Racing returns in the Bay Area. In fact we are the only live track in California today. We were away last week and we return with what looks to be a great week of racing. 8 races today, 9 tomorrow, and 10 on Saturday. Very nice field sizes so far and expect that to continue with the absence of racing last week. In fact some of the races from last week were brought back today. Looking ahead to next week we have the El Camino Real Derby with a trip to the second leg of the Triple Crown the Preakness on the line. Current jockeys and trainers trending up include: Juan Hernandez who continues to dominate with a 30% win clip including 9 wins in his last 24 mounts. Francisco Monroy also had a good week of racing with 4 wins in 15 mounts and some going off at prices. Trainer Jonathan Wong has gone 9 for his last 26 and has slowly gone up to a 22% win clip. Trainer William Delia is having a nice meet with a high 34% win clip from 32 starters. Meanwhile trainer Steve Specht and Felix Rondan are surprisingly trying to get off the goose egg 0 for 16 and 0 for 25 respectively. Here are my picks for this Thursday card.
Race 1: 5.5 Furlongs $4,000 Claiming 4 year olds & up (7-5-3)
7 My Friend George makes his second start off a layoff. In his race last out he went wide going into the turn and didn’t really fire into the stretch. He has run well second off a layoff in the past and I’m siding toward this runner.
5 Tomasino was a close third last time out after pushing for the lead and fading. Does cutback to 5.5 furlongs today so the stretch won’t be too tiring hopefully. He is a 4 time winner over the Golden Gate surface which is second most behind our top pick.
3 Prince Cheval is an 11 year old son of Leroidesanimaux with 16 lifetime wins. However it has been quite some time since this geldings found the winner circle. In fact he is 1 for 11 here in the Bay Area. Most of the tapeta wins came over the Arlington surface in Chicago. No doubt he will be on the lead. Question is whether he will last.
Other to consider: This is a wide open event where the favorites are vulnerable but I don’t know which longshot will fire their race. One to look at is 6 Rock Slinger making his first start off a 3.5 month break. This horse does seem to run better second off the layoff but if a pace battle melts down late he might be the one coming on.
Race 2: 1 Mile Starter Allowance $50,000 3 year old Fillies (5-1-3)
5 Billy’sgotasingle comes off an off the pace win last time out. She didn’t have a lot of speed to run at and still went on to win from off the pace. She steps up in class to face starter allowance company and I like her odds (9/2 m/L) compared to our other picks.
1 Friend of Autism has never finished off the board in her 5 starts. A daughter of Oxbow I think she can sit off the pace battle (2 and 4). If she stalks close she will get first jump on the rest of the field. She has lost her last two races to very nice route runners so she could be next to win.
3 Born to Reign goes from a sprint to a route. This horse returns to the exact condition where she nearly pulled off a 23/1 shocker two back. She will stalk the pace and do her best running late. The question will be when she starts running. Price seems to be short too at 2/1.
Other to consider: 6 Ceeya Later is a big price horse to consider underneath. She is 12/1 on the morning line but she hasn’t been out of the exacta going two turns. In fact these races have been the best she’s done. Also a daughter of Clubhouse Ride who seems to produce winner after winner. She could get a good pace setup as well.
Race 3: 1 Mile $4,000 Claiming F & M 4 & up (3-2-4)
This is one of the races brought back from last Thursday. 3 Fruitfully appears to be the one to beat as the second choice. She comes in off a third place finish against slightly tougher. She gets class relief and could possibly end up going off favored once again as she has her last 5 times. If she can sit close off the leaders her stalk and pounce style fits.
2 Stormy Mist comes out of a common race with the top pick here. She carries a similar style to the top pick except she will be a bit further back. This horse seems to have a knack of getting into trouble, either going wide or getting poor breaks. If she has a clean trip I’m willing to give her another shot especially at 6/1.
4 Stratus Bird will go from a sprint to a route. She is a very fast horse sprinting and I expect her to go to the front. She appears to be the lone speed and with a jockey (William Antongeorgi iii) who can do his best with horses on the lead. Lone concern is will she be able to go all the way. I know she’s gone all the way before but if she’s stopping sprinting could she end up going too fast to finish.
Race 4: 5.5 Furlongs $12,500 Maiden Claiming 3 year old Fillies (2-7-4)
This is another race brought back from last week. 2 Gray Lives Matter will be the top pick here. She has finished second four straight times combined to be less than two lengths. She cuts back to 5.5 plus adds blinkers hoping to finish the job.
7 Toni Two Pocket in two tries since dropping into this condition has set the pace and weakened in the stretch. Jockey Hernandez hops aboard a horse elsewhere and picks up speed specialist Antongeorgi. If handled properly wire to wire shouldn’t be a surprise.
4 Baby Hang On climbs up the class ladder from maiden 8s. She passed a couple runners last time going 5 furlongs. Extra half furlong plus an apprentice giving the weight break could allow this horse to pass runners late. Trainer must feel confident about this runner by bumping her up in class however trainer is cold.
Others to consider: 8 Daniel the Dreamer is a runner coming in from Grants Pass. Horse draws leading jockey Juan Hernandez so could be interesting. 5 Oui Say No and 6 Keepinmypromise resemble similar patterns. Both have struggled down south and will ship north here looking for some class relief.
