Fair Grounds Racing Analysis — Sunday, December 16, 2018, by Neil Petrocelli

Need to get off the schneid quick today.  Always hoping for a price, but not building a case where there is none….no overthinking, no over-handicapping…..

Race 1:  5 – 6 – 7

The opener is a NW3L – going with Khaleesi’s Gift to make it two in a row.  In a field where many have spent time in the ‘condition’ we’ll go with the one who’s on the rise.  She wheels right back off a big win, Mena stays, and has been consistent of late. Paper Doll, back to back 2nds make her formidable, likely has her going favored, 2nd again?  Stellar Magic, likes 3rd should be there again.

Race 2:  3 – 6 – 2

Assuming this will stay on the grass, Fast Boat, after showing potential early on, now finds him dropping down the class ladder.   A repeat of any of his grass races should be enough. Blowin Smoke – drops off the claim – likely for the condition – should be formidable off the mini freshening.  Tapit City, ran in some classy maiden races, not very competitively, then Indiana’s grass woke him up.  May perhaps like FG grass, strong connections.

Race 3:  2 – 5 – 3

Of those that have run, nothing jumps off the page, in fact they seem to be searching for a level where they’re competitive.  So let’s go with a firster. Ganso Galopante comes from a top barn, has the steadiest of work patterns – choice of rider concerns – but maybe Carrero climbs aboard in the a.m.  Warriors Gem has shown speed with better, clears here on the quick turnaround.  Today marks 3rd race in less than 5 weeks – too much?  Jerrys Pridenjoy exits the fastest Md Special with a winner who won off by himself.  Gets a share.

Race 4:  3 – 2 – 4

Musical Man improves off last, where he had a rough trip.  Second time going long. Mayhaw Jelly drops into statebred company off very decent 5th in open, jock stays.  Mister Intuition looking for a big turnaround with barn switch.  Last work jumps off page.

Race 5:   3 – 1 – 7

Think there is enough speed to set it up for the consistent Flatter the Queen, who has shown stalking ability.  Cha Mono saves ground, swings out, finishes.  Senator Robert drops significantly, may enjoy the cut back in distance, Sutherland back aboard.

Race 6:  3 – 2 – 9

Heavens Whisper  takes a significant class drop, nice works coming into this.  Sits, stalks and finishes. Fresh of the maiden score,  Glance,  from a top notch barn, also has a couple of good, maintenance works coming in.  Booneville Chapel – takes them as far as she can, Hernandez stays, has the speed to clear and minimize possibility of being wide in first turn.  Drawback, been at the condition a while…

Race 7:  6 – 5 – 3

Diamond Tap moved prematurely in only long race, should be formidable on the stretchout.  Outstanding last work in preparation.  Sun Studio top barn, willing to forgive the last where she broke last, based on the works, will be forwardly placed throughout.  Broome may be the speed, and will try to sneak away.  

Race 8:  7 – 9 – 10

Killeen wheels right back of the win and Sharp claim.  Based on yearling price, was cut out to be a good one – likes the course.  Wild Score should prove formidable in his return from a layoff and to FG.  Never run this cheaply and off the layoff may be suspect. Miracle Mountain is consistent, completes the tri

Race 9:  8 – 5 – 7

Eights Wild statebred $5K seems to be his preferred spot.  Takes this with sweeping move off the turn. Whoz Talkin Now  consistent at the 5K level, statebred ranks now.  Another good showing. Gone Lucky will enjoy the return to the 5K class.

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