starters at the maiden special weight level. I won’t be surprised if either outs run their odds in a field that is lacking overall.
Race 5 – Ladies Turf Sprint $150k – Turf – 5 F
Selections: 2-5-9
Morning line favorite 2 Girls Know Best looks extremely logical after two solid efforts against graded stakes company (excluding the off the turf effort last out). While neither of those ended with a victory, both were efforts that would be tough to beat in this spot. She should find herself on the lead, always dangerous in 5 F turf sprints. 5 Jean Elizabeth tries the turf for the first time and doesn’t possess much turf pedigree, but she has run well on two other turf surfaces. She’s certainly been a winning type, winning 12 of 18 career starts. She should be forwardly placed or on the lead in a race that doesn’t have a ton of speed for a 5 F sprint. While 9 Miss Deplorable is listed as 20-1 morning line, she’ll likely be a much shorter price. Her effort last out can be excused as she likely doesn’t want to go the 7 ½ F. Her races two and three back are efforts that would be competitive in this spot. She showed her versatility two and three back, rating off the last in her 2nd place finish at Monmouth and taking them gate to wire in her win at Delaware.
Race 6 – South Beach Stakes $150k – Turf – 7 ½ F
Selections: 9-6-3-5
The South Beach Stakes features a full group of older fillies going 7 ½ furlongs on the turf. The class of the field is clearly the morning line favorite 6 Mitchell Road who exits a victory in the My Charmer Stakes where she was the overwhelming 2-5 favorite with a significant pace advantage. While she ran well that day and has plenty of back class against graded stakes competition, she should face significantly more pace pressure in this spot. Horses such as 2 Hidden Facts stretching out and 4 Conquest Hardcandy should give her ample company on the front end. There is no doubt that 6 Mitchell Road is significantly better than those foes but she’s never won rating if she can’t make the lead. Even if she does make the lead, it will be a difficult task taking the field gate to wire. Given the difficulty that 6 Mitchell Road will face on the front end, I’ve landed on 10 Getmotherarose as my top selection. On paper, she looks a little slow and out classed by some of her rivals. However, her effort last out in the N2x was visually impressive, closing wide into moderate fractions on an Aqueduct turf course that was favoring inside runners. She’ll need to take a step forward off that effort but as a newly turned 4YO and a May foal, it’s certainly not out of her scope. 3 Atomic Bomb put in a flat effort out in the Winter Memories Stake at Aqueduct despite a fine trip. She might appreciate getting back to firm turf and has room to improve in only her 5th career start. I also want to mention 5 Deviant (FR) who was my top selection in the Tropical Park Derby just under a month ago. She was a horse who appeared to possess some potential coming off the layoff shipping from England and putting in a quality effort at Churchill, closing into slow fractions after taking decent money at the windows. She just never got into the race in the race last out, trailing by 13 lengths and not appearing on the screen she was so far back. She still managed to put in a decent run closing into fast fractions, but never really had a chance given how far out of the race she was. I don’t think the slight cut back helps, but if she is able to race closer and maintain her late kick she could have a chance at a square price.
Race 7 – G3 Fred W. Hooper Stakes $150k – Dirt – 1 M
Selections: 8-5-10
I’m unfortunately not that creative in the Grade 3 Fred Hooper Stakes. While there is a big field of 14, I ultimately landed on the morning favorite 8 Free Enterprise. While it took four starts for the expensive son of Curlin to break his maiden, he’s won back to back races since. His last race wasn’t much more than a paid workout, but from a visual standpoint it was everything you’d like to see from an odds on favorite. He sat off the pace, raced wide and still managed to pull away easily with little urging. The 2nd place finisher, Caretaker, has run back twice and put in solid efforts further validating 8 Free Enterprise’s victory. He figures to sit an ideal trip behind the plethora of speed horses, able to make the first move on the pace setters. 5 Phat Man is another who figures to benefit significantly from the projected fast pace. Last seen in the Grade 3 Harlan’s Holiday, he sat behind solid fractions and closed well, finishing right behind Pegasus-entrant War Story. While his fastest races are slower than some of the likely short-priced horses, he should be able to take advantage of the fast fractions. Former Kentucky Derby runner 10 Gray Magician had the look of a promising 4YO before putting in a non-effort in the Grade 2 San Antonio Stakes at San Anita. That day he managed to save ground throughout but never put in a serious bid. I’m willing to give him one more chance as the races two and three back are good enough to compete with this group & Peter Miller wheels him back in 28 days with a consistent work tab.