Race 5: 6 Furlongs $12,500 Claiming 4 year olds & up (4-2-6)
4 Stocked comes in off a win at this condition going 5.5 furlongs. He sat off the pace and made a run to get up in time. With the extra half furlong he should benefit even more. There also appears to be a pace setup for him.
2 Arno’s Mane Man has finished a close second his last couple tries against a lower level group of runners. He steps up in class and resembles a stalk and pounce running style. Has never won at this distance but does have three seconds. Top jockey gets aboard.
6 Write Me a Song is looking for his third win in a row. He appears to do his best running on the front end with that running style in his last two wins. However he has been able to run good races stalking the pace. With speed on the front end Catalino Martinez could try and stalk.
Others with an effect: 1 Grand Air and 5 Diction both are expected to battle for the lead. Both are expected to stop at the top of the stretch by firing each other plus the extra half furlongs don’t benefit them. If any get an easy lead then we could see wire to wire.
Race 6: 5.5 Furlongs $12,500 Maiden Claiming 3 year old Fillies (9-8-4)
9 Princess Rio is the top pick at 6/1. She cuts back from a route to a sprint thus she will have a stamina edge. She also drops in class from maiden 20 to this 12,500 condition. If the first timers fly up front look out late.
8 Pacific Silence in two starts thus far has gone on a roller coaster as far the claiming level she’s been in. Started from the bottom 8s up to 25 and now in the middle. She has been nothing but double digit odds in her two starts but if she runs back to her debut she could break through.
4 Smiling Grace will be making her second start. She drops in class from her debut so she can definitely improve. I remember she was one to keep an eye on opening day.
First time reports: 3 Stand in Your Love is a firster for leading trainer Jonathan Wong at 8/1. Odds are enticing and Wong has had success with debut maiden claimers 24% from his last 21 starters. 1 Kiss Ride Goodbye is a first timer for SoCal based Dan Blacker. Draws the unfavorable inside draw especially a negative for debuting runners. 5 Sailonsilvergirl was purchased for 52k at Keeland September sale. She’s in for 12.5 on debut. Trainer Jedd Josephson has gone 1 for his last 10 with first timers. 6 Way to Fire is a daughter of Coil. Has the jockey trainer duo of frank Alvarado and Steve specht. Morning line doesn’t give this horse much love at 15/1.
Race 7: 6 Furlongs $12,500 Claiming F & M 4 & up (4-1-7)
4 Hit It Twice appears to be the closest runner knocking on the door. She ran into a good filly last time who is still perfect. Rider switch to Antongeorgi could mean for this horse to send in a paceless race. Value is also there at 7/2.
1 Miss Lucky Lager is dropping in class after a bad race. However her race two back was not bad at all. She was able to make up ground. She draws the inside post today and I wonder could she send from the inside and try to go all the way. This race lacks speed and she’s gone wire to wire before in her open maiden debut race.
7 Biancas Mandate will return to the same condition she ran in last time. She took up rounding the far turn last time. In fact she finished well behind our top pick here. I want to see a clean race before I hop off this bus.
Others to consider: 5 Jaimi James missed by just a neck last time out. She’s stalked the pace and made a run two back against softer competition but I like how she performed routing last time. Gives her stamina and potential to turn in another good effort. 6 Unchaining Melody returns to NorCal after spending the winter in Arizona at Turf Paradise. She broke her maiden sprinting on turf and will give the tapeta a try today.
Race 8: 1 Mile $4,000 Claiming F & M 4 & up (6-9-5)
6 My Idol will get the nod for top pick. A few of these runners come out of a common event so if I ignore the last out race the lines impressive to me is this horse. She does best stalking midpack and coming on late. Also Quinn Howey is striking at 33% first off the claim which is an incredible clip.
9 Sure Magic didn’t fire first off the claim but also comes out of that common event. Ignoring that race the line for this filly isn’t bad. Stalking the pace to make a run late is what she does best. She also regains Silvio Amador who guided her to victory in her maiden.
5 Bold Ante will make her third time going two turns. She made up minimal ground last time out not getting by the eventual winner.
Others to consider: 1 Lizzy’s Inthegame has been a price horse I’ve liked quite a bit. Her best running comes late and if there’s a pace melt down she will be coming. Her lone win came routing. 7 English Empress drops in class after not firing against tougher. She did win from off the pace to break her maiden something this race could present. 8 Moon Rocket should be part of the leaders early on. If she’s given an easy lead watch out as she could wire the field. 4 Waverly Way makes her first start off a 2.5 month break. Daughter of kittens joy might need this race but is also dropping in class coming back from her freshening.
Best Bets:
Race 3 Fruitfully 2/1
Race 5: Stocked 7/2
Race 7: Hit It Twice 7/2
Price Plays:
Race 2: Ceeya Later 12/1
Race 6: Princess Rio 6/1
Race 8: Lizzy’s Inthegame 15/1, My Idol 6/1
Good competitive racing today with many wide open events. Same can be said tomorrow and this weekend. Good luck today!