unday October 11th
So, normally I would be writing up the Sunday Santa Anita card, but man, even as an avid fan and supporter of SA, we need to call this card as it is, not a good one. 30 horses pre-scratch in the early pick 5, and the late sequence not a whole lot better. So, for today, I pivot to covering what has been a terrific debut bet to the menu, the Golden Hour Pick 4. A player friendly 15% takeout and $1 minimum base bet makes this one of the better bets in racing. The sequence is the final two races at Santa Anita and Golden Gate when both tracks are running. A shout out to my bud and regular Golden Hour player @smxgeoff “FumanChewy” who has hit 5 of 6 of these bets since they began. Reminder, SA action is on tomorrow for Columbus day with an 8 race card starting at 1p PST.
Sequence:
Leg 1: Santa Anita Race 8 Leg 2: Golden Gate Race 8 Leg 3: Santa Anita Race 9 Leg 4: Golden Gate Race 9
Tickets:
2,5,8,9 2,8,9
1,3 1,3
6,10 1,2,4,6,7,10,11,12
1,2,5,7,9 1,2,7
($160) ($144)
Leg 1: SA Race 8 MD CLM $50k Ca Bred 2YO’s 6.5F Dirt
Pace and distance key factor in this race for these 2YO’s as it will be the first time going this far for all but 2, and those that have gone this far have showed little to no pace. The favorite, #9 Wedding Groom has been the only horse to show early speed so far, however could not hold that speed at 5.5F for a victory. This one gets a rider upgrade to Rispoli, but keep in mind Rispoli is much better on turf, and came into this week 1/11 on the main track. Breeding says distance should not be an issue, with Hard Spun as sire and Dam a turf route specialist. Will be a short price and likely wont hold much value, but with the early speed, breed, and jock upgrade would need to use horizontally. #8 Cozy Bear for Ryan Hanson is a must include for me here, as this one has got had some betting interest in first two starts at the window, and after being put into chase mode in each of those efforts, Hanson had him break on top in recent work and stayed clear of workmate while breezing with confidence. Clocker made note that this one is showing big improvement. #2 Investment Account drops in from MSW (and tough MSW company at that) and comes back to dirt. Works have not been stellar, but the breed on this horse for the distance today is encouraging. Showed a glimpse of some late kick ability in his debut at SA, running final 1/8 in 13 flat while making up some ground. Going from route to sprint here may allow that late kick to show some more. If it’s a staggerfest, or 8,9 duel up front, the 2 seems most logical to pick up the pieces. Of the first time starters, I am more interested in Miyadi’s #5 Lovesick Blues. Works have been okay, nothing flashy but this one has some good breeding for firsters. Dam won on debut and Grazen’s specialty are these dirt sprints. Normally I would use Bonde firsters without concern, but Tourist babies are off to a very cold start and are 1 for 24 on first time starters.
Leg 2: GG Race 8 Allowance $8k 3YO+ 1 7/8M Turf.
Small field of 6 here with two entries from Ellen Jackson who is 0 for 27 at the meet with both horses appearing to be up against it here. This is a unique 15 furlong race on the turf, and when you have long distance runs like this, speed can be even more dangerous as timing our the moves for these jocks is more difficult. The #1 Colour Me Happy for Blaine Wright has that dangerous speed, where only the outside horse for Jackson could prove to be only early contention. Last out horse won gate to wire at 12F but lead was diminishing quickly late. Does have best figure in this group on Thorograph, but like with the rest of the group, extra distance will be the question. Will be coupling with #3 Jimmy D for Jonathan Wong, whose attempts over 9F have proved to be unsuccessful in the past but Wong has the confidence to bring him back for this marathon distance here today with hot rider Evin Roman who has been 27% with Wong horses. Wong took this horse over in June and since has gone 3 for 4 with him (won last three) all in same fashion with this one showing big turn of foot kicking home late past horses in the stretch. Clearly horse is liking the new barn and the Golden Gate grass. Like having the front end and late kick threats here to get by in this leg.
Leg 3: SA Race 9 OC $20k Ca Bred 3YO and Up. 5.5F Turf
Another Cal Bred event here at SA, and this one is a good competitive full field. Will cut this field in half in terms of contenders. I feel most wil spread here, so getting skinny on one ticket on this leg could get you some contrarian leverage if you get by. Looks like plenty of speed here, no surprise for the 5.5F dash but good chance this is contentious upfront. This has me on #10 Brix as my top pick in here for Baltas and red hot Juan Hernandez at 6/1. Chased very hot middle fractions in last race to dull the late kick there at this level, against a good group, but has shown on multiple occasions the ability to run by horses late. As a 4YO, this one should still have some improve in him and figures are not far off from top in this group here today, where pace scenario alone could close that gap. I think both cutback horses here make sense in #6 Fly to Mars and #12 Golden Doughnut. Fly to Mars normally runs stall and pounce trips, which could be the winning move here with speed in front and a middle PP. Horse has multiple changes today, as he cuts back, gets blinkers, and has a jock change so that much change at 5/2 always screams value concern to me, but wouldn’t leave off tickets. #12 Golden Doughnut has failed to show a competitive spirit in turf routes. If the mental aspect of this is the issue, wont be much different here today, but I am willing to take a shot if anywhere close to the ML odds for a horse that cuts back for the first time and whose dam was a turf sprint winner. Could be the change he needs as he’s shown strong middle moves in majority of tries. Outside post is tough as we will see if Franco goes to the front or takes back and makes the middle move, hard to say as he’s done both tactics in the past. #1 I Will Not comes back from his time off from a trip to Dubai with the O’Neill contingent earlier this year. Taking him along as a 3YO should tell you he is well thought of and the works coming in off the break have been strong. Square Eddie as a sire always dangerous in these statebred sprints, good value here. #7 Coalinga Road is another 3YO in here against older that is intriguing as he tries winners for the first time and Carla Gaines gets Rispoli to stay on. Coalinga Road has some successful turf sprinting sibs too, showing more room for improvement in figures. For deeper tickets, would include the #2 and #11. #2 Zipper Mischief has the top thorograph figure of this bunch, but has not proven to be able to run by horses late or stave off outside pressure. If gets loose on the lead, could be dangerous, otherwise up against it. #11 is 3rd off a 2 year layoff and last out had serious trip trouble to excuse it. All right to improve here today.
Leg 4: GG Race 9 CLM $12.5k 3YO’s and Up 8.5 All Weather
Normally I would be shy about using Square Eddie’s longer than a mile, but again I feel a pace advantage here in this race with #1 King Eddie certainly on the lead early and it could be without pressure. King Eddie gets back to preferred surface after two flops on Del Mar dirt, as he is 10 for 12 in hitting the board on the all weather surface. He has run past 1M twice in his career, winning one and losing the other by a head. At 6-1, big value for the pace advantage and positive changes here with a bug boy who has won on him before. Jonathan Wong is 30% in his career off the claim, and #7 Soberano was claimed for $12.5k out of the Bell barn last out. All turf performances of late, but has ran well on the tapeta (5:2-1-1). Is only 4 so has room for improve, and with improvement from past figures likely based on the barn move and age, this one should make plenty of sense in here to be coming late for King Eddie. These two are the must uses from this race. If going deeper, #2 (other Wong with gigs that fit) #5 (claim of Mandella with past success on Tapeta) and #9 (back to preferred surface with familiar jock and double the odds from same condition vs. tougher group 2 back).