Race 8 – G3 La Prevoyante Stakes $200k – Turf – 1 ½ M
Selections: 4-6-10
The La Prevoyante Stakes kicks off the late pick 5, presenting betters with any interesting proposition on the morning line & likely post time favorite 6 Lady Paname (FR). When she came over to the US for Chad Brown she put in two strong efforts, closing into fast fraction in both starts. While both were strong efforts, she does not stand out from a speed figure stand point in this spot and also comes off an extended layoff. The layoff is less of a concern as Chad is a borderline ridiculous 29%, $1.99 ROI off 240+ day layoffs in turf routes. However, given she’ll be a short price I’ve landed on 4 Mean Mary as my top choice. She enters only her 5th career start but should have a pace advantage on this group and I hope she can take them gate to wire. She’s never gone farther than a 1 ⅛ but the pedigree supports the further stretch out. Scat Daddy is a strong distance influence and the dam is a Dynaformer mare who is a half to a horse who won going 1 5/16 M and 1 ½ M. Independent of the distance, her last race was a strong effort, setting solid fractions and holding on for the victory despite the other pace attendants finishing towards the back half of the field. 10 Get Explicit is not a winning type but has a class edge over the rest of the field and has run well in his last two starts at a 1 ½ M. I would consider him more underneath and in exotics than on the win end or including in multi-race bets.
Race 9 – G2 Inside Info $200k – Dirt – 7 F
Selections: 11-7-2-5
The G2 Inside Info is absolutely loaded with speed, six to eight of the horses entered can be considered front runners or horses who have had success on the lead. Given the fact that 7F is a tough distance to wire to begin with, this race should be a near lock to feature a hot pace. For that reason, I’ve landed on 11 Pink Sands, who should appreciate the fast pace in front of her. I do have concerns that she might be slightly better at a mile than today’s 7F but she does have a win on the Gulfstream course at the distance. Her run in the Rampart Stakes was an excellent effort closing from ten lengths off into average pace fractions for the distance & level. Today’s pace setup should be even more beneficial to her running style. I have no arguments with the likely favorite 7 Spiced Perfection, who comes off an easy win in the Go for Wand Handicap. I’ve simply landed on 11 Pink Sands instead as she’ll likely be four to eight times the price. Similar to 11 Pink Sands, she should be able to rate off the speed and sit the perfect trip. Her front running style in the Go for Wand was more of a product of the lack of a true pace setter than her preferred running style. Outside of those two, I find it difficult to separate the speed horses and think they will all hurt each other’s chances. I would lean on 2 Wildwood’s Beauty or 5 Blamed, but do not have a strong opinion.
Race 10 – G3 W. L. McKnight Stakes $200k – Turf – 1 ½ M
Selections: 10-1-7-3
The male counterpart to the La Prevoyante Stakes seems like a somewhat straightforward affair. I’m leaning on 1 Red Knight and a trio of Mike Maker horses who have a commanding presence in the race. I have no major knocks on 1 Red Knight who is a horse that fits from a class perspective and excels at the mile and a half distance. However, at a short price, I do have slight concerns that he will need some semblance of pace to run into and that is lacking in this field. For that reason, I’ve landed on 10 Temple who has much more tactical speed, often being forwardly placed at much shorter distances. There are slight concerns about the distance as he’s never gone this far but did run relatively well earlier in the year going 1 5/16 M at Kentucky Downs. He raced on the lead that day and held on for a decent 3rd place finish. I thought his effort last out in the Tropical Park Derby was excellent as he made up significant ground in a slow paced race on a Gulfstream turf course that was kind to speed at that point in the meet. It doesn’t hurt that Irad stays aboard and if he can handle the distance I think he has a shot at a decent price. 7 Cross Border profiles similarly to 1 Red Knight as a horse who fits logically from a distance and class stand point. He’s another who has enough tactical speed to stay somewhat close to the pace. 3 Apreciado warrants consideration as the 6YO seems to get better with every start. His 2nd place finish in the claiming crown race was further validated when Muggsamatic came back to finish 2nd in the Sunshine Millions Turf Stakes and Tusk won the Grade 3 Tropical Turf Stakes. I’m going to try to beat 12 American Tattoo (ARG) who will likely be a short priced based off of dirt form. There isn’t a ton of turf pedigree and Pletcher is a poor 2 for 21 (10%, $0.96) going dirt to turf in graded stakes.
Race 11 – G1 Pegasus World Cup Turf $1M – Turf – 1 3/16 M
Selections: 3-4-10-12
The Pegasus World Cup Turf drew an outstanding field with horses coming from all over to form a deep, competitive field. I’ve landed on one of the shorter priced horses in 3 Without Parole (GB). I found his placing in the Breeders Cup Turf Mile interesting as it came with no prep races in the US. He ran well that day off the layoff to finish a decent 3rd behind the two best turf milers in the country in Uni and Got Stormy. Now he’s had more time in the Chad Brown barn and just a repeat of his Breeders Cup effort makes him a major player. I seriously considered putting 4 Saddler’s Joy on top as he’s one of my favorite horses in training. He’s had a strong start to his 7YO campaign and with his last three efforts all being good enough to win here. Even his return race at Gulfstream can be excused as he was buried on the inside. As is the case with Sadler’s, he needs a bit of racing luck and a jockey who can time his run perfectly, which makes him a tough proposition. 10 Mo Forza has been a rapidly improving horse for Pete Miller and has ripped off four straight victories. His effort in the Grade 2 Mathis Brothers was extremely impressive as he made a long sustaining move wide around the turn and won rather easily. It was a borderline premature move but impressive that he could sustain that run.
Race 12 – G1 Pegasus World Cup $3M – Dirt – 1 ⅛ M
The Pegasus World Cup field had quite a week with the unfortunate scratches of Breeders Cup runners Omaha Beach and Spun to Run. While there is undoubtedly less star power, it’s arguably a more competitive field and better betting race. It’s difficult to determine who will go off as the post-time favorite. Arguments can be made for a number of contenders. The two California based horses, 6 Higher Power and 10 Mucho Gusto, have a strong chance to go off as the favorite. 6 Higher Power exists a solid 3rd place finish in the Breeders Cup Classic and had some solid backing in that race. 10 Mucho Gusto makes sense as the favorite as an improving 3YO who has figures that fit, but importantly goes out for the Baffert barn with new rider Irad Ortiz. While he’s 15-1 on the morning line, 3 Diamond Oops would not surprise as the favorite either. He’s a horse who took serious money in the Mr. Prospector Stakes against quality horses in XY Jet & Imperial Hint and managed a visually impressive victory. There is solid buzz on the horse and he fits the race from a race design/pace setup and a speed figure standpoint. Prediction:
Higher Power 8/5
Mucho Gusto 9/5
Diamond Oops 5/2
Tax 7/2
Pace: Even with the defections of forwardly placed horses Omaha Beach and Spun to Run the pace still figures to be a contentious one. Horses from the extreme inside, 1 True Timber & extreme outside, 12 Bodexpress figure to be aggressively ridden to gain the lead. 8 Mr Freeze draws in between and is always forwardly placed involved in the pace. Based on pace figs, those three are likely to contend for the early lead with 3 Diamond Oops on the stretch out and 10 Mucho Gusto close behind, likely in the second wave. The presence of those five, their pace figs and running style ensure that the pace should be a hot one.
Analysis: The scratch of Omaha Beach was obviously unfortunate from an equine standpoint, but also as an opportunity to bet against a short priced favorite. While I thought Omaha Beach was an extremely talented horse who was the most likely winner of the race, he didn’t necessarily stand out from a speed figure stand point.
The scratches have not affected the selection of my top pick 2 Tax. This selection is based on the value he should offer. Unfortunately with the scratches, he’ll be closer to 3-1 than his 8-1 morning line, however, even in the 3-1 range I think he presents a solid betting opportunity. The overachieving former maiden claimer put in a strong 3YO campaign, capped with an excellent performance in the Grade 3 Discovery. He ran well that day rating off the pace and putting in a strong bid against Performer who will likely be one of the better older horses in the country this year. The speed figure came back as a career best and he’s liable to take another step forward 2nd off the brief layoff. He also figures to receive the perfect trip, one that could be similar to his Discovery run. Breaking from the two post with speed to his inside he figures to be able to get right to the rail and sit four to five lengths off the projected fast pace. From there he should be able to make one run passing tired pace setters. At 3-1 or higher, Tax will be my play.
10 Mucho Gusto was a horse who really won me over during this past summer. His effort in the Grade 1 Haskell was an excellent effort as he ran stride for stride with the 3YO champ Maximum Security. From there he set fast fractions in the Travers but still managed to hold on for a decent 3rd. There’s no doubt that his Oklahoma Derby was extremely disappointing as the 4-5 favorite. He ran near a slow pace and was out-finished by two horses who went off at over 35-1. However, since then Baffert has given him time and put some serious works into him, mostly noticeably a bullet out of 58 on January 4th. Baffert has excelled with these types of layoffs when targeting a stakes race as a return, hitting with 29% and a healthy $2.16 ROI (Dirt, 90-150 day layoff, GS & STKs). He figures to be in an interesting position from a trip standpoint. He’s shown versatility in the ability to race on the lead or rate off the speed. Irad would be wise to let some of the others battle for the early lead and tuck 10 Mucho Gusto behind them in the first wave. If he’s not too close to a blistering pace, he could have first run at the tiring pace setters. While I think he’ll be too short on the win end to bet, he’s a major contender.
8 Mr Freeze will be happy to finally end avoid Tom’s d’Etat after two consecutive losses. While those weren’t necessarily close losses, it does demonstrate the class and ability of 8 Mr Freeze as Tom’s d’Etat would likely be a short priced favorite if entered here. As discussed before, the pace is obviously a major concern for 8 Mr Freeze as there is plenty of early speed. However, when you consider the likely price & the possibility of 8 Mr Freeze being the ‘speed of speed’ he’s a worthy inclusion on tickets. From a race design perspective, there is also a scenario where 1 True Timber isn’t as aggressively ridden and 12 Bodexpress can’t make the lead from his outside post position. While I don’t think this is the likeliest of pace setups, it would put 8 Mr Freeze on a comfortable lead where he has plenty of races that are as fast as of today’s entrants.
I fully admit 3 Diamond Oops and 6 Higher Power are horses who have big shots in here and I won’t be the least bit surprised when they win. I’ll have them on a few backup tickets if I really nail the sequence beforehand, but at their project odds I think the value will be to play against. 3 Diamond Oops has really turned into a nice horse since his 2nd place finish in the Vanderbllt at Saratoga over the summer. His Breeders Cup Dirt Mile can be tossed as he clearly didn’t appreciate the surface and had an awful beginning. There’s no doubt his effort in the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector Stakes was a solid one as the fig came back a career best, but that was at 7F and he received a near perfect setup. Now he stretches out to 1 ⅛ M for the first time in career and the pedigree is iffy if he can handle the distance. With those question marks at a short price I’m looking to beat.
I’ll admit, 6 Higher Power is a horse that seems popular in horse racing circles but just hasn’t impressed me. No doubt his 5 length victory against McKinzie in the Pacific Classic was an impressive one but his two efforts since have average in my opinion. It’s fair to cite poor breaks in both those starts as excuses, but given his likely short price in today’s race I’m looking for reasons to beat.
4 Seeking the Soul and 7 War Story are obvious candidates to the hit the board underneath with the projected pace scenario. The scratches should affect their 30-1 morning line but no doubt should offer value.
Selections: 2-10-8-7